Posted on 03/24/2020 10:06:02 AM PDT by sodpoodle
Firstly a national poll doesn’t matter. States elect presidents - not individuals.
Secondly, Fox polls always seem to be among the most consistently skewed against Trump.
Never forget how the MSM tries to swing the vote.
By the same pollsters who said Hillary would win in 2016, by a comfortable margin? Ho-hum.
Monmouth County is one of the little red coastal splotches on the famous by-county electoral map. Strongly Republican overall. Monmouth University, like almost any university, is a bastion of leftism.
Nonsense.
Who ran this poll?
What the cross tabs?
Fox polls have always been back-end-to to us. They mean nothing.
Partisan Media Shills update.
At this rate, the Fake Poll Machine will be out of gas by election time. The lie manufacturers should be more frugal.
I accept your apology......you horses ass.
Biden may be more popular in Michigan than Hillary was.
Was their sampling 100 percent Democrat?
Stand by for these DAILY BULL$HIT avalanches, such as this one!
This looks like another one of those “The Concept of Joe Biden is leading the Concept of Donald Trump among registered voters” polls. Ask likely voters to look at the real thing and the swing will be dramatic.
It’s also BS.
Monmouth U poll: Clinton widening lead over Trump
[Search domain www.app.com/story/news/politics/new-jersey/2016/08/08/2016-election-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-monmouth-university-poll/88399052/] https://www.app.com/story/news/politics/new-jersey/2016/08/08/2016-election-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-monmouth-university-poll/88399052/
WEST LONG BRANCH - Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has opened up a 12-point lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to the most recent Monmouth University national poll.
This is good news, as it means they will KEEP Biden in the race rather than vault another last minute candidate to replace him.
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
GOOD OL FNN The same “right wing” news site
This is trash.
From the actual poll document:
The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from March 18 to 22, 2020 with a national random sample of 851 adults age 18 and older, in English... The results in this poll release are based on a subsample of 754 registered voters.
Demographics:
This poll is a D+5 poll, but most interestingly, it is a D+9 poll of people who live in counties that voted for Clinton by more than 10%.
When looking at the votes for each candidate by counties, we see this:
Candidate | Trump Counties > 10% |
Swing Counties < 10% |
Clinton Counties > 10% |
---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump | 63 | 41 | 30 |
Joe Biden | 32 | 50 | 60 |
It looks like Trump is beating Biden by +3 based on "base" vote, but the Biden "base" is over-sampled by +9, suggesting that Trump's lead is greater.
13. Is your general impression of [candidate] very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable, or do you have no opinion?
Candidate | Trump Counties > 10% |
Swing Counties < 10% |
Clinton Counties > 10% |
---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump | 27 | -10 | -25 |
Joe Biden | -8 | -9 | 22 |
Trump's favorability in his "base" beats Biden's "base" favorability by +5. Then factor in that Biden's base is over-sampled by +9 and the swing favorability is tied, and it looks like Trump is more favored overall.
17. Thinking about your current financial situation, would you say you are struggling to remain where you are financially, basically stable in your current financial situation, or is your financial situation improving?
Candidate | Trump Counties > 10% |
Swing Counties < 10% |
Clinton Counties > 10% |
---|---|---|---|
Improving | 12 | 17 | 9 |
Stable | 64 | 58 | 62 |
Struggling | 23 | 23 | 28 |
Two-thirds of country are reporting that they are financially stable. The Biden "base" is struggling by +5, but again, this is over-sampled by +9.
It would seem that the country overall is feeling okay with the economy (pre-Covid-19).
I think this poll actually show optimism for Trump when looked at through the lens of candidate-base sentiment.
-PJ
The only poll I care about is who is ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If Trump keeps them then Biden could win the popular vote by 3 or 4 or 5 and Trump would still be president
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