Posted on 03/12/2020 12:19:06 AM PDT by House Atreides
For many countries staring down fast-rising coronavirus case counts, the race is on to “flatten the curve.”
The United States and other countries, experts say, are likely to be hit by tsunamis of Covid-19 cases in the coming weeks without aggressive public health responses. But by taking certain steps — canceling large public gatherings, for instance, and encouraging some people to restrict their contact with others — governments have a shot at stamping out new chains of transmission, while also trying to mitigate the damage of the spread that isn’t under control.
The epidemic curve, a statistical chart used to visualize when and at what speed new cases are reported, could be flattened, rather than being allowed to rise exponentially.
“If you look at the curves of outbreaks, they go big peaks, and then come down. What we need to do is flatten that down,” Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters Tuesday. “That would have less people infected. That would ultimately have less deaths. You do that by trying to interfere with the natural flow of the outbreak.”
(Excerpt) Read more at statnews.com ...
PS - I’m in the Non-panicked but desirous of strong mitigation and containment (slowing the speed & extent of the spread) efforts crowd. I recommend reading the linked article.
It is clearly a bad bug. It is not clear what the actual source is yet. Nothing said by the ChiCom government is to be believed.
My grandson and daughter live on the East Coast. There are 2 confirmed cases in the county they live in. A classmate of my grandson is “under quarantine” for possible exposure.
Yes. I am concerned.
But I believe NOTHING from the NYT or the Washington ComPost propaganda machine. The worst outbreaks in the US are in Washington State and NYC. Both ComDem controlled leftist bastions.
The Never Trumper’s and the ComDem Bureaucraps who plotted the coup of the POTUS are trying to do anything to falsely blame this on Trump. The Media always LIES. (24/7)
Thank you for posting this.
I know the FReeper Ostrich Club likes to heckle, insult, and scream about taking common sense measures (like social distancing, encouraged by postponing mass gatherings) to slow the spread of the Wuhan Flu. But I think this is the best bet for the USA to ride out this particular storm while keeping our healthcare system and economy from collapsing.
When you go outside in a lot of countries there is something you can catch from a flying insect we are all familiar with called a mosquito... Malaria causes over three hundred million illnesses and kills at more than one million people every year.
You can also catch a lot of things from people... The regular flu, a cold, pneumonia, measles, meningitis, AIDS, crabs, syphilis, etc., etc.
I say screw the restrictions and face the facts... Your chances of death from this virus are minimal in comparison to some of the above disease. Do you currently stay home because you have an infinitesimal chance of catching one of the above afflictions?
If the answer is no, then why should you stay home because of this virus? We are a social society and socializing is what keeps most of us sane... Staying home and brooding typically drives people towards insanity, as does hysteria. So lets stop this hysterical nonsense and continue on with our lives.
Oh... And by the way. Donald Trump did not create the corona virus. I’m pretty sure that by now most Americans think that he did... He didn’t.
The more we can slow this down, the longer we have to bolster our ICU capacity.
The harder this thing hits, the more HUGE the investment opportunities are gonna be at the end.
This thing doesn’t kill in NEARLY high enough numbers to be like a plague event but it will keep scaring the spit off of everyone and even if 2 or 3 percent die, the economy will roar back when it’s gone.
And you’ll be able to get stocks at 2015 prices maybe.
In the less likely that our current ICU capacity is overwhelmed by everyone showing up at the same time.
One, it’s more contagious.
Two, it’s more deadly.
Three, in Italy people are not limiting their social interaction.
So, the health system in Italy is overwhelmed by the number of infected patients with serious conditions who need hospitalization. They all cannot get it, so the death rate is higher in Italy, as, again, many patients are not getting the level of treatment that they need to survive.
By limiting social interaction, the rate of disease spread will slow, and be less likely to overwhelm the existing ICU system. This will result in a lower death rate.
