Posted on 03/26/2020 9:48:04 PM PDT by jerod
TOKYO — Japan had only a few dozen confirmed coronavirus infections when the 30-something nurse with a slight sore throat boarded a bus to Osaka, the country’s third-largest city, to attend a Valentine’s weekend performance by pop bands at a music club.
Less than two weeks later, she tested positive for the virus, and the authorities swiftly alerted others who had been at the club. As more infections soon emerged from three other music venues in the city, officials tested concertgoers and their close contacts, and urged others to stay home. All told, 106 cases were linked to the clubs, and nine people are still hospitalized.
But less than a month after the nurse tested positive, the governor of Osaka declared the outbreak over.
Ever since the first coronavirus case was confirmed in Japan in mid-January, health officials have reassured the public that they have moved quickly to prevent the virus from raging out of control. At the same time, though, Japan has puzzled epidemiologists as it has avoided the grim situations in places like Italy and New York without draconian restrictions on movement, economically devastating lockdowns or even widespread testing...
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
The Chinese and the Japanese are adept are shadow play.
I know very well having lived in Japan for 34 years .
Japan’s excpetionalism isn’t, well exceptional
1. They wear masks at the best of time and gloves too. They’ve just stepped it up so that everyone wears one all the time
2. It is an extreme no-touch culture. No hugging, kissing, hand-shakes. It’s the anti-thesis of Italy and Spain
3. They are extreme in terms of hygiene, anti-septic etc.
But they have been taking this a bit lightly - Taiwan or Singapore is a better model to follow.
HOWEVER, that being said - what Taiwan or Singapore or Japan does is not transferrable to the USA - difference in culture and size render that not really a valid comparison. We can TRY what they did - and should - but it’ll never be a complete duplicate.
As to “lock downs don’t work” - that’s false.
1. China - Hubei - the lockdown limited it to Hubei, but that was AFTER the virus spread out. They’ve limited the spread since then
2. Rest of China - the lockdowns have worked. All the cases in March were tracked to Hubei.
3. Italy / Spain - they called for a lockdown but didn’t follow it. They went out, met and congregated, spreading the virus.
They get huge amounts of iodine in their diet
It isn’t the 0 to 17 year olds that are the sustainers of the world’s economies it’s the 18 to 65 year olds. Plenty of 18 to 50 year olds have been getting sick with this thing and are dying.
For your interest.
As of this morning, they are on their 5th day where they haven't exceeded their peak from March 21.
We cannot contain the outbreak.
We can only make sure it never gets so bad in a location that it overwhelms hospitals, and work hard for a good treatment.
So it is not a bad thing that Japan had a breakout of 100 cases, or that South KOrea is maintaining a steady 100 cases a day. That is controlled spread.
In places where we have locked down before there were any cases, we have just delayed the inevitable, at a horrendous cost. Even Andrew Cuomo now realizes that locking down an entire state because a county or city has a breakout doesn’t make a lot of sense. But we have locked down entire states that had fewer than 50 cases, meaning almost nobody has herd immunity.
We needed to be much smarter about when to lock down.
I would not be surprised if China has a hundred thousand deaths. They certainly didn’t have 3000 deaths. They cannot be trusted to provide any real numbers. There is no way they stopped the virus.
If you want a hint at whether lockdowns work, ask this question — why do places that ‘locked down too late’ keep saying that the rest of us are just weeks behind the same hell they are going through, when we locked down the same time they did?
Are they saying that the lockdown won’t make a difference?
Well, they actually HAD masks, because the culture is one of wearing masks.
Here we didn’t have enough masks, so we just told people not to wear them.
Although mask-wearing is not for the healthy, but for the sick; it keeps you somewhat from spreading germs, because if you cough or sneeze it gets mostly caught in your mask, and not in the air or on your hands.
Cases spiked, “as travelers returned from overseas”.
I have a son of my closest nephew now working in Japan.
I will be watching this closely. His parents and I skype with him once a week.
It also keeps the healthy from touching their nose or mouth.
Our economy has not seen a hit like this since the 1930s
We recovered from the Great Depression. It was painful and it took a long time but we did it. Recovering from death is impossible.
