Posted on 03/26/2020 9:19:50 PM PDT by DoodleBob
The US, China, and Italy (in that order) have the highest number of coronavirus cases in the world. But an analysis of coronavirus cases per capita — the number of cases per million residents — in various countries reveals a different story.
Switzerland, not China, tops the list of COVID-19 cases per capita, with 1,340 cases per million people. It's followed by Spain, then Italy.
The US, which has the highest number of coronavirus cases in the world — more than 83,000 — is low on the cases per capita list. Only 210 people in the US had been infected per million Americans as of Thursday morning. The US's case total continues to climb quickly, however, and a country's number of cases per capita changes constantly as new cases get reported. That, in turn, depends on how many people get tested.
Nearly 530,000 people in 175 countries have gotten the new coronavirus since December.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
for switzerland, covid-19 does not appear to be a function of density or culture per se, as the article and map linked shows:
as of the date of the article (march 19), the most cases seem clustered at selected national border cantons— basel-stadt, geneva/vaud, and ticino. zürich, for example, seems relatively untouched by comparison (and it has an extensive tram system).
This assumes nothing except that standardization has a better chance of enhancing the accuracy of the analysis.
Hey, I was first on FR!
‘You hurt my feelings.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3828581/posts?page=637#637
Look a couple replies up...
Anyway, the daily covid thread is a GREAT source!
Germany does not do post mortem diagnosis, unlike Italy. So they attribute their deaths to the underlying disease a patient may have had (pneumonia, diabetes, heart disease, etc)
As I read it Zurich has 1476 cases. The black number 9 centered on
Zurich on the map is just deaths.
L
The virus is an attack on liberal central planning. It thrives on big cities, cramped real estate and public/shared transportation. The much-derided “McMansion” is the safest type of home to live in.
Suffice it to say when China was reportedly burning people alive who checked into their “centers” with COVID-19 symptoms, once they decided to get rid of it, they had no civil liberties roadblocks standing in their way.
Oh, that’s interesting.
In absolute numbers (Lausanne), the highest total does not border Italy.
Even the total cases numbers are misleading.
“So far, New York has clocked 37,258 confirmed cases and 385 deaths from COVID-19”
What is that like 0.1%?
“This is laughable because it assumes the Chinese are telling the truth. Reality is that China almost certainly has far more cases than the US and Italy put together.”
Yes, honest folks have to believe China is concealing cases.
The funny thing is though, if you actually do believe China’s numbers, then you’d have to believe CV19 is not that bad, or China’s numbers would be way higher.
Yet we have a lot of people who both proclaim doomsday scenarios, and believe China’s numbers.
Both can’t be true.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Worldometer shows ~82K active US cases, but only ~2,100 are serious or critical.
Thanks DB, You did a good job of pointing out that our danger is not as bad as other countries yet, due to differing populations .
I had that thought a few days ago too, and also tossed around numbers vs population in a spreadsheet but never published it. I used it to try to calm down my freaking out wife.
There’s another covid19 monitoring site which has something similar, which they call “cases per 1M people”.
( https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ )
But I don’t care for that measure quite as much because some simpletons (like my wife) can’t envision what that means in terms of risk.
So for my own stats, I turned my results into “Ratio of Healthy to Contagious”. She understood that perfectly.
At the time, I said for example: “In MN, you’d have to shake hands with 25,000 people before you probably shook the hand of one person that was contagious. But in NY, if you shook hands with 900 people you’d probably have shaken one contagious person’s hand.”
In terms of China, they have a HUGE percentage of CURED patients, so it made more sense to use population divided by “active cases”. I used that for a while.
But then I realized that also has a flaw: MANY counties and countries are NOT bothering counting or reporting correct numbers for RECOVERED cases, so the count of “active cases” is too high as reported.
I am convinced that is because there is a LOT of testing going on, where someone is tested POSITIVE for the virus, and gets counted as a covid19 “case”, but gets sent home to self-quarantine and only reports back if they need hospital assistance before the virus clears itself. That person never gets tested again, and never gets counted as “recovered”.
For the moment, I am bummed out about using (population/total cases), OR (population/active cases) because differing countries and states and counties do more or less testing than others.
For now, I’m most in favor of estimating the relative risk for different areas by just using the (population / (”serious cases” times 50)) That’s because some of the experts are saying only 2% of [(diagnosed & undiagnosed) cases] become so serious they require hospitalization. It shouldn’t matter if you’d rather use a multiplication factor of 25 or 50 or 100 to determine “estimated active cases” as long as you are consistent.
This method of comparison will soon not work so well if doctors all over the country/world start using differing “cures”.
Switzerland did not close the borders to it’s neighbors until very recently and has kept most people working (all of the “fun” stuff is closed). Even now, the borders are open to a certain group (workers who come to Switzerland every day from Germany, Italy ..). These are not “seasonal” workers. Instead they live close to the border and have found good paying jobs here (nurses among others). There is no testing of these people unless they show obvious symptoms.
There is only "one" - Zurich.
Other cities include Basel, Luzern, Zug and Geneva.
The first three of those can be reached in about an hour from Zurich - Geneva in three to four. There is a lot of commuting to and from these cities.
The last page shows a map - the majority of the cases are in the cantons bordering Italy / France.
There is something very ODD that jumped out at me while studying today’s data.
You can see what I mean by pulling up this page...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
...then scrolling down to the chart, and clicking twice on
“Active Cases” which will show USA is first, then Italy, Then Spain, then GERMANY.
Note that Germany has half our “active cases” but only one hundredth of our “serious cases”!!!
I wonder why that could be? Their percentage of active cases that are “serious” is way too small compared to other regions. Are they perhaps using a “cure” there which they have not announced?
Data problem in Germany because they had more new deaths yesterday, 61, than serious cases, 23...
Makes no sense.
I know they count deaths differently.
Public transportation. Boom... if only the media would tell that truth. This is spreading faster where public transportation is common. That includes buses also. Viva la rural life.
You are right - that tiny country totally surrounded by Italy is the global winner in the per capital Coronavirus challenge.
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