Deciphering Turkey’s darkest night in Syria

Al-Monitor ^ | February 28, 2020 | Metin Gurcan

[Zhang Fei]

Ankara’s official death toll stood at 33 on the morning of Feb. 28, with 60 other troops wounded, among them 16 with serious injuries. It was still unclear whether any soldiers could be still trapped under the rubble. According to unconfirmed information obtained by Al-Monitor, the actual death toll is somewhere between 50 and 55.

What caused Russia to react so violently and provocatively while a Russian delegation was holding talks in Ankara in a bid to ease the tensions in Idlib?

The battlefield had grown highly explosive since Feb. 20, when two Turkish tank crewmen were killed in an air raid on Turkish M60 Sabre tanks in southern Idlib. The situation escalated further on Feb. 25-26, when — amid ongoing operations by Syrian government forces, backed by Russian airpower, in southern Idlib — SNA forces, supported by the Turkish military, launched a counterattack in the Nayrab-Saraqeb area, taking control of Nayrab and marching on to Saraqeb, which lies at the junction of the strategic M4 and M5 highways, while managing to block the M5 at several points only days after the road had been reopened.

Things came to a head on the morning of Feb. 27, when according to Russian media, Russian aircraft flying over southern Idlib became the target of intensive fire from man-portable air-defense systems, known as MANPADS, from Turkish military outposts in the area. Simultaneously, MANPADS and drone attacks reportedly threatened the Khmeimim base, Russia’s key military facility in Syria. Russian sources, contacted by Al-Monitor, claim that more than 15 MANPADS attacks, carried out directly by Turkish troops, targeted Russian and Syrian jets conducting air raids in southern Idlib after 1 p.m. that day. Some Russian aircraft allegedly suffered damage as they maneuvered to escape the fire. As the attacks on the planes and the Khmeimim

[bert]

Give war a chance

[Spktyr]

Thing is, they don’t *need* them. They have an unrestricted license to make FIM-92 Stingers and are still cranking them out by the thousand.

[PIF]

S400 batteries have yet to down a single plane. The “kill switch” is the Russian trainers - the turks cannot operate them independently for at least another year if then.

[BobL]

Ok, thanks. I do know that Israel doesn’t look forward to having to deal with them.

[Zhang Fei]

[Ok, thanks. I do know that Israel doesn’t look forward to having to deal with them.]

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Every new weapon system is a step into the unknown. My impression is that Russian weaponry always comes with great published specs that don’t necessarily translate into practice. But even when effective, workarounds can be figured out surprisingly quickly. During the Yom Kippur War in the 70’s, Russian SAMs and RPGs did a number on Israeli defenses and counter-attacks. Then the Israelis worked out counters to the equipment and began rolling up Egyptian and Syrian columns and positions. By the 80’s, they were routinely racking up victories against Syrian aircraft and SAMs alike in Lebanon, and brushing aside their infantry and armor.

[BobL]

“By the 80’s, they were routinely racking up victories against Syrian aircraft and SAMs alike in Lebanon, and brushing aside their infantry and armor.”

I also remember the 82 war in Lebanon. The Russian S200s there got hammered by Israel...EXCEPT when manned by Russians (as opposed to Syrians) - for those, Israel still prevailed, but did lose planes in the process.

[Zhang Fei]

[I also remember the 82 war in Lebanon. The Russian S200s there got hammered by Israel...EXCEPT when manned by Russians (as opposed to Syrians) - for those, Israel still prevailed, but did lose planes in the process.]

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To my knowledge, Israel lost 1 plane in Lebanon in the 80’s, as a result of the premature detonation of a bomb it dropped. They’re still looking for Ron Arad.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disappearance_of_Ron_Arad

[NorseViking]

Turkey right now is a USSR of 1941 minus manpower and heavy industry. Erdogan purged everyone who are smart in the military years ago.