The other thing you really need to start thinking is the US is the engine of the World economy. It not just us that is in the balance
You think I don't know that? There simply is no scenario in which the economy gets back to normal any time soon. Our choices right now are between opening up everything up now when we have over 100,000 cases and rising and the economy crashing anyway when people start dying and self-quarantining anyway or between sticking it out a little longer, buying ourselves a bit more time to find a vaccine or cure, and then rebuilding our economy after the danger has passed.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
You cannot live in perfect safety ever. You MUST stop fantasizing that there is some sort of shut down that will keep you safe forever.
The lockdown was never about "perfect safety" because that's impossible. It's about flattening the curve and slowing the spread of infection ENOUGH so that our health care system can handle it. We only have so many ventilators and ICU beds available.
Flu kills more people every year, yet none of you go into hysteric panic over it.
Flu has a death rate of 0.1%. CV has a death rate of 3.4%. Also we have a vaccine for many flu strains. You are comparing apples to oranges.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-mortality-rates-2020-3
We need to stop with the panic mongering and start doing some serious cost data analysis of the effect of the solutions being purposed.
We have. The opinion of the medical community on whether our health care system can handle the projected cases of CV if we reopen everything now ranges from "Uncertain" to "Don't do it." I will wait until someone with an actual medical degree says we are past the peak. I don't hire barbers to fix my roof and I don't let Wall Street make my health care decisions for me.
I curious, do you know that the total nation wide serious/critical cases is 2,436?
That the daily rate of increase of serious/critical cases in the USA is pretty steady at 250?
I will do the math for you 250 x 100 days = 2,500. And that is total number of case so while that number is added to daily it will also be reduced by the number of resolved cases as people move out of the serious/critical category.
Do you know if you are under 60 with no underlying health issues your recovery rate is 99.96%?
The risk group for this is about 2% of the population. I am in that 2% high risk group and I see what an absurdity is being done here
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Sake. Cures anything.
No it doesn’t. Would you please the papers from Stanford, the Brits, Harvard, and even the guy who made the first claim
That the daily rate of increase of serious/critical cases in the USA is pretty steady at 250
That's not supported by the link, which shows 2,463 serious/critical conditions today and 2,122 serious critical conditions yesterday. 2,463 - 2,122 = 341, not the 250 you cited. But the number of total cases, and therefore the number of serious cases, is increasing every day. Take a look at the graphs provided on the link. They look like exponential curves to me. So the rate of increase is itself increasing. If you want the actual numbers for the US https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ shows:
March 21: 4825 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9400 new cases, 113 new deaths
March 23: 10189 new cases, 141 new deaths
March 24: 11075 new cases, 225 new deaths
March 25: 13355 new cases, 247 new deaths
March 26: 17224 new cases, 268 new deaths
Let's say our multiplier is 1.35, which seems to best approximate its growth in the US.
https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR2NQAFsqvbrVYvvkx59T8TNM1nmZJoaV8b-iKgGrKmXa-1DIRO-hUYF07c
As of this posting our current CV cases stand at 101,652. With our 1.35 multiplier tomorrow it will be around 137,230, the day after that 185,260, and 250,102 the next day. About a 250% increase in 3 days. At that point our health care system could handle it since only about 1% of CV patients require hospitalization and of those only 25% require ICU beds. 1% of 250,000 is 2,500 and 25% of 2,500 is 625. Now 625 for 30,000 ICU beds not taken up by non-CV patients isn't bad. But what happens if the cases keep multiplying by 1.35? Keep multiplying 625 by 1.35 and in 13 days you will have more CV-related ICU patients than ICU beds available (the link below says 70% of all ICU beds are already in use by non-CV patients).
https://www.medpagetoday.com/hospitalbasedmedicine/generalhospitalpractice/84845
Do you know if you are under 60 with no underlying health issues your recovery rate is 99.96%?
Oh, as a healthy young person I'm not actually worried about *dying* from CV, although if possible I'd like to avoid the permanent lung damage faced by many CV survivors, to say nothing of the sky-high medical bills. No, my primary concerns are a) avoiding becoming a carrier and infecting others who are at-risk and b) avoiding a scenario where I need to go to a hospital for some reason, say a car accident, and there is no space left for non-CV patients. Oh, and where the economy would enter a depression anyway.
Swine flu transmission rate: 1.5
CV transmission rate : 2-3
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
H1N1 killed 575,400 people.
https://www.verywellhealth.com/what-is-h1n1-swine-flu-770496
CV has so far killed 593,316.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Your numbers are not what is reported. There are over a half a million cases. There have been 27,250 deaths
Get your data straight
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.