Posted on 03/18/2020 8:26:33 PM PDT by Teacher317
Just posted this on another thread, and I think that it might deserve its own. It's potentially great news, and most of us are really desperate for that right about now...
Looking at the graphs of New Cases Reported in China, Italy, Iran, South Korea, France, and Spain, they are relatively consistent. Some cases get reported, and then a sudden rise in cases reported lasts for 13-17 days, then they hit a plateau for 3-4 days, then they begin to decline.
China's rise lasted for 25 days, but that's easily explained by the fact that they were first, that they have such a massive population and density (and not the best health care system... I've been in Chinese hospitals before... I literally walked out of one, with an open wound filled with glass from a car accident), and that Chinese New Year involves a HUGE amount of travel within China for almost all Chinese for up to two weeks. Their jump in reported cases didn't begin until JAN 22, when people were already traveling for the holiday.
South Korea's accelerated rise began on FEB 19 (27 new cases, then 53, 98, and 227, etc), and topped out on MAR 3 (at 851... after 13 days of rising... then 400 on MAR 4, then 660, 309, 448, 272, 165 on MAR 9...). Since Mar 10, they've had more completed recoveries reported than new cases reported!!!
Same with Iran... FEB 26 (44, then 106, 143, 205...), peaking on MAR 14 (after 17 days) at 1365, then 1209 and 1053...
Italy, France, and Spain are all right at the 2-week mark after the rise began, so there's not a plateau started yet... but a few more days will tell even more clearly. Italy's last 4 days were 3500, 3600, 3200, and 3500... seems like a plateau to me... hopefully maybe please!!!
Our accelerated rise began after MAR 7-9 (98, 116, 106... then 163, 290, 307, 396). If we follow the path of the other bell curves, where the rise only lasts for 13-17 days, then our plateau should begin this weekend, and the decline should begin next week.
On the other side, we are getting a zillion testing kits put out soon, so we will also likely see a spike in reported numbers, as all of those who have had no symptoms suddenly get added to the pile, so I may get to look like a total loon after all. :/
Call me overly hopeful, berate me for giving false hope, but that's what I see in the data... 2 weeks of acceleration, several days of plateau, and then a decline. Prayers up that I'm close!!
(Also, if you can figure out how to post the bar graphs from that webpage, I'd be grateful... the usual IMG SRC isn't working for me, and I'd appreciate the visual backup to my data!!)
I hope you have flame-proof clothing on - because you’re about to get torched by a certain segment of Freepers. Hang on tight!
The rate of growth that you are seeing in the US are not indication of growth. You are seeing numbers limited by tests. No test..no cases.
In two weeks or so, you will see a real growth rate. Once our testing is in the hundreds of thousands... not the thousands.
Not saying you are right or wrong.
But I think you might be a bit optimistic. Who knows? Not me.
Shhhhhhh. Hold off on the reality until my check gets here.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Washington State shows no new cases today. That really made me feel optimistic.
Again, I'm just trying to share potentially good news, and give some hope out there, because the MSM surely doesn't seem to share very much of it. Some folks are talking about August and beyond for any signs of a light at the end of the tunnel... but maybe it isn't so far away... and simple bell curves from several countries already seem to agree. Our mileage may vary, but I think America is Great, and our bell curve could match that of South Korea and others.
Well we’re up 2500 cases and 35 deaths today. Appears we are just beginning the vertical climb,
By the way son’s friend works at CDC, says expect interstates to be closed soon.
Certainly possible, as I acknowledged... but once the tests are available and done, the bell curve of ACTUAL (not confirmed) cases should follow that of the others. Or so I hope. I shudder to think that Iran and Spain are going to handle this better than we can.
Almost 500 Italians died TODAY. One day. I hope you’re right, but I’m not seeing it. I’ve said the same about this whole thing for the past 2 months: I hope I am able to say “I overreacted” instead of “I told you so.”
Nope. We are just starting the climb.
VP Pence and Dr. Birx had a lot to say about this at today’s briefing. Potentially great news.
Hold on to your hat.
We’ll see.
But as the other guy said...can we wait till we get our checks?
Link?
By the way son’s friend works at CDC, says expect interstates to be closed soon.
—
That is an absurd rumor. Back it up.
It hasn’t even started yet.
Where is Wyo.?
They seem to have a buncha new cases in Casper.
“says expect interstates to be closed soon”
Oh ya? Wait till they pull that crap and see what happens.
Today they claimed that the state is considering closing all places that serve perishable foods-that includes truck stops.
Where the hell they think these truckers are gonna go to get showers and use the toilet..not to mention get food?
You will see more **** spread along the major highways than in San Fran.
How would they like that?
Either your friend is full of crap, or CDC is losing their minds.
If the highways are closed, how is food going to get moved? How is supplies going to be delivered to hospitals.
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