Posted on 03/07/2020 11:29:14 AM PST by Leaning Right
The U.S. government has collected persuasive intelligence that the Taliban do not intend to honor the promises they have made in the recently signed deal with the United States, three American officials tell NBC News, undercutting what has been days of hopeful talk by President Donald Trump and his top aides.
"They have no intention of abiding by their agreement," said one official briefed on the intelligence, which two others described as explicit evidence shedding light on the Taliban's intentions.
Trump himself acknowledged that reality in extraordinary comments Friday, saying the Taliban could "possibly" overrun the Afghan government after U.S. troops withdraw.
(Excerpt) Read more at nbcnews.com ...
I don’t believe anything out of NBC media.
Fast forward to today. Replace “Nazis” with “Islamists” in the above paragraph.
In addition to that, us Infidels have a two part problem in dealing with Muslims.
1. We do not understand the fundamentals of ISLAM, which is to subjugate , convert or kill anyone on this earth who is not a Muslim.
2. Us Infidels are influenced by a Judeo/ Christian belief in life and people.
Our beliefs makes us tolerant , forgiving and loving and makes understanding fundamental Islam difficult because our naïve girly boy attitudes be nice attitudes, handcuff us in dealing with fundamental Muslims. -Tom
We have 9/11. FDR had Pearl Harbor. Say what you want about FDR. But with the help of the allies, he beat both the Germans and the Japanese in 3 1/2 years.
There is a saying: Democracies should go to war reluctantly, and fiercely. FDR understood that. George W. Bush did not.
Oh, and one more thing. After 9/11 Bush could have activated the NATO common defense clause. That would have brought all of NATO on our side. True, the rest of NATO is not very strong militarily. But it would have sent a powerful message.
Bush declined. How stupid was that?
Not only that but i don’t trust them not to try to set up Trump and pull him into a war.
Something too many people forget.
Let me think on this a tad. Did we not use something called Agent Orange in Vietnam. Why yes we did. Has not someone thought of wiping out that crop by now. I am sure they did. So, what the hell is stopping them.
Yes, it will be a Vietnam redux - they lose on the ground, we lose politically - American people are tired of the war and the President, like Nixon, just wants a way out - consequences in Afghanistan be damned.
Arm the govt to the teeth, and have THEM liquidate everyone that has no alliegence to the country.
In 2001 when the Taliban killed anyone growing poppies, the value of their warehouses opium increased 4x.
This will turn into a hell hole.
Ending like our withdrawal from Viet Nam with helicopters on the embassy roof will be like a walk in the park compared to what happened in the Khyber Pass in 1842.
Have to do live training somewhere anyway.
> Arm the govt to the teeth... <
I fear those arms would just end up in Taliban hands.
Consider a soldier who is in the current Afghan army. He’d have to know which way the wind was blowing. He’d have to know that once the Americans leave, the current puppet government will collapse.
That soldier should probably desert the first chance he got. Because if he waits too long, he’ll probably be killed in the collaborator bloodbath that is sure to follow the Taliban victory.
Thanks for nothing, George W. Bush.
Ending like our withdrawal from Viet Nam with helicopters on the embassy roof will be like a walk in the park compared to what happened in the Khyber Pass in 1842.
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Oh yeah, I can see the RPG’s slamming choppers. No where to run. The Afghani “allies” will drop their weapons and run and get mowed down and then the real hell will begin. If Afghanistan was a plant it would be a Venus Flytrap.
There is only one way to win, but we wont do it. BAN ISLAM. BAN THE KORAN.
Ideally, the Afghans should wake up one morning and find all of the Americans gone—kind of like the rapture.
Here’s the agreement:
..............
https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf
“Arm the govt to the teeth, and have THEM liquidate everyone that has no alliegence to the country”
That is the old CIA solution - install a dictator with a big mustache, and let him run roughshod over his political opponents, to control the place, and protect America’s few key interests (anti-communism, anti-terrorism, etc.).
It is a cheaper way to achieve a few American interests, than trying to support and re-build a whole society (Nation building).
Afghanistan is not a profit center for the USA, it is an unproductive expense. We need to re-structure to reduce costs. We should not go on paying their whole Defense budget forever - time to sink or swim.
A big consideration in Afghanistan is the role of Pakistan in supporting the Taliban. Even though the Taliban are ethnically Afghan Pashtun tribesmen, they came to power in Afghanistan as virtual surrogates of the Pakistani Intelligence Services (ISIS) and Military. Pakistan still hosts and supports them in safe havens along the Afghan border. Ultimately, effective leverage has to be put on Pakistan, to achieve a successful outcome.
Oops, typo:
Pakistani Intelligence Services (ISIS)
should be Pakistani Intelligence Services (ISI), for Inter-Services Intelligence.
Quite separate from the ISIS surrogates of Erdogan’s Turkey.
“Consider a soldier who is in the current Afghan army... That soldier should probably desert the first chance he got.”
Afghans are really outstanding by Global norms - not fearful people, among the most unlikely to break and run out of fear. Truly exceptional. They really earned my respect and affection for their courage, when I served there
What is likely in my opinion, is that Afghan soldiers would revert to their Ethnic/Sectarian/Patronage Militias if the Central Government fell. Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazara would band back together to defend themselves from the Pashtun Taliban. They would seek foreign sponsors for military support - Russia, China, Iran, the USA, and Pakistan are the big players. Maybe India would want to block Pakistan, but that would be a big escalation for them.
Basically, the civil war would be back on again, and the country at risk of falling back into another “Mad Max” period of warring gangs and Militias, until someone manages to shoot their way to domination (likely with major foreign military support).
They have some significant mineral wealth in the ground, if any regime could establish reliable security.
Like the NVA
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