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Deciphering Turkey’s darkest night in Syria
Al-Monitor ^ | February 28, 2020 | Metin Gurcan

Posted on 02/28/2020 6:52:17 PM PST by Zhang Fei

Ankara’s official death toll stood at 33 on the morning of Feb. 28, with 60 other troops wounded, among them 16 with serious injuries. It was still unclear whether any soldiers could be still trapped under the rubble. According to unconfirmed information obtained by Al-Monitor, the actual death toll is somewhere between 50 and 55.

What caused Russia to react so violently and provocatively while a Russian delegation was holding talks in Ankara in a bid to ease the tensions in Idlib?

The battlefield had grown highly explosive since Feb. 20, when two Turkish tank crewmen were killed in an air raid on Turkish M60 Sabre tanks in southern Idlib. The situation escalated further on Feb. 25-26, when — amid ongoing operations by Syrian government forces, backed by Russian airpower, in southern Idlib — SNA forces, supported by the Turkish military, launched a counterattack in the Nayrab-Saraqeb area, taking control of Nayrab and marching on to Saraqeb, which lies at the junction of the strategic M4 and M5 highways, while managing to block the M5 at several points only days after the road had been reopened.

Things came to a head on the morning of Feb. 27, when according to Russian media, Russian aircraft flying over southern Idlib became the target of intensive fire from man-portable air-defense systems, known as MANPADS, from Turkish military outposts in the area. Simultaneously, MANPADS and drone attacks reportedly threatened the Khmeimim base, Russia’s key military facility in Syria. Russian sources, contacted by Al-Monitor, claim that more than 15 MANPADS attacks, carried out directly by Turkish troops, targeted Russian and Syrian jets conducting air raids in southern Idlib after 1 p.m. that day. Some Russian aircraft allegedly suffered damage as they maneuvered to escape the fire. As the attacks on the planes and the Khmeimim

(Excerpt) Read more at al-monitor.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Syria
KEYWORDS: kag; maga; russia; syria; trump; turkey
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Detailed account of escalation leading up to the Russian airstrike on a Turkish column. Not quite as impressive as the US airstrike on Russian mercenaries years ago, but enough to get Erdogan in a tizzy. The US airstrike basically warned the Russians not to enter the Kurdish zone. Whereas the Turks struck at the Russian base in Syria. The Turks claim to have struck back hard after the latest Russian attack. If so, the Russians will likely hit the Turks again, perhaps with greater force.
1 posted on 02/28/2020 6:52:17 PM PST by Zhang Fei
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To: Zhang Fei

I guess I am out of touch. This is the first I have seen of this.


2 posted on 02/28/2020 7:10:05 PM PST by Ingtar (Bedbugs, thy name is Democrat.)
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To: All

I hope the warmongers don’t talk President Trump into getting involved, despite that Turkey is SUPPOSEDLY a NATO ‘ally’.

I’d feel better if NATO had kicked them out years ago... But at least Bolton is gone.


3 posted on 02/28/2020 7:15:26 PM PST by LegendHasIt
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To: Zhang Fei

Basher Assad is a brutal dictator. He was no threat to us and a minor threat to Israel. Obama and Hillary Clinton destabilized that nation during the “Arab Spring” in an attempt to remove him. They sent guns and support to radical Islamic groups. I have no idea what they desired as a replacement for Assad. They did the same thing in Libya. They set the Mid-East on fire.

Obama’s and Clinton’s actions have resulted in the death of many and a total humanitarian crisis of millions of innocents.


4 posted on 02/28/2020 7:25:03 PM PST by cpdiii ( canecutter, deckhand, roughneck, geologist, pilot, pharmacist THE CONSTITUTION IS WORTH DYING FOR)
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To: Zhang Fei

We have no vital national interest in Syria and no reason to get involved.


5 posted on 02/28/2020 7:29:37 PM PST by FLT-bird
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To: LegendHasIt

I hope the warmongers don’t talk President Trump into getting involved, despite that Turkey is SUPPOSEDLY a NATO ‘ally’.
*************************************************
Any consequences that Islamist Turkey suffers as a result of THEIR illegal invasion of a neighboring country is solely on them. No NATO ally owes them any help dealing with the consequences.


6 posted on 02/28/2020 7:33:47 PM PST by House Atreides (Boycott the NFL 100% — PERMANENTLY)
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To: Zhang Fei

Can’t wait until Turkey finds that those top-of-the-line Russian S400 Anti-Aircraft missiles (and they’re damn good!) have a kill switch that renders them inoperative against Russian aircraft.

Whoops.


7 posted on 02/28/2020 7:41:34 PM PST by BobL (If some people here don't want to prep for Coronavirus, they can explain it to their families)
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To: Zhang Fei

Being a Jihadi can be risky.


8 posted on 02/28/2020 7:46:39 PM PST by Paladin2
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To: BobL

same switch probably homes them in on Turkish radar sites or the launch origin GPS coordinates. Popping popcorn now!!


