Posted on 03/17/2020 6:42:23 AM PDT by lasereye
Our call of the day comes from a forecaster who escaped this bear market by exiting 90% of stocks before the virus started to grip the world, after he warned months prior of too much optimism for equities. Yves Lamoureux, the president of macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co. who correctly predicted a panic event of 2018, now sees a series of rolling bear markets ahead.
He started talking about what he calls a Global Financial Crisis 2.0 as early as late October 2019, then began selling stocks in December, leaving him with just a “few good ideas,” by late January.
“I think after 10 years of being on steroids, I’d say this market is very fragile. I was looking for something to turn the bull market out. The virus was the needle that pricked the bubble,” says Lamoureux.
He believes markets may be reaching the end of the current selloff — though it will expose overindebted companies and consumers — and that should open up opportunities to selectively pick companies. But it isn’t over.
“We’ll have another [selloff] next year and another in 2022, so I’m expecting three big waves down. They’re going to be followed by big bounces and those things should be driven by waves of the infection,” he says. Lamoureux, who says he studied microbiology at Concordia University, thinks the virus could come back more aggressively a couple more times, hitting stocks again and again.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
Just seems strange. He forecasts it to return twice. Why not three times? Why not four? What does he know that others don’t?
“Why will it stop in 2022?”
I believe that is when the virus will be completely gone and companies would have gotten their footing.
The reason the market started the downward trend in the beginning was the fact we have a supply chain failure. This needs to be address. I would like to see our big corporation diversify with there factory locations.
I wonder if the downward trend Monday is pure panic of the shut down. Looks like we might be steadying out this week. We might be done dropping.
My investments since Jan 1 is still at 1.9% profit, not bad for market crash. I saw the storm coming and adjusted for it.
Let it roll up and down, there is this thing called dollar cost averaging.
This might be a once in a life time opportunity to invest. I will be shopping for Value Stocks with a history. Just buy and hold for the future dividends and growth. I will leave my 401K pre-virus balance in low risk then invest new 401K deposits into high risk.
” about some “genius” who got out before the crash.”
I am no genius, I just did not believe it was a flu. I did get out in time for the 2008. The others I lost my shirt.. This time, I got lucky and follow a gut feeling.. No numbers to justify pulling out. Pull out about a three days before the crash.
I only pull out 85% of my investments.
The ONE person out of 100,000 experts who gets out of a market before a drop is now the “expert”, seen it as many times as we’ve experienced a market drop.
“Shipping And Factories Are Near Back To Normal.”
I think it will take three weeks to see the shipping come back to normal. That is where companies start receiving their supplies in hand again to start producing.
I wonder if there is a delay for restart of American factories waiting supplies. The virus arriving here could add to that restart time.
Lol, We have a lot of experts out there... I call it pure luck.
You don’t lose unless you sell. I find it hard to believe that in the next ten years we won’t see the mother of all booms, as people make up for lost time.
Just as a general comment, whenever anyone is referred to as a “Top” something or other, they usually aren’t.
Speaking of good news, I heard on CBS News this morning that there is one new case of the virus in Wuhan. One.
So if that’s true, it’s very good news.
I look at guys like him with great skepticism. Hundreds of financial “experts” are always predicting all sorts of things. The market will explode upward next month, or the market will tank next month, or invest in potato futures now!
In that sea of predictions, one of them is bound to hit it right, Then he’s a genius...until his next three predictions all fall flat.
> The fact that someone made a good call before is absolutely no guarantee that his future calls will be right. This is a worthless prediction. <
Agreed. I said as much in my post #33.
Actually the numbers were there. Valuations were getting pretty lofty. Seeking Alpha: Coronavirus Roundtable: Diagnosing The Market Situation
Becuase of the extended bull market and my age I had our assets positioned defensively to limit the damage in a downturn. But even then, the sell off has taken a heavy toll. That said, I will be nibbling my way back in when valuations are more attractive. I pay a lot of attention to value.
The price you pay is the single biggest determinant of what your gains will be. To paraphrase Buffett rule #1 is buy low. Rule #2 is never forget rule #1. Rule #3 is buy quality. :)
“You don’t lose unless you sell.”
That is true. But selling before a big drops lets you get back in with a lot of money without lost on paper. We will see mother of all booms if Trump is reelected.
Really I miss that. So I did get lucky to pull when I did.
“Why will it stop in 2022?”
Eventually, enough people will have already been exposed, that they have developed their own immunity.
Essentially, that is how long it would take to work its way through the whole herd, even if we slow it down with quarantines and social distancing.
If an effective vaccine is distributed, that would cut it shorter.
Also, if effective treatments were available, the disease could be allowed to spread unchecked, and get it over with quicker.
The big problem with just letting it run unchecked now, is that Intensive Care Units would be swamped more than ten times capacity, and more people would die as a result.
Your post # 33 is exactly spot on. You put it much better than I did.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.