Posted on 03/06/2020 5:00:30 AM PST by cll
This overview is an attempt to provide some context and clarity around the COVID-19 outbreak and to avoid some of the noise and “bite-size” information that is flowing through traditional mainstream media outlets.
Please note that the “media” discussion is simply regarding the speed of information flowing and the lack of a “contextual” approach to what is happening around the globe due to that speed.
The 30,000-Foot View
The risk assessment for most of the world remains very low according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will be referenced throughout this overview.
(Excerpt) Read more at meetingstoday.com ...
“Michael Dominguez, president and CEO of Associated Luxury Hotels International and a leader in the meetings and events industry”
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Harrumph:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgF_hP4GO_Q
Uh oh. FearRepublic will call you a denier. Rational thought is not allowed. It’s the end of the world or bust for these big government anti-freedom totalitarians here.
Are you willing to walk into a room of a quarantined suspected case without any protection?
If so, I think there will be a lot of people who can use your help.
Where do you plan to volunteer?
I’ve had a bad cold for the past week and finally forced my way in to see my doctor. I should mention we have a large medical research community here (San Antonio) and he moonlights there working on research projects. Thankfully I do just have a bad cold, but in the conversation he mentioned several things I didn’t like to hear:
1. “Almost every week we find out things we though we knew for sure about this stuff are wrong.”
2. There’s not any news, good or bad, coming out of China that we should believe.
3. The people they said were over this stuff and caught it again, probably weren’t over it at all.
4. The accuracy of the test(s) we have for this stuff seems to vary with people tremendously.
To sum it up, I’m not going to worry about it too much because it doesn’t sound like we know enough about this crap to have any clear course of action. I don’t want somebody sneezing or coughing right in my face, but that would be true even if they just had the common cold.
But I’ll admit it’s probably going to be a bumpy ride for a few months.
I thought that your comment was very sensible!
Some reaction:
#1 Things we thought about this that were wrong. It is still early but we can see how this thing is killing people who get it.
#2 There is news from Italy, Korea, and other places.
#3 People ..caught it again. This one goes with knowing or not (#1) about the virus itself. There are viruses that do not cause any lasting immunity, and no vaccine will work. There are viruses whose vaccine actually makes it easier to get infected. There are viruses that hide from the test, so you test clear but are not, but maybe you are clear but you get reinfected.
#4 Accuracy of test- Well if knowing for sure that you have COVID-19 instead of some other virus makes a difference in treatment or in quarantine policy then the test will be very important.
How deadly is it? I think we are seeing enough to get a good idea that it is more deadly than seasonal flu, less deadly than SARS.
How easy is it to get it? Harder to get than seasonal flu but easier to get than SARS.
About the bumpy ride, if this is like other corona viruses see #1, and like the flu, then it will go away when warm weather comes, it will reappear next fall and it will be bumpy while lots more people get it.
If it is like other viruses that can stand the heat, see #1, then the rates may steady out but it will not go away like the flu.
According to the CDC, there have been between 18,000 and 46,000 (their numbers, not mine) US deaths from the FLU this flu season, which doesn’t end until May.
https://www.cato.org/blog/covid-19-deaths-incredible-who-estimates
Remember the SARS (2004), Avian Flu (2008), Swine Flu (2010), MERS (2012), Ebola I (2014) or Zika Virus (2016) “pandemics”? By my count, according to WHO and CDC numbers, total US deaths from all of those “pandemics” amounted to about 16,500.
Are you willing to walk into a room of a quarantined suspected case without any protection?
If so, I think there will be a lot of people who can use your help.
Where do you plan to volunteer?
The more I know about virology the better I can know what to do and how to help. All the talk now is about the epidemiology, the spread of it and the means and extent of infection. What we really need to know first is virulence! Is it gonna kill us all? I don't think so, but there is a governing principle with all diseases that applies here: the more virulent it is the harder it is to get it, the less virulent it is, the easier it is to get it.
If people are dying in your african village from ebola, then you will run for your life but die on the path before you can get to the next village. If however, people at work are coughing and sneezing and feeling bad, you tell 'em to go home and rest.
Nothing about this is going to make me turn my life upside down, but it probably will make me think a bit more. Taking a trip somewhere on a plane, “just because we haven’t been there for a while” is probably not going to happen. Hanging around with large crowds is probably going to lead to, “do I really need to be here?”
Things I really want to do are going to get done. Things that were being done just for the heck of it - maybe not.
Somebody who might be susceptible to dying from any kind of viral pneumonia, they really don’t want to get this. There seems to be reason to believe that the “cytokine storm” which kills people so fast that you cannot help them, is dependent on genetics, which is why they talk a lot about asian male populations. In Wuhan there is terrible air pollution and a lot of smokers.
Bad lungs?
Heart disease?
Smoker?
Family member died of pneumonia?
We would be wise to prepare to meet God.
I am and will gladly do so. Oh no I might get sick and have a cough for a few weeks. Been there done that.. it’s called the flu.. so I might be sick for 5 days instead of 3. Thankfully I’m not 82. :)
Found an article at Bio Med Central you might want to breeze through to understand where I am coming from.
https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-019-3707-y
The American Association of Anethesiologists is assuming aerosol transmission, being extra careful I think. Here is their link:
https://www.asahq.org/about-asa/governance-and-committees/asa-committees/committee-on-occupational-health/coronavirus
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