COVID-19 Update As of 03/11/2020 23:13 PST
These numbers include Mainland China and All Others globally
The good news this morning is that yesterday 03/11/20 mid afternoon PDT, Taiwan began reporting it's
own numbers again. Hong Kong and Macau's numbers are now reported with Mainland China's numbers.
I had trust in Hong Kong and Macau's numbers. Now, not so much.
Global Trends.
Declared Cases
. Declared Deceased
. . Declared Recovered
. . . Declared Resolved
Date . . . . Cases Remining Active
-----------------------------------------------------------------
03/03: 93,160 3,198 50,690 53,888 39,272
03/04: 95,425 3,286 53,399 56,685 38,740
03/05: 98,387 3,383 55,441 58,824 39,563
03/06: 102,188 3,491 57,389 60,880 41,308
03/07: 106,165 3,977 59,965 63,559 42,606
03/08: 110,041 3,825 62,000 65,825 44,216
03/09: 114,452 4,026 64,169 68,195 46,257
03/10: 119,132 4,284 65,776 70,060 49,072
03/11: 126,258 4,638 68,284 72,922 53,336
Daily Global GrowthNumbers for the last nine days:
03/03: 2,223 03/04: 2,265 03/05: 2,962 03/06: 3,801 03/07: 3,977 03/08: 3,876 03/09: 4,411 03/10: 4,680 03/11: 7,126Lets face it, the numbers of new reported cases is overwhelming at the moment.
Today, the John's Hopkins University site reported out half the recovered numbers
by noon, and more by late afternoon PDT. It was reasoned, and for the first time
in ten days, appropriate.
The last column there shows the numbers of active cases. You will note how
they were dropping, then started increasing again. Here are the last nine days
drop & then growth numbers.
03/03: -494 03/04: -532 03/05: 823 03/06: 1,745 03/07: 1,298 03/08: 1,610 03/09: 2,041 03/10: 2,815 03/11: 4,264Observations:
As you can tell, the active cases are heating up. With this type of daily
growth, we will top the old peak of 58,809 active cases within thirty-six
hours. The previous peak was reached on 02/17/20, so we had 23 days to
enjoy lower numbers. Later today on the 12th, or possible in the early
morning hours of the 13th, we will be in uncharted terriotry again.
The mortality rate that went as low as 5.65% on the 7th, has now
grown back up to 6.36%. The majority of new cases are coming from outside
China. Again, in a few days, we should see the lag upswing in recovered
patients growing considerably. When that happens, it will take some of the
pressure off the growth in activecases, and the up-ticks in the mortality rate.
There was an uptick in resolved cases today. I hope we are beginning to see
ripe cases bearing recovery fruit. It will take a day or two to see if these
elevated numbers remain, or if that was a single day fluke.
COVID-19 cases outside China now make up 72.10% of global active cases.
The growth rate of active cases today was 5,608 active cases.
The numbers and percentages of resolved cases has continued to hold up pretty
well. On 03/07 at 18:03 PST the percentage peaked at 59.918% of all documented
cases having been resolved. As of the EOD 03/11, that percentage had slid to
57.756%. With these massive 'out of control' reports of new cases popping up,
it's a wonder we're still talking about over 55% of all declared cases having
been resolved.
These numbers address the cases outside of Mainland China.
