I dont know, thats what I'm asking you...
Posted on 03/03/2020 3:07:04 PM PST by kristinn
As I stated in my post, I am estimating the number of infected in Hubei province by the number of people that got infected on that Princes cruise ship who were made to be in close proximity to each other for an extended period. I agree with you that the number of dead are probably underestimated, but you have to work hard to get rid of bodies. The virus does not have to work hard to infect a crowded city of people forced to stay there.
Thanks for this reality check:
The article is nonsense. How can they know the death rate when they have yet to determine how many have contracted this virus? Answer is they cannot.
The new reliable sensitivity tests from CDC are just arriving this week. So we have zero validity of any so called infection until these tests are mastered and used properly.
In the past week more people have died from the flu than have ever died from Coronavirus!
Exactly! Now prepare to be attacked for posting that reality.
if we have no idea how many people have/had it, then how the hell do we know the death rate? The only thing we know for certain is the deaths attributed to it is a much more accurate figure then the amount of people infected.
Therefore...the death rate is most likely LESS then we think.
Hell, I had what I self-diagnosed as walking pneumonia a month ago....for all I know it might have been corona and I might be a survivor
Well so far nobody has yet attacked me on Freep, but on Facebook, and other lib sites, holy smoke! Matter of fact I got banned from Facebook for 3 days after posting that.
This is all another hoax designed solely to harm Trump. We had the Russia collusion hoax, the Ukraine hoax, and now we have the killer virus hoax. I’m not saying Coronavirus is safe, but it’s nowhere near the death toll of the flu which killed 646,000 people last year and I don’t see the flu being portrayed as the modern day version of the black plague. Why? Because people are use to the flu.
The Coronavirus on the other hand is new and mysterious and can be twisted, and once the left saw how it was affecting the stock market, they went all out negative 24 hours a day in the media with it and I guarantee you 100% they will next accuse Trump of being weak on the border risking millions of lives if they haven’t already. Yes, they have the audacity to say that.
I’m not the one panicking. Nor am I creating hysteria. Feel free to review my entire posting history if you like. I have been a moderate the entire time, telling the apocalyptics that this is not the end of the world and telling the complacents that this isn’t just another flu. The apocalyptics have pretty much calmed down. There are a few still overreacting. Too many of the complacents are still panicking over an imaginary mass hysteria, creating the very thing they fear. So stop it.
You are rationalizing the deaths of other people for a silly political point. That seems pretty callous to me.
They didn’t die from colds or even the flu, they died of the CV. And more of them died than would likely have from the flu or from colds. And more other people will die and already have died than would have. So instead of being a Meta Concern Troll, why don’t you stop the hand waving and start thinking about ways to *save* some of those lives?
How do you know they would not have died from the flu THAT is pretty presumptuous of you!!!
I’m not sure the Princess situation can be used all that well to hypothesize about Wuhan.
Perhaps they correlate perfectly, but I am not remotely confident that the city of Wuhan got the kind of hyper-focused attention that the people on the Princess did.
The Princess never had its health care system collapse, but people were being turned away in droves in Wuhan prior to the failure of their health care system and the news blackout.
And as I described, it is easy to hide bodies when you are disposing of them nonstop under the governance of an authoritarian regime in a sealed city. Who’s gonna blow the whistle? It’s a death sentence inside China and outside you risk your career and/or mass hysteria. We’ll find out after this is over, maybe, if it’s still news.
Who is freaking out is determined by the number of exclamation points they feel are required on every sentence.
“In the past week more people have died from the flu than have ever died from Coronavirus”
It’s a good thing the CV is not ubiquitous like the flu.
We’ve dealt with the false logic of your argument many times over the past weeks. you should go back and do some reading.
“Almost NONE of these cases are counted in the “confirmed cases” outside of the US.”
That’s not true. Many confirmed cases are people that were tested because they came in contact with someone else that was confirmed after they were tested because they came in contact with someone else that was confirmed...
Look at Singapore, S. Korea and many other places that are not the USA.
The rest of your argument is moot.
That's what everyone keeps pointing out.
But isn't the mortality rate for any illness (such as influenza) based on the number of confirmed cases? Whereas the number of actual cases could be much higher?
That is, many people catch the flu but don't see a doctor. So, couldn't the mortality rate for the flu be even lower than we think it is?
“How do you know they would not have died from the flu THAT is pretty presumptuous of you!!!”
See? Three exclamation points. Stop being hysterical and creating panic.
The answer to your question is: statistics.
We don’t know exactly which individuals will die from flu or colds or what ever, we only know how many are likely to die.
