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To: FreedomNotSafety

Where are you getting 38,000,000 infections? I don’t see that. I see ~420,000 infections and ~9,000 deaths worldwide. That’s 2.14% worldwide.

The CDC says 44,000 infections and 554 deaths but I think that is as of yesterday because the news is reporting ~700 deaths and ~60,000 cases confirmed in the US. Apx 1.2%.

I agree the death rate will drop as we find out more people are asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


62 posted on 03/24/2020 8:29:55 PM PDT by monkeyshine (live and let live is dead)
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To: monkeyshine
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.

2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020

The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]

(Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology)

In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.

121 posted on 03/25/2020 12:24:34 PM PDT by Shethink13 (there are 0 electoral votes in the state of denial)
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