Posted on 03/06/2020 10:19:16 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom
Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate.
We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.
We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.
As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.
What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted.
The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc).
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thank you for posting this
You simply cannot spend the money to build the capacity of everything needed for a black swan. It would sit there unused for decades until it was all obsolete or expired and discarded.
The Brits, though, apparently have 1/7 of the per capita ICU beds we do. They decided to be far less ready than we are.
She points that out. Once a significant fraction of the population gets it, the growth rate slows and eventually stops. Of course, behavior afterwards depends on how the body generates antibodies and if future mutations are handled by those antibodies.
“Many” is a bit vague, dont you think? maybe you should come up with some numbers of your own if you dont agree with these
It’s just a hoax flu that only affects old people and is a conspiracy against Trump.
/demented FReepers.
Relax..... it ain’t gonna happen. Speculative extrapolation is fallacious
A disease has morphed into a political crisis that has kill Trump as it’s primary basis
Imagine how the social fabric is going to go through a shredder in places like Philly, NYC, LA, etc. when this thing blows up.
FYI proof is TWO TIMES the actual percent. 80 proof is 40% ethanol. you need something thats 70% so 140 proof or better.
Be like our forefathers and just weather through it.
I’ve seen the China curves, BUT are they believable and trustworthy? Authoritarian regimes do not report accurately. How suspect is their data?
Also, remember Katrina, where police stayed home to take care of their won families rather than showing up for work.
“If we did get 1,000,000 cases, and 15% of them needed hospitalization, that’s 150,000 cases at $1500/day
hospital stay for 3 weeks. That’s $675 million hit.”
What I think would really happen is that the health care system would get 100% booked to capacity .vs. say 70-90% today. Some of those treated patients will not have insurance and the government (you and me) will pay. The rest of the available capacity’s cost will be paid by private insurance.
Most patients will self treat at home and not cost the heath care insurance companies much money. A far greater proportion of those patients will die, but the health insurances companies will not be paying for their care.
Some Freepers posting here apparently don’t understand exponential growth either.
Maybe you can disinfect from the inside-out. ;o)
The ones that kill their host the fastest often die out with their host.
The ones that don’t kill or cause complications that kill can last and spread the longest.
The whole idea of life is to propagate. No one organism can live forever; all live through their progeny. Hard to propagate when you kill your entire world (the infected person).
A pandemic breeds itself out of the deadliest strains.
1 day.
1 second
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