Top forecaster who exited stocks weeks ago predicts ‘rolling bear markets’ until 2022

Marketwatch ^ | March 17, 2020 | Barbara Kollmeyer

[lasereye]

Our call of the day comes from a forecaster who escaped this bear market by exiting 90% of stocks before the virus started to grip the world, after he warned months prior of too much optimism for equities. Yves Lamoureux, the president of macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co. who correctly predicted a panic event of 2018, now sees a series of rolling bear markets ahead.

He started talking about what he calls a Global Financial Crisis 2.0 as early as late October 2019, then began selling stocks in December, leaving him with just a “few good ideas,” by late January.

“I think after 10 years of being on steroids, I’d say this market is very fragile. I was looking for something to turn the bull market out. The virus was the needle that pricked the bubble,” says Lamoureux.

He believes markets may be reaching the end of the current selloff — though it will expose overindebted companies and consumers — and that should open up opportunities to selectively pick companies. But it isn’t over.

“We’ll have another [selloff] next year and another in 2022, so I’m expecting three big waves down. They’re going to be followed by big bounces and those things should be driven by waves of the infection,” he says. Lamoureux, who says he studied microbiology at Concordia University, thinks the virus could come back more aggressively a couple more times, hitting stocks again and again.

[9YearLurker]

The market was overpriced and there was too much money chasing future profits.

Correction in order regardless of any coronavirus. Now we have significantly reduced economic activity for the first two quarters of 2020. Perfect timing supposedly to take down a sitting president who had built a great record of peace and prosperity.

But I don’t think that flies here. I think more than enough Americans are saying, “Hey, Trump was right about China and domestic production all along!” I think he will sustain backing in the polls despite all this. So the next move will be the Dems trying to use this to muck up the election in November. They always steal a victory when they manage to muck up an election. So we’ll have to stop that. Somehow.

[Leaning Right]

> You put it much better than I did. <

I have to be honest. That’s only because I have a word-smith assisting me.

[From The Deer Stand]

Lots of “experts” out there.

[RiderOfTheBlue]

I’ve read FR daily for 20 years without registering, but I finally signed up just for the privilege of telling you how hard your comment made me laugh. Cheers...

[chris37]

Thank you kindly <3