As I stated in my post, I am estimating the number of infected in Hubei province by the number of people that got infected on that Princes cruise ship who were made to be in close proximity to each other for an extended period. I agree with you that the number of dead are probably underestimated, but you have to work hard to get rid of bodies. The virus does not have to work hard to infect a crowded city of people forced to stay there.
I’m not sure the Princess situation can be used all that well to hypothesize about Wuhan.
Perhaps they correlate perfectly, but I am not remotely confident that the city of Wuhan got the kind of hyper-focused attention that the people on the Princess did.
The Princess never had its health care system collapse, but people were being turned away in droves in Wuhan prior to the failure of their health care system and the news blackout.
And as I described, it is easy to hide bodies when you are disposing of them nonstop under the governance of an authoritarian regime in a sealed city. Who’s gonna blow the whistle? It’s a death sentence inside China and outside you risk your career and/or mass hysteria. We’ll find out after this is over, maybe, if it’s still news.