9 posted on 02/28/2020 7:50:31 PM PST by Waverunner (I'd like to welcome our new overlords, say hello to my little friend)
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To: Zhang Fei

Turkey is on its own, as an aggressor in Syria - NATO has no obligation to it.

The Assad Regime/Russians/Iranians should arm and unleash surrogates to bleed the Turks dry - just like the Turks armed and unleashed their jihadi surrogates into Syria.

Kurds could be pretty effective, given the right tools.


10 posted on 02/28/2020 8:05:16 PM PST by BeauBo
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To: House Atreides

Agree. The day Erogan managed to decimate the General Staff a few years ago marked the end of any hope of a democratic Turkey. Too bad, Izmir was a decent assignment in the early 70s.


11 posted on 02/28/2020 8:08:29 PM PST by CMSMC
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To: CMSMC

I am so glad Trump pulled out forces from Syria, in spite of all the catcalls from the demons and neocons


12 posted on 02/28/2020 8:15:38 PM PST by bboise
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To: BobL
Whoops could go the other way if Turkey chose to over-run all of Russia’s forces in Syria. They can’t be supported effectively if Turkey does not allow it and it seems doubtful Russia would make a nuclear response. Russia does not have many allies right now, so it is tough to predict how they would react if Turkey really punched them in the nose. Turkey and Russia have about the same population aged 15-30, but Russia needs to keep an eye on Ukraine, Poland, the Baltics, and the Far East. Russia sending 500,000 troops though the Caucasus and then fighting through the mountains in Turkey is not a credible threat. Putin wins if things stay small, but Erdogan has geography on his side if things escalate.
13 posted on 02/28/2020 9:43:55 PM PST by Kaisersrsic
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To: Kaisersrsic

If Turks over ran Russian Base, the Russians would answer in many horrible ways and defy NATO to do anything. Russians have nasty weapons that are not nukes.


14 posted on 02/28/2020 10:39:39 PM PST by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll Onward! Ride to the sound of the guns!)
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To: Kaisersrsic

If Turks over ran Russian Base, the Russians would answer in many horrible ways and defy NATO to do anything. Russians have nasty weapons that are not nukes.


15 posted on 02/28/2020 10:39:40 PM PST by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll Onward! Ride to the sound of the guns!)
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To: Kaisersrsic

If Turks over ran Russian Base, the Russians would answer in many horrible ways and defy NATO to do anything. Russians have nasty weapons that are not nukes.


16 posted on 02/28/2020 10:39:40 PM PST by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll Onward! Ride to the sound of the guns!)
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To: Kaisersrsic

[Whoops could go the other way if Turkey chose to over-run all of Russia’s forces in Syria. They can’t be supported effectively if Turkey does not allow it and it seems doubtful Russia would make a nuclear response. Russia does not have many allies right now, so it is tough to predict how they would react if Turkey really punched them in the nose. Turkey and Russia have about the same population aged 15-30, but Russia needs to keep an eye on Ukraine, Poland, the Baltics, and the Far East. Russia sending 500,000 troops though the Caucasus and then fighting through the mountains in Turkey is not a credible threat. Putin wins if things stay small, but Erdogan has geography on his side if things escalate.]


The part about geography being on Erdogan’s side is very true. The easiest way of preventing Turkey from doing whatever it wants in Syria would be an attack across the Russian border with Turkey to force the Turks to divert their forces away from Syria. Problem is Article 5 of the NATO Charter, involving an allied response to attacks against a NATO member’s territory, would come into play. The Article 4 meeting might have been an attempt to gin up NATO support just in case the Russians decide to start bombing Turkish bases from facilities in Russia proper.

No invasion of Turkey by ground troops, but airstrikes from Russia, if the Turks move further into Syria, endangering the Russian air base. However, I seriously doubt the Russians want to start trading aircraft with the Turks, because they’re pretty expensive, but it could happen, if Erdogan ups the ante. The issue for Putin is that the Turkish air force is a lot more capable than what the Ukrainians and Georgians had, both equipment- and personnel-wise. NATO standards are fairly high, and Turkey is one of the better-armed NATO members.


17 posted on 02/28/2020 11:38:50 PM PST by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei
known as MANPADS

Probably some of the ones taken during the Libya raid where HRC and BHO murdered 4 Americans

18 posted on 02/29/2020 2:15:06 AM PST by eartick (Stupidity is expecting the government that broke itself to go out and fix itself. Texan for TEXIT!)
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To: eartick

Um, no? Turkey has plenty of MANPADS they bought over the counter from us and other NATO nations. In addition to their own indigenous production. They would have no need to scavenge them from Libya.

They’ve been handing out their own and NATO made MANPADS to their buddies in the area for a while now.


19 posted on 02/29/2020 2:55:10 AM PST by Spktyr (Overwhelmingly superior firepower and the willingness to use it is the only proven peace solution.)
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To: Spktyr
Um, no?

I am glad you know none of these reached Turkey.

I am not so convinced

20 posted on 02/29/2020 4:34:05 AM PST by eartick (Stupidity is expecting the government that broke itself to go out and fix itself. Texan for TEXIT!)
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