Outside Mainland China Trends
Declared Cases
. Declared Deceased
. . Declared Recovered
. . . Declared Resolved
Date . . . . Cases Remaining Active
-----------------------------------------------------------------
03/03 12,890 217 837 1,054 11,836
03/04 15,015 279 1,222 1,501 13,514
03/05 17,832 341 1,685 2,026 15,806
03/06 21,537 421 1,986 2,407 19,130
03/07 25,470 497 2,871 3,368 22,102
03/08 29,285 706 3,389 4,095 25,190
03/09 33,696 890 4,258 5,148 28,548
03/10 38,176 1,122 4,206 5,328 32,848
03/11 45,326 1,466 5,404 6,870 38,456
You'll see a dip in the declared recovered numbers on the 10th. I believe thatDaily Outsdie Mainland China Growth
Numbers for the last nine days:
03/03: 2,223 03/04: 2,265 03/05: 2,962 03/06: 3,801 03/07: 3,977 03/08: 3,876 03/09: 4,411 03/10: 4,480 03/11: 7,150The last column there shows the numbers of active cases. Here are the last nine
03/03: 2,015 03/04: 1,678 03/05: 2,292 03/06: 3,324 03/07: 2,972 03/08: 3,088 03/09: 3,358 03/10: 4,300 03/11: 5,608The United States saw growth of 26.52% of new cases on 03/11. I would like to see
The Process
JHU says there are about 116 nations reporting right now. I'm tracking eight other
entities that have dropped off their reports. I'm not sure why this happens, but I
don't want to have the numbers I've captured, deleted. They'll remain in my database.
There have been various head-aches with JHU data reporting recently.
1. JHU was reporting out New Cases and Deaths early, then waiting ten hours to post
recovery numbers. That changed today, after ten days. A large number of recovery
numbers were released before noon PDT, and then again before 18:00. Much better.
2. JHU seems to have more than one person entering data. A nation will be entered
as follows. South Korea. An new tech comes in and sees numbers for the Republic
of South Korea and enters them under that name. Sometimes they have two listings for
one nation. Other times they'll delect the old name listing, enter the data under the
new name. The next day the other person comes in and balks at the change, and changes
it back. What a major pin. I'm deleting and adding in new entities constantly.
3. Today they cleaned up their files and deleted about five entities. I've been keeping
records for those entities for a few days or for up to a week or more. All of a sudden
the entity isn't on the list. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
I have manipulate the data to post rigth under where I need to update. As I go along,
the data lines up. All of a sudden it doesn't. Entities are added, they disappear, or
they are relocated. I've come up with a pretty decent way to deal with this. Before I
had done so, it took me over an hour to process one update that generally takes just ten
minutes or so.
4. Then there is the issue of the three main numbers they post. Total Cases, Deaths, and
Recoveries. Lets say they update at 23:23. (Side note: They almost always post the
new report on the threes. That doesn't always happen, but you can look at the spread
sheet and see it happens what seems like 90% plus of the time.) JHU will put up a new
report. A few minutes after that report, they start updating the main numbers.
The problem is, I downlod the death numbers list. I download the recovery numbers list.
I also download the list of nations and their declared cases.
If I don't catch it just right, they update things before I've completed capturing the
data. And it only takes me a minute or two to do that.
As of today I am beginning to update from the lists. Nations, deaths, and recoveries.
In this manner, I can match up the data. I have to do that so that I can make sure I've
entered my data accurately. I use check sums, and have the computer add sums so that I
can check them manually.
When JHU, changes things, it causes my proces to go squirrely. And I have enough issues
with that on my own. LOL
Hot Spots
Let's look at how those numbers have changed over the last nine days.
South
Italy Iran Korea France Spain Germany U.S.A.
03/03:
03/04: 3,089 2,322 5,756 285 222 262 159
03/05: 3,858 3,513 6,294 423 282 545 233
03/06: 4,636 4,747 6,767 653 401 670 338
03/07: 5,883 5,823 7,134 949 525 800 433
03/08: 7,375 6,566 7,382 1,209 673 1,040 554
03/09: 9,172 7,161 7,513 1,412 1,231 1,224 754
03/10: 10,149 8,042 7,755 1,784 1,695 1,565 1,037
03/11: 12.462 9,000 7,869 2,284 2,277 1,966 1,312
These seven nations/entities account for 82% of the global numbers outside China. Here's the amount and percentage for each, and the accumulative total
percent of all Outside Mainland China cases they account for.
12,462 27.49% Italy
9,000 19.86% Iran
7,869 17.36% South Korea
2,284 05.04% France
2,277 05.02% Spain
1,966 04.34% Germany
1,312 02.89% the USA
-------------
82.00% of all cases outside of China...
