Posted on 03/06/2020 10:19:16 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom
Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate.
We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.
We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.
As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.
What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted.
The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc).
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I turn 65 next month. Not sure if I want to visit any medical facility.
I need cataract surgery — may decide to wait for now.
Gee. Why stop your analysis at the collapse of the hospital system? If that happens, there will be a next day. What happens then?
I think I saw this movie.
There are IIRC three major proteins in flu virus that are antigenic. There are umpteen plus combinations and permutations. Each “new” one is like a “new” virus. So what you are seeing is antigenic shifts causing new outbreaks that attenuate producing that saw pattern.
You are not medically informed. You can throw math down all you want. That does not change what is happening medically on the ground
I’m still waiting to die from the Ebola virus or swine flu ( the last coved virus)
who said i wasn’t gonna?
exactly- just watched a video of a young girl get attacked by a mob of yutes who stole her sneakers and computer- and watching how crowds of people came running to the scene, not to help her- but to get in on the action, was absolutely disgusting- they stomped her unconscious- she’;s in the hospital right now-
Watching how quickly the bystanders jumped in on the crime , and watching HOW MANY jumpers in was horrible- it went from a scene where people were just walking down the street- a crowded street sidewalk, to chaos and anarchy in a matter of seconds-
To liberals out there— What a brilliant polite respectful society we’ve become thanks to democrats-! /s
[[but its no where near the level of “bring out your dead”.]]
Not now it isn’t- but it hasn’t even started here yet- as the article points out- IF, and it’s a big if, IF this virus turns into a pandemic- then yes- it could result in ‘bring out your dead’- but like i and others have stated, viruses ‘tend to’ dwindle in severity, and the threat burns itself out- usually- every now and again though it doesn’t- and that’s what folks are cautious about, and they should be
As the old adage goes- it’s better to have it and not need it, then to need it and not have it’- so folks are stocking up on things ‘just incase’ this virus really takes off- so they can stay home, and not go into public unless absolutely necessary in order to cut down on the chances of getting it- that’s all we can do- we need to leave the rest to God- Rely on God, but do our part to decrease chances-
Noone’s saying we should jump off buildings- Folks are just saying we should prepare- if we prepare, then we can face it IF it hits- if we’re not prepared- then we could be increasing our chances of not getting through it because we don’t know what kind of effect it will have on folks- healthy people in prime of life are dying from it- from what we’re reading- and others breeze right through it no problems- we don’t know why it affects some so severely, while others it doesn’t-
Another point- folks say ‘it’s no worse than the flu’ but in 2017 the flu killed 80,000 people in America alone- Healthy and unhealthy alike- just like this virus- Many folks say they always make it through flues with no real issues- but the fact is, they do make it through, until that one where they don’t- it’s never a bad thing to do whatever we can to try to help make it through, whether it be a ‘common flu’ or a virus like this- people shouldn’t take either flues or viruses for granted- thinking that it ‘only happens to others, not us’- one should always do whatever they can to try to mitigate the consequences as much as possible-
As healthy folks, we tend to think we’re invulnerable- that deaths from flu only happen to unhealthy folks- that flues can’t bring us down- Well, They can- and do- even healthy people in their primes-
Yes, people are worrying about a few 1000 cases- because of the potential- and rightfully so- we should always try to prepare for outbreaks- while this particular virus may never take hold and spread like wildfire, it’s just a matter of time before one does- God will be bringing disease and pestilence ‘at some point’ - but in the meantime, viruses do pose a threat- but fortunately, we do our best to contain them, create vaccines, and weather through them- IF for instance, this starts hitting schools hard, then schools all over will close down for a period of time- and folks will be urged to stay indoors- away from public as much as possible- some states are already doing that-
We tend to think that ‘oh well, so some already sick elderly folks will die- no big deal’ but it is a big deal to those families, and lived ones- there may be only several 10’s of 1000’s of people that die from this i n the end, but that is 10’s of 1000’s of families that have been devastated by it-
[[Not sure if I want to visit any medical facility.]]
Unfortunately i have to- twice this month- Yuck!
[[I need cataract surgery — may decide to wait for now.]]
