Posted on 03/25/2020 6:48:00 PM PDT by BusterDog
"Clinical course is predictable. 2-11 days after exposure (day 5 on average) flu like symptoms start. Common are fever, headache, dry cough, myalgias(back pain), nausea without vomiting, abdominal discomfort with some diarrhea, loss of smell, anorexia, fatigue.
Day 5 of symptoms- increased SOB, and bilateral viral pneumonia from direct viral damage to lung parenchyma.
Day 10- Cytokine storm leading to acute ARDS and multiorgan failure. You can literally watch it happen in a matter of hours.
81% mild symptoms, 14% severe symptoms requiring hospitalization, 5% critical."
The author of the post linked in this thread claims that he’s discharging 10-15 multifocal multifocal pneumonias every shift.
So, how many patients is this doctor seeing per shift? The average ER doc sees 2-3 patients per hour. A typical ER shift is 12 hours.
Unless he’s working 100 hour shifts, it is difficult to believe that 10-15 of his probable 25-40 daily patients have multifocal pneumonia, much less that this many patients with that diagnosis are being discharged by a single physician on a daily basis.
That one seemingly exaggerated statement makes me wonder how much else he might have embellished.
“ worldwide 86% of covid 19 patients that go on a vent die. Seattle reporting 70%. ”
Hmmmmmm.....
“If estimates of those people are correct then this thing is 1/10th as deadly as the flu.”
Please show us the math.
Right. You can’t. You’re full of crap.
The place was a ghost town. The normal ER patients were staying away. People were not driving, so little trauma. No shootings. No families. No noise.
It was the creepiest thing I’ve felt in a long time.
I asked where the Covid people were. The only ones coming in were intubated,tested, and sent upstairs. They had a no visitor policy, and an external testing site.
Under normal circumstances, there is a frequent and low-flying air ambulance that goes between two Level 1 trauma centers here. Since early March, no air ambulance traffic. Silence.
didnt happen until that incident.
Yeah. I saw that down the line. More than once I’ve assumed the /s without putting it there. God bless!
There are trillions and trillions of dollars at stake. The pending emergency relief to the United States, is but one example.
Irony: China is going to find out that our POTUS is a very astute student of Sun Tzu.
Payback’s a bitch!
SNL is a Doc..my daughter is very, very smart could be a Doc...didn't want to be. She's actually over the top smart...
Naw..I ain't guessing...Actually going to the the porch and burning a "Black Pearl" cigar..with a good beer. And my dogs....yeah!!
Listening to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcnvfCQK4QQ
You should listen....
I put the Ro on this bug at about 2.7.
It’s nice to be reminded once in a while. Thanks.
My wife had a small patch and treated it with a steroid based ointment for two weeks.
It's now been about 6 weeks and it hasn't returned.
“You should listen.... “
That post creeped me out.
To me, that makes sense because untreated hypertension can cause heart attack (and of course, stroke), but can also interfere with the kidneys. Add diabetes & some other things and you can end up with one heck of a sick patient unless that patient is well cared for & has kept these things under good control. Even then....????
At this point Ro s are sort of academic. I see on another board, New Orleans is in full melt down.
Question: why base your logic on something you can’t measure?
You can only plan a response on measurables. The data you are looking for won’t even have decent estimates until 2 to 3 years after the fact.
I think this is the most annoying question FluBros ask.
Besides every quote so far says 80% will have mildness. President Trump even says 80%! Yet, flubros KNOW it’s much better, right...
But by far be it from me to have to explain to you grade school math.
Let’s see:
X is the number of people infected in a given instance (not cumulative)
numInfected = x * .70 (who will get it) * .20 (who will be critical)
Now lets look at ICU bed availability. We’ll say 2e5 to be more than fair to the USA health care system. I think the true count is what, 1.5e5? Anyhow, we can push this hard in flubro direction, and still make a point.
Equation is now:
.14x >=2e5
Solving for x...
x >= 2e5/.14
x >= 1,428,571
As soon as in ANY GIVEN INSTANCE x >= 1.43e6, death rate will sky rocket, because health care above the bed count then becomes unavailable. Most of the critical care, then become die at home.
But its actually even worse than that. These critical cases will not be carefully placed where the perfect number of beds are available, and do you really think communities are going to take patients from hot bed communities?
What this means is, it will not take a .70 nationwide infection rate to generate huge death tolls. Infection hot beds will develop, those areas will run out of beds, deaths will snowball.
It just seems to me FluBros are math & logic challenged.
And in one side of their head, completely trusting of the CCP numbers, and in the other, completely distrusts CCP (but numbers still good!).
That said, there is a trade off point, but society will set it, not freepers, not even the President of the United States. When we hit it, we will know, because people will “risk it for the biscuit” anyway. And people in the USA are armed to the teeth (and we should be, it’s a God given right, guaranteed by the Constitution — stupid not to be).
Till then, math dominates Flawed FluBro Logic.
He mentioned the onset of Atrial Fibrulation (Afib) when there was no previous history. I wonder what happens to a patient if they already have Afib? I have been told this is the most common heart arrhythmia and can lead to a stroke really fast.
New Jersey nursing home is evacuated after ALL 94 residents are presumed positive for coronavirus and rampant staff illnesses left just three nuns to care for them
Likely albuterol.
CC
Nursing manager at Mount Sinai West hospital in NYC where staff were forced to wear TRASH BAGS as protective equipment dies of coronavirus at age 48
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