But your assumption that they would have died anyway is not only presumptuous but callous as well.
You are correct. Two different standards are being applied to the flu and CV by people that want to downplay the CV problem.
I dont know, thats what I'm asking you...
Lets look at Singapore.
Singapore had 2,900 people on mandatory 14 day home quarantine. It is highly likely that a significant number of these were mild/asymptomatic. Singapore is only testing/confirming people that show pneumatic symptoms that seek treatment for the virus.
They weren’t testing people in families with the virus, they were just confining them to their house for 14 days. Singaporeans do what the government tells them.
Government do not want to be on leaderboard of # of cases, so they limit the testing to those hospitalized, while the WHO wants everyone to think “this the end of the world!!!!” because in a separate press release they beg for money.
Haha. When I saw the headline, that skit was my first thought, too.
“It is highly likely that a significant number of these were mild/asymptomatic.”
You are speculating with other people’s lives. You do not know whether or not they were infected. If they were quarantined for only 14 days then it is almost certain they were not infected because the incubation period is often longer - so no symptoms - but infected people can still be contagious without being symptomatic. Yet there are no further cases of transmission from these people, right?
So, if as you say, they were mild asymptomatic cases, are you also claiming that such cases are not contagious? That would be the only way your logic could work.
Perhaps they did the logical thing and traced actual cases, testing people who had contact with confirmed cases. They make the stinkin’ test kits, after all.
They also produced an infection map which has been posted here on FR a number of times. They could not do that with just arbitrary quarantines.
“while the WHO wants everyone to think “this the end of the world!!!!””
The WHO was downplaying the risk for quite a while, or so many have claimed. Now you say they are inciting panic? I don’t recall the WHO claiming this is the end of the world at all. They have advised certain practices and procedures, usually too slowly to help, and they seem largely to be late to the party.
Why are you so concerned that others are concerned about this virus? Do you own stock in an undertaker?
My company has 4,000 employees in the plastic paradise of Singapore. On some things they are the sole world's source. For other things, my division in Texas is the only other source. I have monitored the situation in Singapore for over a month. A month ago I told my wife to go out and buy a 14 day supply of non perishable food and put it away, based on what the government of Singapore was doing to people "exposed" to the virus. I monitor the reports from MOH.gov.sg daily.
Singapore is only confirming people that check into the Hospital for treatment for pneumonia, the rest of the people are confined at home quarantine and told to hang tight unless the have breathing problems + high fever for more than 5 days AND ARE CONTACTED DAILY by the SG MOH. Currently there are 355 under home quarantine and 2,900 have completed their 14 day quarantine...some were held longer based on their daily contacts with the MOH.
Don't believe me? Here is the MOH update from Feb 14:
9. Healthcare professionals have been advised to provide medical certificates of five days for their patients with respiratory symptoms. Patients will be referred for further medical assessment and tests if they do not recover within five days. Should their symptoms persist or deteriorate, patients are advised to return to the same doctor to seek further treatment.
10. Patients must recognise the importance of staying home when unwell. Mixing in large crowds, or continuing to go to work or school when ill, even with mild symptoms, will put others at risk.
The above is for people with symptoms NOT known contacts that are quarantined. There is NOTHING in SG MOH's daily update to indicate they used a test kit on any of the 3,200 Quarantined people, unless their "respiratory symptoms persist for at least 5 days". SG is very conscious of what the world thinks about them. They will do what it takes not to be in the top 5 on the BNO leaderboard. If that means not testing mild/asymptomatic cases, they aren't going to test mild/asymptomatic cases.
If I was typing this from SG, I would get a knock on my door later tonight, so you aren't going to hear any of this from them. No where in their daily reports say they are testing ANY of quarantined people. If they were, they would say it.
Hundreds of people likely have had Covid 19 in SG and no one has died. Using the 85% mild/asymptomatic CDC estimate and 110 "confirmed cases", 500 people in SG (400 extra "unconfirmed" in the 3,200 quarantined) could have had Covid 19 and if 1 eventually dies, that is a .2% death rate, not 3.4%. Even with the "Confirmed", tested cases, if 1 dies its 1%.
I'm an engineer. I'm looking at the facts and what governments are saying. Based on SG, 3.4% death rate is not a 1st world country number. People who say it will be 3.4% in the US are not basing this on reality and are spreading needless fear to the sheeple.
I’m listening to the president right now on hannity say the same thing. Many cases are so mild they go undetected.
Flu deaths per 100,000 in the usa are about 15.
For corona right now its much <1 per 100,000
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