I agree you’re no expert, but neither as you said am I, so try the CDC website. 38,000,000 infections and 23,000 deaths. Do the math.
Where are you getting 38,000,000 infections? I don’t see that. I see ~420,000 infections and ~9,000 deaths worldwide. That’s 2.14% worldwide.
The CDC says 44,000 infections and 554 deaths but I think that is as of yesterday because the news is reporting ~700 deaths and ~60,000 cases confirmed in the US. Apx 1.2%.
I agree the death rate will drop as we find out more people are asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/