Might be wise- but if you can’t- bring hand sanitizer with you- keep wiping hands, face, beard if you have one- even slightly into the nostrils- as that is where most flues start- might wanna sit with a handkerchief over mouth i n waiting room - discreetly- use the hospitals hand sanitizers whenever you have to touch anything like door knobs, pens, forms, etc- Take plenty of Zinc beforehand- and I woudl also take 50,00 iu of Vit D (They call it the ‘Vit D Hammer”) right before appointment- but discuss taking it with doc first- don’t know if it will interact with surgery or not- don’t think it iwll- but check-
[[the complete mess that was made of our testing readiness, or the lack of stockpiled masks.]]
absolutely- not just stockpiled masks, but all the things they ARE going to run out of quickly if they get overwhelmed- like Saline drip bags, needles, hospital quality disinfectant, etc etc etc- We KNOW that many flues and viruses ‘have a potential’ of becoming pandemic, and we’ve known this for centuries, but still we seem to always be ‘caught off guard’ and unprepared- It’s not like these things are sneaking up on us and taking us by surprise-
[[Insisting that people are “screened” before they are let on a plane is insulting our intelligence. ]]
Yup- Been making the argument from the start that there is no way we can contain this because of this very issue— there will be millions of people walking the streets- at work, at ball games who don’t show any signs or only mild symptoms- even many who were screened who later that week, after being screened getting off planes, that come down with this- and too many people can’t afford to stay home from work, so they go when they are not feeling well- and keep their mouths shut about being sick and try to hide it-
We can only hope to lessen the impact- until the threat burns itself out- like we have with other viruses
Anybody here have an experience with oximeter measuremeents ?
What do you find to be a good brand.
Age 64 here with some nightly breathing issues.
I’m told to get a model with overnight logging capabilities.
Well we kinda are saying the same thing. It IS right to be cautious. I think we have both lived through these types of outbreaks before, notably the bird flu a few years back. No one then said to play basketball with no fans present or tried to quarantine entire cities or canceled schools because someone 3 states away died from the disease and a weakened immune system.
I call that panic and not an abundance of caution. But maybe its just semantics. I do tend to be cynical and skeptical.
“No one is saying we should jump off buildings...” I think they are...and that is causing the panic among normally sane people. I mean, I know its anecdotal but my Walmart is completely wiped out of any kind of hand sanitizer like purell. That has NEVER happened before. Thats panic buying.
Like you, I hope and pray this never gets to the worst case. I hope with warm weather coming, it will abate like most other viruses.
Yeah, I know what you mean. If we don’t take care of our own, we got no country.
However, the $1500/day is based on occupancy factors and staff loading under normal average conditions, while in a pandemic situation the staff and facilities, and the associated cost, can by necessity not be scaled up significantly but will be spread over a much larger patient load. I would hope and expect that the government’s public health emergency declaration contains provisions for imposing special treatment of per patient cost.
Oh, I did times 3 instead of 21 days.
Yikes, I making simple math mistakes these days.
Yeah, I think that’s easily enough to break the system.
Good cache.
Medicare sometimes rolls out retroactive adjustments that providers like hospitals just can’t argue with.
Insurance companies usually have a hard rate that was negotiated in advance.
Uninsured get hit with the full charges which vary by hospital. Most will go bankrupt if they get it.
Hospitals that are currently in financial trouble due to indigent care will go under. Hospitals with enough insured patients will do fine.
Medical insurers, I think are going to take it on the chin.
Agreed. As long as they are telling the truth. It also implies that finding all the unreported infected is largely what got them from where they began to stabilize at 35-40% down to around 6%, rather than the 6% going down when they find the masses of unreported.
Regardless, basic planning is good. Panic can be more harmful than a moderate disaster. We saw it with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and the Exxon Valdez spill, where the government over-reaction could have been more devastating than the spills themselves.
sounds like bullshit to me. ok how about AIDS? where is the attenuation there?
Probably off by a factor of ten or more. Lots of asymptomatic transmission going on on the West Coast.
But the system won't have to wait for HCWs to get sick to collapse, because enough of them will be in quarantine by the end of April to collapse it.
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