Posted on 03/06/2020 10:19:16 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom
Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate.
We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.
We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.
As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.
What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted.
The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc).
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Don’t listen to PhD biochemist who’s speciality is crap like the impossible whopper
Listen to the docs and nurses who have always been in the field
This woman is a loon. Her estimates are wildly over blown
Only critical patients should be in hospitals. The rest of all y’all stay home
Good hygiene. Hand washing. Call the doctor’s office if you don’t feel well. They will tell you what to do
When small pox was rampant in this country people quarantined in place. Health care still wasn’t the best. Even then the death rates weren’t what she’s claiming for this virus
Everybody needs to settle down and quit buying the media hype
My guess is lots of folks here going nuts about this virus didn’t get a flu shot or a pneumonia shot. They won’t get the vaccine against this either
You life in California. If I were you I’d be more concerned with TB and typhoid and others third world diseases
For many people this is milder than the flu or the common cold. Many who test positive have few or no symptoms. These dire warnings have little basis unless this morphs into something much worse.
For many people this is milder than the flu or the common cold. Many who test positive have few or no symptoms. These dire warnings have little basis unless this morphs into something much worse.
The growth rate in the USA doesn’t look scary to me so far. So far there are enough ventilators for the oldies.
Korea has some impressive growth but I think it’s a little deceptive because much of the numbers are because they have drastically expanded testing compared to everywhere else (drive through testing).
Iran looks like it could be really bad, scary growth rate.
I think that’s the one place other than China I’d be scared right now.
Don’t know what is really going on in China, not going to guess.
Italy looks like a real hot spot, maybe that could become bad or be a vector for other places. Nothing like Iran, but worse than everywhere else (other than China).
The other thing to consider is these viruses seem to always die down with moister air from summer. In rare cases there is a resurgance fall/winter.
The thing people have to consider is the possibility of viral mutation, where a new strain can change everything fast. Though most often these mutations just result in it dying off faster
This all is just my informal take, don’t know anything special just following the news casually.
Everyone to get from street!
today I went to the area AFB....I got really cheap vodka, 80% proof, large bottle for under $9.....bought two....if my hand sanitzer runs out, which it will, I’ll have backup......
The exponential multiplier should end at 14 days for the initial population or a total of 16,000. Also, as clusters occur in roughly the first 4 days the doubling will cease upon discovering the source and its connections so the doubling of infections will not last 14 days in any given area.
So because of limiting factors on exponential growth the model will find a stopping point as the number of new cases equals the number of recovers. With better testing and prevention this affected population will peak then subside.
and people seem to forget that Malaria kills ONE million people a year, but their African blacks so I guess they don’t matter......
ok I just looked the numbers again. Italy is just as bad as iran.
CDC sez first choice is soap and water =>
Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom; before eating; and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing.
If soap and water are not readily available, use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention-treatment.html
Bookmark
“BUT- let’s not forget, that viruses TEND TO burn themselves out pretty rapidly once they hit peak and begin declining in numbers of new cases”
I have no idea what that means. Viruses “burn” themselves out??? How?
The only possible way viruses cease to be a problem is if they...
1. run out of “infectable” people
or
2. a vaccine exterminates or neutralizes them
or
3. carriers are so perfectly isolated that the main population is unaffected
LOL. If any of this were remotely true, the healthcare system would collapse 6 months out of every year just from influenza.
Interesting but I think you have forgotten a few things. While the existing supply of masks is “finite” (i.e. already made, boxed and either in a story, medical facility, or on its way), the manufacturing of masks is an ongoing process, and can even be run with 3 shifts or more depending on the supply of raw materials and trained workers.
In other words, production should eventually keep up with demand or even supersede it.
Another overlooked factor is the U.S. military. They have medical facilities on their bases (somewhat limited but available in times of emergencies, but our greatest logistical advantage is our ability to put major temporary field facilities up and ready to go in a very short period of time (i.e. Tent Cities with basic sanitation (i.e. outdoor latrines in isolated sections of the encampments) which are themselves in isolation from the general populace.
When the terrible earthquakes and tsunamis hit Indonedia, Ceylon (Sri Lanka), Thailand, possibly India, etc. about 10-15 years ago), our Navy put a whole U.S. city of 10,000 people in the area of the disasters near Indonesia in a matter of days. (Remember, an aircraft carrier can have a crew of up to 5,000 people).
We have a good number of aircraft carriers on various stations and some in ports for repairs or R&R. Other ships, esp. supply ships are also readily available to carry supplies to any coastal area of the US and its territories should the need arise to deliver anti-Virus supplies and health/living facilities for the people in heavily impacted areas (say Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, coastal US states/cities/ports).
We have enough unoccupied land in the continental US to house hundreds of thousands of infected or suspected infected people (our deserts are vast, so are parts of Alaska, Texas, Wyoming/Montana, etc.)
My son’s Army Engineering company put up several major temporary and/or permanent bridges in a matter of hours while under fire in Iraq. The COE (Army), Seabees (old Navy engineers), and other specially trained military units could create major tent cities/facilities in a matter of hours upon reaching the designed holding areas. That is what they were trained for, and trained well at that.
We underestimate our ability to do miracles in a normal. everyday manner. I remember an old saying that goes roughly like this (from the military, possible Corps of Engineers or the Marines). “We can do the possible immediately; the impossible take’s a little bit longer”.
Thank God we have enough men and women in the military and health support agencies/facilities to take on a major disaster immediately. I would put my money on them any day.
Millenial snowflakes need not apply. You’d only get in the way of “real people”.
Viruses are shed proteins that continuously mutate, so they eventually mutate to the point where they are no longer infectious.
I think we may be looking at door #3.
max,
not at all sure the source, but another version runs along the lines of:
the difficult we do immediately,
the impossible just takes a little bit longer
good aspiration/declaration/description either way
really?...vodka not good enough?.....shucks, I’ll have to drink it then....
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