This explains how many people there are to one case in these entities:Globally : 145,680 Mainland China: 93,145 Outside China : 202,049 The U. S. A. : 261,599Good night...
All data below sourced from Johns Hopkins University: LINK
I have been downloading three to five reports per day since 01/27. I have then
worked up numbers that should give a very good representation of numbers that
have been provided to the public via that site.
In my spreadsheet linked below, you'll find global numbers including China. You
will find a separate section addressing just the Outside China figures. Then
there is now also a section with just the United States stats in there. There
are also a lot of special stats broken out for you to browse. The history of
115 nations and their numbers from day one of their reporting.
You're welcome to it.
COVID-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data
I now have an XLS file again, but it is for viewing only. I had to do a wrap-
around to get it to fit in the XLS file format. On the top right you will see
nations 1-70 listed. I cut and pasted nations 71-115 under them. You'll
see what I mean.
.
Nice post. Viral pneumo is pretty serious. But, not a reason to panic. So why is America panicking... they do what their media tells them. Count the dead and hie.
Why not count the survivors and dance. They are in the majority.
O wait.. it’s an election year.. create the usual crisis and crank up the media war machine.
Even here, on FR.. rational people see only what they are told. I miss the old days of FR when we did not allow this panic to spread here.
Why? Because we know while they are creating a crisis, they are doing something far more dangerous. Crashing an economy.
And we are happy to help, by submitting to the media.
There was a dramatic Q and A by Germany’s Merkel yesterday. For past six weeks, she’s avoided any real talk...just a two-liner here and there.
So she sat in the morning Q and A, and made three key observations:
1. No vaccine. No therapy. No wonder drugs.
2. Present home-quarantine and testing has worked worked (so far only 2 deaths).
3. The preoccupation with people should settle on 70-percent of the public getting this virus by the end of 2020, and to use good hygiene habits to limit the weekly infection rate (especially for the 15-percent group who have a rough challenge ahead).
She is correct, the hospitals don’t have adequate beds or manpower to handle 50,000 people a week coming down with this, and 7,500 of them going weekly into hospitals because of serious issues. The vaccine will eventually come, but it’s likely to be early 2021.
That’s the harsh reality to this, and people just need to have the goal of compulsive hygiene habits, limiting travels, and self-quarantine when necessary.
Heh .. “exponentially,” not a well understood math.
The flat curve is exponential too! The difference? Smaller exponent. Reduce R0 via modifying the rate and type of interpersonal contact.
Thanks for posting.
Yes! That's exactly how we need to be focused. Slowing it down is something we can do. Stay home. Shutter schools. Work from home if possible. Etc.
Humans generally try to balance risk and "utility," in this case the value of going about your business as usual. It is very unlikely that balance will be struck "just right" with a novel (new) risk. See the evolution in automobile technology over the years. Dual master brake cylinders didn't become common until the 1960's. Similar with aircraft, etc.
Same case with disease. We'll either over-react or under-react at first. Odds of getting it "just right" on the first shot are infinitesimal.
Add the ability of the press to gin up hysteria (year of the shark), politics, and other factors ....
Andromeda Strain. The Stand.
I’m not saying your post isn’t useful, but do you really have to spam every corona thread with the same gigantic post?
It’s a pain to constantly have to scroll past it, especially on a phone.
Maybe you should start a corona statistics thread of its own and post links to it in appropriate places instead.
+1
This is an excellent point.
Much of the fear of COVID-19 is due to being infected by going about one's daily routines, and that a certain percentage of people will develop severe cases requiring intensive measures to treat
Perusing the Wiki page for malaria, it's a nasty disease and death in severe can occur in days/hours.
There are now effective treatments and also some preventive medications for malaria.
The same will occur for COVID-19. But it will take time and many people will need to change their daily habits over the short and mid-term.
Fear and normalcy bias are both powerful responses to COVID-19. There is a way through COVID-19. But it will take time.
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