Posted on 02/27/2020 6:15:35 AM PST by Moonman62
This even, whether it turns out to be as dire as predicted or not, is a significant event along the lines of 9/11.
Trump had already warned of concentration risk of doing business with China and the tariffs were scaring people into diversifying supply chain.
This virus has sped this up a decade. China will never recover from this and Trump’s anti globalist message is vindicated.
I think that’s why he wanted USMCA so badly. Next term he goes after the cartels with our military. Which is a far better cause than some shitholes in the ME. This stabilizes Mexico.
Mexico becomes a destination for assembling products. We have free trade with Mexico. Mexico becomes prosperous, illegals self deport. Drugs stop coming over the border.
In the words of the Great Ronald Reagan on the Soviets: We win. They lose.
That’s China’s future.
This even, whether it turns out to be as dire as predicted or not, is a significant event along the lines of 9/11.
Trump had already warned of concentration risk of doing business with China and the tariffs were scaring people into diversifying supply chain.
This virus has sped this up a decade. China will never recover from this and Trump’s anti globalist message is vindicated.
I think that’s why he wanted USMCA so badly. Next term he goes after the cartels with our military. Which is a far better cause than some shitholes in the ME. This stabilizes Mexico.
Mexico becomes a destination for assembling products. We have free trade with Mexico. Mexico becomes prosperous, illegals self deport. Drugs stop coming over the border.
In the words of the Great Ronald Reagan on the Soviets: We win. They lose.
That’s China’s future.
How about the hypothesis that a majority of the infected persons think they have a cold or the flu and don’t even know that they have the corona virus and recover just fine?
...
That can happen.
If an outbreak isn’t too large I think most infected people can be found by contact tracing. Singapore just found two recovered people who were key transmitters in their outbreak. They used a new antibody test that can be used on people who have already recovered from the virus.
Thanks for the tip. My wife has tons of supplements for everything. I’m sure there is D3 in there.
I remember being in college years ago. Said to my roommate that I didn’t feel well, so I was going to the health center. Wore a denim jacket. It was about 30 degrees and pouring raining.
Walked into the health center soaking wet and said “I think I have a fever”. Nurse took my temperature and next thing I knew I was in some crazy room and they were icing me down.
Apparently I had a 104.5 fever and they took blood and my white blood cell count was off the charts. Felt like a 100 bucks the next day. They couldn’t understand what I had and why I reacted so harshly.
They said I shouldn’t have been coherent, able to walk the quarter mile from my fraternity house. Instead I was lucid and embarrassed that I was bothering them. Haha!
“China will never recover from this and Trump’s anti globalist message is vindicated.”
Hence Democrats’ flinging of histrionics at Trump re corona.
Expect Progressives to get REALLY hysterical (as though their current baseline is “normal”) as nationalism kicks into the next gear.
People get a cold with a little aches, pains and a fever and immediately self diagnose it as the flu. Makes you feel tougher and gets more sympathy.
Actual is .01? Where do you get that from?
The real fatality rate is currently around 9%, assuming China’s numbers are close to accurate, which I highly doubt they are. Probably closer to 20-25%.
Re: You can’t look at “total cases” because most of those are still sick, and some will die.
You need to explain that to the CDC - not to me.
The CDC is counting “total case” death rates because that is the only hard data point they have to work with at the moment.
In China, the “Case Fatality Rate” (CFR) has been quite steady at 2% to 3.5%.
98% of total deaths have been inside China.
In the USA and Canada - six weeks after corona went international - our CFR is still zero.
Obviously, the “Recovered” rate is very important.
But, with a novel virus, standards for “Recovered” can be highly subjective, and there is no way to know if “Recovered” cases are being reported in a timely fashion.
Corona virus went international more than six weeks ago.
There are 210 confirmed cases in the USA, Canada, northern Europe, Australia, and New Zealand.
So far, just two fatalities - both of them in France.
Only people with obvious symptoms are being tested in those countries.
It is very hard to believe that 9% of those 210 confirmed cases are going to die in the next few weeks.
I keep seeing people grossly overstating flu mortality (has there been any flu that significantly exceeded 0.1% in the past 50 years?), and grossly understating COVID-19 mortality, which appears to be near 2% at best, and possibly over 5% depending if you include the many unresolved cases as survivors or ignore them until they “resolve”.
Obviously, better care, new treatments, etc could change everything. Singapore seems to be the gold standard right now, but not enough cases to be statistically significant.
Re: “Has there been any flu that significantly exceeded 0.1% in the past 50 years?”
In the USA, the mortality rate for an “average” flu season is 0.2%.
The CDC uses statistical models to estimate the final mortality, so the margin of error is probably significant.
In the 1918-20 Spanish Flu epidemic - in the USA - the mortality rate was 2.5%.
The great killer was the “infection rate” - which was 30%.
I see a couple that reach 0.17%, but not 0.2%, and most are lower, as is the average obviously. Still, that is above 0.1. Most other models I have seen, put the US Flu/Pneumonia mortality at 0.1% and below.
The CDC also estimates over 15% are hospitalized. That number also seems high to me. But they obviously know more than I do...
meh
When you have thousands of USA doctors making judgment calls about the cause of death for elderly patients with multiple health issues, it is probably impossible to reach a consensus around a “final flu number.”
New topic...
I just saw something on the Johns Hopkins corona website that rattled me a little.
South Korea has about one half of the international corona cases - 2,022. Their CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is 0.65% (13 dead).
Italy has 655 cases and 17 dead, for a CFR of 2.6%.
Italy's CFR is FOUR times higher than South Korea.
I wonder if South Korea is fudging its numbers?
And why does Italy have such huge numbers?
Muslim immigrants? Mediterranean cruise ships?
It’s hard to make sense of some of the numbers. Italy’s number grew quickly, along with deaths, making me think many of the cases were infected for quite some time before they knew there was a problem. Iran is even worse. SK’s cases also spiked about the same time, but they are aggressively following up on known contacts within very specific groups. There just isn’t consistency between countries testing/screening where numbers are easily comparable.
Scary.
The extensive ‘drive thru’ testing in SK is picking up all cases, not just those sick enough to go to a hospital/doctor and their immediate contacts.
SK is the one to watch. Their system will pick up the mild case rate more effectively than any other nation at this point.
The extensive ‘drive thru’ testing in SK is picking up all cases, not just those sick enough to go to a hospital/doctor and their immediate contacts.
SK is the one to watch. Their system will pick up the mild case rate more effectively than any other nation at this point.
Thanks for the helpful update.
Every country seems to have its own distinctive story to tell.
I have tried to focus on the numbers, but its not possible to verify them, or even to know if different countries are using different tests and different medical standards.
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