Posted on 03/05/2020 5:46:59 PM PST by Brown Deer
CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through February 22, 2020, there have been:
32,000,000 – 45,000,000 flu illnesses
14,000,000 – 21,000,000 flu medical visits
310,000 – 560,000 flu hospitalizations
18,000 – 46,000 flu deaths
*Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza. These estimates are calculated based on CDC’s weekly influenza surveillance data and are preliminary.
(Excerpt) Read more at cdc.gov ...
And over a hundred kids.
Every time a virus comes through, we see hysterics.
We get death rates based on reported cases and the number of deaths.
6 months later we find out a couple millions people had the virus and only sneezed a few times.
I think it was SARS that went from 60% to 2%.
And yet the media gets into hysterics over coronavirus with just 11 dead. Go figure.
310,000 – 560,000 flu hospitalizations, and 18,000 – 46,000 flu deaths...assuming the deaths were all hospitalized folks, if we take the bottom and top end estimates, the ratio range of deaths to resolved and confirmed cases is 18k/310k and 46k/560k = 5.8%- 8.2%.
As of now, per JH, we have 3,383 deaths and 55,398 resolved cases, for a comparable percentage of 5.76%.
That would put the global coronavirus percentage at the low end of current US season's influenza strain.
Now, yes...I know..,there are a LOT of factors and estimates and likely made-up data from PRC in these data.
But it IS something to ponder.
It depends where you read the stats.
Medical literature has it around 2%.
I kinda do medical stuff for a living. Medical journals are way less emotional and manipulative than MSM.
It’s just the flu. Oh, wait, in this case it actually is the flu.
They list the number of people that died, went to hospital or in some other way had the disease and knew about it. They don’t, and can’t count the people that never noticed they had the flu.
Also, the last time you got the flu (that you know of), who gave it to you? You probably don’t know. Who did you give it to? You probably don’t know that, either.
The flu is endemic. It cannot be contained or even slowed down appreciably, vaccines notwithstanding. This year is an average year, flu-wise. In a bad year it has killed double what this year’s toll looks like. In a “good” year it might only kill 12,000. On average, 0.1% of the people that contract it badly enough to notice and take some action, will die.
So we are used to it, have the ability to make vaccines and even occasionally guess right about which one we’ll need.
It’s a good thing some novel virus does not arise and spread across the globe, particularly one that is more lethal by an order of magnitude, spreads 4-5 times as fast, with a long incubation time, a long recovery time and especially one that could be spread without the carrier showing symptoms or even knowing they have it, and for which we don’t have a vaccine. That would be a disaster, especially since many people would resist taking the simplest of precautions.
Are we not lucky no such disease is loose in the world?
The WHO says it was 14 to 15%
Good thing SARS didn't keep spreading like CV19 is.
How come we never catch anything “good”?
I started to get my flu this past Sunday.
It pretty much wiped me out quickly over the course of Sunday. I was at work when it came on so between my physical job and it, I was dead to the world on Monday after my two shifts.
I have had worse as a kid/adult, though.
I’m still weak, but feeling better today.
And I did get a free flu shot at my job in Oct.
I can definitely see why people expire from it.
Yesterday, I started to feel better, but then got some weird feelings and had to lie down for pretty much the rest of the day.
Bring Out Your Dead
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.
What most folks don't focus on, is that at this moment there are only
39,588 active cases.
Those cases are about to start rising again. Last night the day
ended with 38,740 active cases, but inner day numbers always eclipse
the end of the day numbers.
Numbers of resolved cases is on the increase. The outside China
cases are becoming ripe. Folks are being declared recovered in that
body of patients now. It remains to be seen just how large a body
of active cases we wind up with now, since resolved cases will be
competing with new declarations.
I don't think we'll see the kind of numbers of cases in the U. S.
that you mention here, but nobody can read the tea leaves that well.
The U. S. is in danger of "breaking out" > IMO.
I don't like the daily growth I'm seeing.
We've got a front row seat.
Hospitalizations are not confirmed cases. If your doctor or even you yourself decided you had the flu and took Tamiflu or some home concoction or even just went back to bed, those cases count. So your denominator needs to be the 32 million number to even be the same kind of comparison. That drops your number by a factor of 100 to the .05% number the CDC currently cites for this year.
Add to that the fact that in much of the world outside of China if you think you might have CV, you get tested and then you and everyone you’ve been in contact with gets quarantined, even if they are not symptomatic. In the civilized world, anyway. While that is not an absolute it is common, and when those people test positive but never show symptoms (mild, asymptomatic) they get rolled into the confirmed category even though they would never be counted if it were the flu. This inflates the CV confirmed stats in a way that does not happen with the flu, thus artificially diluting its relative lethality (and feeding the ‘but flu’ trolls).
The point is that there are two different accounting methods. This causes problems and misrepresents the true dangers - simplest case, you figure it’s probably going to be mild and then it isn’t and your life is in jeopardy.
Sidebar: There are videos of children in Iran suffering from this disease. They are not immune.
Sidebar: It’s not the end of the world, either. Buy on the second bounce.
1) those numbers are VERY broad, but it is still during the season.
2) this was a *much* more widespread flu outbreak than typical, and may have been more lethal than usual.
3) the recommended response to COVID-19 will help with this too, and if the flu hasn’t peaked yet, it should help dramatically at reducing its spread.
4) the things that we should have been doing for the flu are the most useful things against COVID.
If you’re going to compare the hospitalized, you should compare the hospitalized to the hospitalized, not the hospitalized to the identified/quarantined.
Isn't the "flue illnesses" number an estimated number?
Yes, because they don’t take a census and ask everyone “did you have the flu this year”. It’s more like a poll where they ask a subset of people and rely on other statistical data, like, perhaps, how much of a certain medication was purchased. That’s why they have a broad range.
But if they asked a person that didn’t know they had had the flu, and the person says no, how do they count them? They can’t. We don’t have the means or facilities to test people with no symptoms for a disease they might barely have. That might not be too far off in the future - active personal health monitors that test continuously for anything you might imagine - but right now its a statistic we don’t measure.
China was only testing/confirming severe cases. Every video in January, before the crackdown truth tellers, showed people being turned away because the symptoms where not severe enough. Using CDC’s mild/asymptomatic ratio, the actual cases in hubei could easily be 4X to 5X the “confirmed numbers, even without an complete breakdown of the medical distribution in the area.
The Chinese numbers are bad. Use the Korean numbers as they seem to be testing everybody with symptoms:
6,284 Confirmed, 42 dead + 27 Serious + 25 Critical = 94 dead/possible deaths
94 / 6,284 = 1.5% worst case mortality in South Korea.
We may be mixing mild CV cases into the Influenza statistics this season. Without testing, how to know?
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