Posted on 03/24/2020 6:40:01 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.
If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
So using your logic, what is the current fatality rate (deaths / infections = rate) for the 2019 - 2020 flu season.
Please tell me what it is.
and then blame it all on trump
Nothing else has worked for them. Mueller, Comey, Brennan, Ukraine, strippers, impeachment debacle have all been spectacular failures.
Now they have a clown posse challenging him for the White House and he's sailing to re-election, the the politico-media class is staring at four more years of "Teflon Don".
Do you know how the CDC computes the .1% mortality rate for the flu? They include an estimate of the number of unreported cases of the flu plus the reported cases. Right now the mortality rate of the Wutan virus uses the number of deaths divided by confirmed cases. There is no estimate of unreported or untreated cases of the virus. IMO the mortality rate should be well below the stated 1.3%.
I agree you’re no expert, but neither as you said am I, so try the CDC website. 38,000,000 infections and 23,000 deaths. Do the math.
The actual mortality rate will be significantly under 1%.
President Trump: I think the main factor is the mortality rate. We talked about the mortality rate when we first started, people were thinking about 3 and 4 percent and now they’re talking about a much lower number. I think it is a number that will be a lot different than people thought.
Dr. Birx: The mortality rate is driven almost exclusively by what we have been talking about by people with preexisting conditions and older. So that has become from the very beginning that was our emphasis. When we started two or three weeks ago talking with one another our focus has been how do we protect those with preexisting conditions and the elderly…
President Trump: It’s a lot lower than we originally thought. Frankly, it’s a lot lower.
Dr. Birx: Yes, you know the estimate in Wuhan was originally. It was over three percent. When they (Chinese) looked outside of Wuhan it was 0.7%. In South Korea it was 0.7 to 0.8%. That’s like a tyranny of averages. That’s probably missing 50-60% of the data because no one was testing asymptomatics. Remember in every country you had to be symptomatic to get a test. So we’re making case fatality rates when we’re missing a significant part of the data.
That spreadsheet is very misleading. That is a HUGE rounding error on the death rate. I suggest you fix it.
23,000/38,000,000 = 0.06% nowhere near.1%. Even though the rounding is done correctly.
If Corona happened under a Democrat, NONE of this would be going on. The DNC would be shoving some sh*t down our throat and the Sheep would fall inline. If some die,so they die. It’s just the Flu and government is taking care of it,don’t worry.
I have survived The Population Bomb, Silent Spring, The Next Ice Age, Radon Gas, Black Mold, Peak Oil, Salt, Fat, 1,000s of cancer agents, and so many more I need a drink.
They have a pretty good handle on the kill-rate by testing and figuring out how many of the tested have died. I'm not sure what the thinking problem is for the writers of this piece.
I think part of the .06 rate their coming up with here has as much to do with the WSJ's world crashing down on them as anything else.
When you divide deaths only by people sick enough to get tested, that’s what you get. This whole world has gone insane.
The only test the sick ones. Remember most people have no symptoms. The authors explain this. Define the denominator. The death rate of the sick is much higher than the death rate of all infected people which can only estimate.
Not everyone who is exposed to the virus contracts the virus.
Not everyone who contracts the virus has symptoms.
Not everyone with symptoms get bad sick.
Not every who gets sick dies.
The CDC calculates: Infections (estimated) divided by deaths to get the flu mortality rate. The base their number of infections on sampling and statistical inference.
You are missing something in the denominator. You don’t just include the estimate of 38 million unreported cases. You must add the number of confirmed cases to the estimated number of cases so it is 23,000/38,231,654. which is .06% rounded up to to the nearest tenth of a percent, i.e, .1%. What’s the problem? The CDC rounds up just like it did to get the 1.3% for the Wuhan virus.
It takes. 37 repetitions to really sink in ...
It’s an estimate because it includes known cases and estimated cases. But even adding back like you did isn’t significant.
By stating 0.1% (again that is proper rounding) you nearly double the rate which is 0.06%.
88,000 die each year of alcohol-related incidents ~ we must get rid of alcohol...
There are probably Millions in Italy that were infected. There are 3,000,000 in Milan alone and it ran wild there for weeks.
Italy will be in the best shape of all countries in the world next year, because they will be immune.
Was a total coordinated effort of the Luciferian Left {globally, I believe ), and the Low IQ folks who are easily whipped into a frenzy while watching CNN... not to diminish any real sickness, but the flagrant hysteria was intentional.
yes this was/is definitely being exploited and the fear hyped to incredible levels.
p/H == panic/Hysteria
Stick around, hindsight will be 20/20
For some reason a lot of these psuedo modelers ignore the data showing the percentage of people tested for COVID-19 who exhibit symptoms but are not sick with COVID-19. Those percentages range as high as 94% in South Korea, and are apparently around 90% here overall.
If 90% of the people sick enough to seek a test don't have COVID-19, then the COVID-19 infection rate is lower than that required for the people claiming "everyone already has it". In those samples 90% of the population does not have COVID-19.
If only 10% of the sick people tested have COVID-19, and they are overwhelming hospital facilities, then the rate of serious complications from COVID-19 is not a small number.
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