Posted on 03/18/2020 7:55:07 PM PDT by david1292
Rome (CNN)Italy is entering its fourth week of the worst national crisis since World War II with no end in sight.
More than 60 million people are living under an increasingly unbearable lockdown that is growing tighter by the day. The stores that remain open are shuttering earlier and police are patrolling in ever-greater numbers, chasing families out for walks back into their homes and ensuring no one is outside without a valid reason.
Even so, the number of novel coronavirus cases in the country is rising at a rate of around 3,500 new cases or more every day, and the death toll has topped 2,500. The highest concentration of cases is in the north of the country, where the dead are being stacked up to be buried as funeral services are strictly prohibited. But the living are stacked up too, with coronavirus patients being treated in field hospitals and lined up in corridors inside the bursting public hospitals. Doctors and nurses are being infected, due to a lack of adequate protection.
--
The lockdown has stretched the very fabric of Italian society. The people are anxious and the economy is in tatters. Easter, which traditionally kicks off the tourist season across the country, has all but been cancelled, costing small and medium size businesses their livelihoods. Many have already said they will never reopen. As people default on their loans, both personal and business, the banks will likely need help, and the domino effect of this historical crisis will last long after Italy stops tallying new cases.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Quarantines will not work on this type of scale with such an easily-spreading virus in a free society. You are not going to be able to enforce quarantines on entire nations and entire continents for the period of months and months and months. It's not going to work. People will defy it. Businesses will go bankrupt. And supply chains will fracture. And in the meantime, the virus will still spread anyway.
Now some may say it worked in China. We got a LOT of people praising a totalitarian country, which is scarier than the virus. But this is not China. We are not a totalitarian country. So trying to copy them is not going to work. 200,000 people in Italy have been cited breaking the restrictions. In the US, that number will be in the millions.
Better figure something out. In 1-2 months we will have an economy in shambles, and a virus that is still spreading. And we'll probably have to do this again next winter. This virus may be with us forever.
The goal here is to slow it down to find effective treatment and get the medical equipment.
They are finding things that are working...and not working.
Like dont take ibuprofen.
The horse was already out of the barn when they closed the door. Too late.
Not working so far, CNN gleefully reported.
One aspect that I haven’t seen a lot of discussion about is the fact a lot of Italians live in large apartment buildings. You can do all the quarantining that you want, but if there is a common ventilation system as well as elevator sharing, etc., people living in close quarters will infect each other.
“The highest concentration of cases is in the north of the country, where the dead are being stacked up to be buried as funeral services are strictly prohibited. “
That sure sounds familiar. Italians now understand that they should have taken this virus seriously, instead they laughed at it and partied - and now they pay. And not just Italians, also the rest of Western Europe, and now the US (Spring Break must prevail!).
Buckle-in for a really rough ride coming up. To use a roller coaster analogy - we’re just now leaving the loading area.
The media may delight that this would hurt Trump, but at some point, they would have to realize that this way of life isn’t what they wanted either. No restaurants or businesses open, no movies, plays, sports, no people out in public. Millions of people out of work. All because of their hatred for one man??
That would be insanity. Yes, I know they’re insane, but even the dystopian world that would be the result seems beyond what they’d want in their cushy lives.
Imagine that — a virus that isn’t intimidated by jazz hands and raised eyebrows!
The death rate from the coronavirus is looking quite normal for a flu, after all. We were told the death rate would be 10%. Turns out that outside Wuhan, the death rate in China is about 1%.... similar to what we’re seeing in the U.S. outside Washington (0.7%), Korea (0.6) and most of Europe.
I don’t actually know why the death rate in Italy is so damned high.
Anyway, the point is that they say the death rate for the flu is 0.1%, so this is 10 times worse than the flu.
Is it? According to the CDC, there were 16 million people who were diagnosed with the flu in 2018-2019.., and 34,000 deaths. But if you tally those whose perhaps otherwise imminent deaths were triggered by the flu, as they do with the coronavirus, you’re actually looking at 80,000. That’s 0.5%.
So why do they say 0.1%? Because they presume 36 million people had the flu, and they count only 34,000 deaths as caused by the flu and not some other simultaneous yet sufficient factor.
So some epidemiologists say that they’re only identifying 15% of those who have contracted coronavirus, with vast populations asymptomatic. If so, there aren’t 7,000 people with the coronavirus, there’s more like 50,000. That puts the death rate (80 outside of Washington) at 0,16%... less than 1/3 of the 2018-2019 flu.
Italy has 1/3 the number of ICU beds per capita than the US.
Italy told doctors to let 80+ year olds die, Ive heard, and 65+ is triaged after everyone younger.
This means their problems are not ours.
“This means their problems are not ours.”
They also speak a different language.
The death rate from the coronavirus is looking quite normal for a flu, after all. We were told the death rate would be 10%. Turns out that outside Wuhan, the death rate in China is about 1%.... similar to what we’re seeing in the U.S. outside Washington (0.7%), Korea (0.6) and most of Europe.
I don’t actually know why the death rate in Italy is so damned high.
Anyway, the point is that they say the death rate for the flu is 0.1%, so this is 10 times worse than the flu.
TO BE CLEAR:
I am presenting the optimistic possibility, to counter a pessimistic one. We could easily be looking at a few hundred thousand premature deaths.
Is it? According to the CDC, there were 16 million people who were diagnosed with the flu in 2018-2019.., and 34,000 deaths. But if you tally those whose perhaps otherwise imminent deaths were triggered by the flu, as they do with the coronavirus, you’re actually looking at 80,000. That’s 0.5%.
So why do they say 0.1%? Because they presume 36 million people had the flu, and they count only 34,000 deaths as caused by the flu and not some other simultaneous yet sufficient factor.
So some epidemiologists say that they’re only identifying 15% of those who have contracted coronavirus, with vast populations asymptomatic. If so, there aren’t 7,000 people with the coronavirus, there’s more like 50,000. That puts the death rate (80 outside of Washington) at 0,16%... less than 1/3 of the 2018-2019 flu.
Meanwhile, the economy is destroyed.
And like I said, we’ll have to do this again next winter because this will never go away. The flu kills tens of thousands of Americans every years....and we have a vaccine for that!
So is these shutdowns what will be doing every year?
Several treatments seem promising, and a few are drugs we already use for other purposes. We will not stop the spread of this. But we can mitigate the effects.
CC






“I dont actually know why the death rate in Italy is so damned high.”
Italy has the second oldest population in the world after Japan. And let’s face it, the Japanese aren’t hugging and kissing each other every five minutes.
I couldnt visualize a more congested way of habitation.
Yes, Milan is very much like that particularly on the outskirts. The old town has mostly low-rise buildings, but as you get further away from the city center it’s a lot of the sort of apartment blocks that you describe.
I would like to see when he went all-in on shorting the markets.
Could be. He’s brand new.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.