Posted on 02/27/2020 6:15:35 AM PST by Moonman62
No idea why I am double posting.
You can’t look at “total cases” because most of those are still sick, and some will die.
Even then, 2800 deaths over 82000 confirmed cases is closer to 3%.
When you post those sorts of statements, there's no reason to run numbers.
You do not believe this will be adequately contained and that every one will get it at least once. I think that's wildly pessimistic and basically concedes that no medical or public health measures can contain this. I disagree.
We'll see I guess.
You made an assertion writing something that the article did not state or imply.
You wrote “Japan covering up their cases bigly.”
Sorry if getting called out on embellishing is uncomfortable.
You have inadequate comprehension skills. When a Japanese woman is complaining that she and others can’t get tested, you need to be able to draw a conclusion.
Don’t respond. I hate debating with dummies.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=skGhdh8t8i4&t=113s
Watch 0:11 to 0.39. You might don’t understand the language but the guy reporting from near the property inhabited by the Apple general laborers in Shenzhen. The presence of multiple cars with alien license plates indicates that the government encourages migrant workers to get back to work. It seems like true because interstate travel was prohibited before. He also produces a lot propaganda citing the Chinese media by contacts do not confirm. According to this guy China reports that both vaccine and medicine already exist and there is nothing to care about.
Hmmm... When they start testing, do you think they will be accumulating a record of everyone’s DNA?
Thanks. I don’t speak Russian, but I am in HK and deal with Chinese suppliers everyday. It’s almost business as usual. China is more scared of this crashing their economy than anything.
I’m sure Tim Cooke is screaming at Foxconn to keep assembling phones, because he was smarter than Trump, when Trump warned against supply line concentration risk.
Being gay is more important than being right for that creep.
The formula for a Confirmed Fatality Rate is not calculated that way.
The general way to do it is:
Deaths/(Deaths+Recovered.)
Right now the reason why this is probably an incorrect assessment is the numbers from China are crap. The second is that the virus has not been tracked outside of China for a matter of weeks.
Usually, this calculation is done AFTER the fact.
Other concerns are that MOST people with the virus NEVER get counted. As an example, in the US the influenza rate in 2018-2019 was 35.5 Million. Or EXACTLY 10% of the population. Sound fishy? The reason is you simply do not know. Its not dramatic. Its just the way it is.
I am NOT saying this isn’t ending up at 2.5% or whatever. I am just saying at this point the numbers are garbage in.
What everyone MUST remember is that it is contagious, but it does not appear to be “lethal” to a VAST majority of people.
The danger in this is NOT dying. It is overwhelming the system and hurting the economy.
You do NOT want to have to go to the hospital when this stuff is going on. If you are thinking about starting your hang gliding career over the next few months, you might want to put it off until summer.
That's a far cry from what you wrote initially.
Don’t respond. I hate debating with dummies.
It's an open thread and there's no personal attacks (at least by me). But you've been called on inaccurate posting. Please be mindful of that in the future. Thanks,
Change my mind.
It spreads like flu.
It has asymptomatic contagious period of days.
International travel means it can easily be dropped into a new high-density population.
R0 is high enough that it can easily overcome containment; one missed case easily sees exponential growth.
We have practically no detection kits.
I’m not seeing any reason to believe it will “burn out”.
I’m happy to incorporate any limiting factors you can sensibly present.
I want to see this contained & eliminated (fearing my parents won’t survive it).
Just saying “I disagree” doesn’t help. Give me some objective reason to believe it won’t be as bad as I’m computing it.
Interesting point. What about a virus that seems to kill people over 60 in a country with the oldest population on Earth?
I think it is clinically way too early to tell. Much of the issue is contagion in the area. China and cruise ships are on top of each other.
The US is not. Italy is not. People get pretty close in mosques.
Hygiene is a HUGE factor. Personal space and hand washing is a HUGE factor.
Usually these numbers are not calculated in peer reviewed situations until AFTER the epidemic has ended.
I am not suggesting any of this information is disregarded—I am suggesting it should be looked at in context to how this stuff is done in other epidemics.
When presented with facts you keep asking for more, never admitting you are wrong. Keep moving the goal posts. Go watch Columbo or something.
When presented with facts you keep asking for more, never admitting you are wrong. Keep moving the goal posts. Go watch Columbo or something.
I guess we are at loggerheads. I believe that good public health health protocols for dealing with COVID-19 will work and these protocols sill evolve. That includes self-quarantine. You don't believe those will help.
You predict that *everyone* will be infected.
We'll see. Care to make a wager to, payable to FR on if you are wrong I am wrong?
Yes. You are correct.
The issue is not death.
The concern I have been expressing is this:
1. More than a 99% chance you are not going to get seriously ill from this.
2. This will spread fast and any place of “gathering” will be shut down. This means all sorts of transport and commere will be shut down.
3. That shut down and supply chain disruption will impact Q2 and Q3.
The preparation you should be doing is to account for THAT—not masks or meds or anything related to “dying.”
A little extra food in the closet never hurts.
Agree. Also, comparing this to the flu or the cold is ridiculous. Those numbers are based on decades of data across a sample of billions.
Never liked that show much. The Andy Griffith Show - now that's a great show!
Re: 77 - great post. Wish more people would heed.
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