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This Is How We Can Beat the Coronavirus
The Atlantic ^ | March 19, 2020 | Aaron E. Carroll & Ashish Jha

Posted on 03/20/2020 1:42:51 PM PDT by yoe

While many watched the coronavirus spread across the globe with disinterest for months, in the last week, most of us have finally realized it will disrupt our way of life. A recent (analysis from Imperial College) is now making some Americans, (including many experts, panic.) The report projects that (2.2 million people) could die in the United States. But the analysis also provides reason for hope—suggesting a path forward to avoid the worst outcomes.

We can make things better; it’s not too late. But we have to be willing to act.

(Polly J. Price: How a fragmented country fights a pandemic)

Let’s start with the bad news. The Imperial College response team’s (report) looked at the impact of measures we might take to flatten the curve, or reduce the rate at which people are becoming sick with COVID-19. If we do nothing and just let the virus run its course, the team predicts, we could see three times as many deaths as we see (from cardiovascular disease) each year. Further, it estimated that infections would peak in mid-June. We could expect to see about 55,000 deaths, in just one day.

(Excerpt) Read more at theatlantic.com ...


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KEYWORDS: aaronecarroll; ashishjha; coronavirus; theatlantic
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To: yoe

21 posted on 03/20/2020 2:23:00 PM PDT by Bon mots
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To: yoe
By the summer, the report calculates, the number of people who become sick will eventually reduce to a trickle.

On this path, though, the real horror show will begin in the fall and crush us next winter, when COVID-19 comes back with a vengeance.

This is what happened with the flu in 1918. The spring was bad. Over the summer, the numbers of sick dwindled and created a false sense of security. Then, all hell broke loose. In late 1918, tens of millions of people died. If a similar pattern holds for COVID-19, then while things are bad now, it may be nothing compared to what we face at the end of the year.

We probably won't have a vaccine for covid-19 by next fall but we will know enough how to deal with another epidemic if it does in fact happen. - Tom

22 posted on 03/20/2020 2:26:31 PM PDT by Capt. Tom
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To: humblegunner

please see http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1111944/posts

theatlantic.com must be excerpted.


23 posted on 03/20/2020 2:27:42 PM PDT by cdcdawg (Cornpop was a pony soldier!)
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To: ifinnegan

Testing should be mandatory for some groups. Teachers for one. Medical staff. Law enforcement. Are a few that come to mind.


24 posted on 03/20/2020 2:32:51 PM PDT by lastchance (Credo.)
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To: lastchance

Uber drivers?


25 posted on 03/20/2020 2:33:58 PM PDT by Monty22002
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To: yoe

im a senior.. a lot has happened in my lifetime.. but this is so odd,.. we could not have written a novel on what we are witnessing.
... the whole world is shutting down.. what are the chances that it could control jobs, eating, going out, stores closed, every thing we knew is closed..
who could have imagined..
..wwii didnt do that.. yes, men died .. germans gunned our soldiers down as they got off boats trying to get ashore..
.. the world went on..
this is unreal today..
if they had hit our power grid.. but no.. a virus..
and we are holed up watching our economy go south..
prayers for the sick..


26 posted on 03/20/2020 2:35:52 PM PDT by frnewsjunkie
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To: Monty22002

If it is to drive illegal aliens back to and maybe even over the border-yes essential.

If it is to buy those darling shoes on sale at Burdines-no.


27 posted on 03/20/2020 2:42:22 PM PDT by lastchance (Credo.)
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To: frnewsjunkie

There have literally been dozens of books about this scenario.


28 posted on 03/20/2020 2:43:32 PM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: Monty22002

Sorry. I am on two threads right now and I got them mixed up.

Should Uber drivers be tested? Yes though I imagine their business is pretty slow right now.

Basically if you are a good candidate for being exposed to or transmitting the virus to many people you should be tested.


29 posted on 03/20/2020 2:48:19 PM PDT by lastchance (Credo.)
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To: lastchance

I actually had to take an Uber drive today and they said the roads and the business is pretty dead. When I got home I was sure to do a long hand wash, was risky for me. Although only 5 I think have tested positive in my county.


30 posted on 03/20/2020 2:56:57 PM PDT by Monty22002
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To: ifinnegan

As illustrated in the other posted articles, it is all about bashing Trump!


31 posted on 03/20/2020 3:02:45 PM PDT by SgtHooper (If you remember the 60's, YOU WEREN'T THERE!)
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To: Monty22002

We have no cases yet. But I know they are coming. Even so life just can’t stop. I find myself washing my hands more often and I pretty much stay home.


32 posted on 03/20/2020 3:02:47 PM PDT by lastchance (Credo.)
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To: yoe

Only reason it’s disrupting my way of life is because the world got stupid and turned itself off.


33 posted on 03/20/2020 3:04:49 PM PDT by discostu (I know that's a bummer baby, but it's got precious little to do with me)
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To: Stirner

Because that’s a movie myth. Out here in reality it just don’t work that way. Not against viruses. Poisons it kinda does, if you process it right. How your body beats a virus isn’t transferable.


34 posted on 03/20/2020 3:07:45 PM PDT by discostu (I know that's a bummer baby, but it's got precious little to do with me)
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To: yoe
The report projects that (2.2 million people) could die in the United States.

Current number is 224, so there's a good ways to go to get to 2,200,000.

35 posted on 03/20/2020 3:22:36 PM PDT by libertylover (Socialism will always look good to those who think they can get something for nothing.)
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To: discostu

Actually, there has been some success using plasma from patients who have recovered. It is not 100% effective, not even close, but it does offer some degree of treatment. I will take whatever we can get, especially if it gets people back to work and school. We cannot have the entire economy shut down for much longer, or we’re going to end up in a great depression with millions of people and businesses going belly up.


36 posted on 03/20/2020 3:25:00 PM PDT by Ancesthntr ("The right to buy weapons is the right to be free." A. E. van Vogt, The Weapons Shops of Isher)
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To: libertylover

I bet you never thought 19 islamics could knock down the WTC, crash another plane, and hit the Pentagon.


37 posted on 03/20/2020 3:29:32 PM PDT by Monty22002
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To: SunkenCiv

Beyer is donating millions of doses as well. But don’t get excited if you hear that victims are responding well. The Democrat media will jump on you and counter with a dreary forecast from the old grouch, Dr. Fauci.


38 posted on 03/20/2020 3:40:50 PM PDT by txrefugee
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To: Monty22002
I bet you never thought 19 islamics could knock down the WTC, crash another plane, and hit the Pentagon.

No I didn't think of it before because my mind doesn't normally think up ways to hurt and kill other people. But afterward 911 I called the FBI and told them how Islamists could do something even worse. The low-level FBI agent I talked to said, "Oh shit" or something similar, but I don't know if any changes have been made in the area of my concern.

39 posted on 03/20/2020 4:02:43 PM PDT by libertylover (Socialism will always look good to those who think they can get something for nothing.)
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To: yoe

In a nutshell, near universal testing, isolation of the most at risk, put whatever resources are necessary to find a vaccine and/or antibodies.

We know what to do, let’s get her done.


40 posted on 03/20/2020 5:05:13 PM PDT by aquila48 (Do not let them make you care!)
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