Posted on 03/26/2020 10:52:24 AM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.
Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
Another Emily Latella moment.
Lots of Greta graduates over the last few weeks.
He saw that the results didn’t match his models and realized he slipped up. Maybe he misplaced a decimal somewhere and knows it and is just now fessing up....
“It’s just a 6 trillion dollar mistake...no harm, no foul...I think I’ll go for a walk now....mmmmkay? Can I pick up a latte for anyone?”/s
you’re right.
we even got flamed here for calling this whole thing out for what it was.
It wasn’t nothing but it sure as heck wasn’t worth destroying the economy and giving away our rights over
Except that is also wrong. Oxford showed that you could create a model that hypotheses 50% infection, and that model would give you the current measured cases and death rate.
They did not claim, nor do any research, to show that they actually WERE 50% infected.
That will come in a couple of weeks when we roll out the antibody tests, and randomly sample populations. And I will be pleasantly shocked if any country is at 50%.
Probably tied to the climate change models.
jstolzen and Travis McGullible are two of the most ignorant posters I have ever seen in my nearly two decades on FR.
The Nate Silver of Epidemiologists
It’s social/economic terrorism. Pure and simple.
can someone link me to the wsj article from yesterday abouut them calculating the deaths incorrectly?
No msm are reporting this.
In fact, articles today are still touting the report as the go to and how this thing will last 18 months.
Or years
Or decades.
Whatever works best that day
If you test too much you will produce a fake epidemic. Our tests will create at least 1% false positive, although numbers are not published. The WHO tests had as much as 10% false positive.
Given the HYSTERIA around the topic, 10 MINUTES OF COMMON SENSE from a scientist in the field.
Has anyone VETTED the SCIENTISTS now surrounding & “advising” Trump? How many are leftist Democrats with a political agenda? Consider the STILL NOT CLEANED OUT Deep State INFECTED DOJ & God knows how many other government departments.
Have we ever been lied to by the managerial class in government whose jobs depend on how submissive they can keep the rest of us?
How many of them HATE TRUMP & his stated goal to DRAIN THEIR SWAMP?
Heard the stories that CDC employees wept when Trump beat Hillary? How objective would THOSE folks be collecting & analyzing the data? And wouldn’t a “SCARE” like this serve to open the tax slave (er PAYER) money sigot for them, as another government operation, to piss away on “research” (or whatever)?
Anybody know???
I didn’t think so.
One final thought: Could this just be another of the periodic tests conducted by Deep State leftists who would be more at home in Stalin’s Russia than Trump’s America to see if their century long socialist indoctrination in the GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS has enough of us sufficiently DUMBED DOWN to make their long awaited FINAL PUSH?
Just asking evidence based questions here.
I agree actually. I thought he said that in the article, that 50 percent may have already had it. I do think that is not a plausible number just as you say. However, if serological testing for antibodies statistically shows even 5 - 10%, that is still a game changer.
How dare you insinuate that this is gonna be ANYTHING but a Black Plague-style pandemic that will wipe out or affect at least minimum 30-50% of the world’s population?
The doomsday extreme preppers on the main Corona virus daily thread will be disappointed in you!
Yep. And the sturgeon general was on tv earlier wailing about how not enough people are taking this seriously enough.
Now I feel old. 😭
Ping to you concerning massive death counts.
Which now means he’ll be viciously discredited and suicided.
Don’t sleep on BobL, RummyChick, grey_whiskers,and a few others.
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