Posted on 02/25/2020 7:31:04 AM PST by Kaslin
Sen. Bernie Sanders's rise, his supporters, and the national mood he is running in mirror the president's circumstances four years ago, and the primary is an early tell.
Bernie Sanders has the lead in the Democratic primary and, while far from over, his supporters’ enthusiasm greatly outpaces any of the rival campaigns and he is poised to continue winning contests and delegates. Party leaders and a good deal of their supporters in the media are in a full panic, struggling to derail the socialist insurgent’s campaign before he leads the party to what they predict is electoral ruin and four more years of President Donald Trump.
Republicans, including the president, seem to believe much the same and are cheering Sanders on against the media and Democratic leadership. In The Bernie vs. The Rest primary battle, a good number of GOP politicos see a win in Democratic corruption, cannibalism, and potentially party civil war. In the title match, they predict a win-win — running against a battered and weakened moderate or an easily dispatched and radical socialist.
There are both troubling political and economic reasons, however, that a win against Sanders is far from assured.
Politically, Sanders’s rise, his supporters, and the national mood he is running in mirror the president’s circumstances four years ago, and the primary is an early tell. In 2016, the anointed candidate of the GOP and its top donors quickly faltered, failing to generate crowds or gain leverage beyond early name recognition. On the debate stage, he appeared weak and out of touch in the face of harsh attacks.
With Jeb Bush’s campaign stumbling, professional Republicans scrambled to find a replacement in Marco Rubio or even Ted Cruz, a candidate many of them despised from previous Washington battles. In the end, the anti-Trump Republican vote fractured among several candidates, none of whom were strong enough to take on the front-runner, who only continued to gain speed. It’s true, former Vice President Joe Biden is going to win more delegates than Jeb! ever won and he might even find himself a king-maker at the convention, but there is a very good chance their political fortunes will be the same.
Among supporters, there’s a ring to “I am Bernie Sanders” that “I am not Bernie Sanders” lacks. The former fills young and old voters alike with feverish excitement, while the latter is an uninspiring reflection — yet Sanders’ primary opponents cling to it like some triumphant standard. The difference between charisma and supporters has been visible since weeks before the Iowa caucuses, with Sanders packing rallies while “front-runner” Biden and others struggled to gather interested locals.
Even today, with larger and larger crowds gathering for most of the candidates, Bernie’s crowds easily eclipse the competition. His supporters aren’t looking for an alternative to a candidate, they’re looking for an alternative to the status quo, and they’re highly motivated by this. If they feel their candidate has been screwed by the party, you can be sure they won’t be turning out to vote Democrat.
Donald Trump took advantage of a similar national mood, where voters feel left behind and taken advantage of by an elite that doesn’t share their lives or concerns. The feeling is justified, and while the president has delivered a booming economy and a thundering voice against Washington elites, the national anger and resentment that propelled him to office remains strong.
These are the same feelings palpable among Sanders’ devoted supporters, and they are as much a danger to his Democratic opponents as to his potential general election opponent. This, confident Republicans should know, will be doubly true if there is a recession — a Democratic prophecy that Sanders’s rise might well fulfill.
The U.S. economy beat out the dot-com bubble’s infamous record in July, “marking the longest economic expansion in American history.” The past few years have been powered by deregulation, tax cuts and a Federal Reserve that continues to pump money into the system — and as with all economies, the ghost of recession lies over every hill. Sanders just might be that ghost.
As the senator continues his march toward the nomination, stock-market investors will give him a higher and higher chance of winning the presidency. Stocks are largely a confidence game, and this is not good for that confidence. Investors in the many industries Sanders has targeted, including tech, health care, energy, banking, pharmaceuticals and more, will have real reason to be nervous. All it takes is people to start to hedge and hedge, then hedge some more; and following Sanders’ sizable weekend win, some market analysts are seeing just that.
A 5.3 percent drop in the markets between now and the fall is broadly regarded as a recession — just in time for the election. Combine the ghost of Sanders with the growing likelihood of a global pandemic, and incoming economic pain seems near certain — and very possibly far worse than 5.3 percent. This, you can be certain, is terrible news for a divisive incumbent president up for reelection.
The percentage of Americans who think our country is heading in the right direction bodes well for Trump. And yes, a Chinese-generated crisis combined with an abrupt end to Asian supply chains plays decently to the president’s hawkish stance and warnings toward Beijing. But a fiery and transformational opponent in the midst of economic downturn poses a very real threat to Republican victory. They’d best take notice.
If Bernie wins, this country will prove HL Mencken’s statement: “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
“But a fiery and transformational opponent in the midst of economic downturn poses a very real threat to Republican victory. They’d best take notice.”
LOL, sure “if” this or that happens Sanders will win.
So here is the next question for the genius author. What are we supposed to do about all these “ifs”? Everything I’ve seen tells me Republicans are plenty motivated and after all is said and done it will all come down to voter turnout.
Doesn’t it always?
Bernie and all Democrats are Chicom Manchurian candidates. National security knows and is going to put an ignominious end to this BS. Get ready for a rough ride folks.
I would agree, don’t be overconfident. Remember, some “experts” thought Mrs. Bill Clinton might win all 50 states.
I was one of those that thought the Kenyan could not win.
And he won twice.
On voter turnout. I think the Democrats have a sad situation either way:
Scenario #1: Stab Bernie in the back (again). Get Biden or Bloomberg or Someone as the nominee. Watch turnout plummet as the Bernie supporters stay home in disgust.
Scenario #2: Let Bernie the Socialist get the nomination. Watch turnout plummet as many non-crazy Democrats stay home — they won’t necessarily vote for Trump but they may not want to vote for a Socialist who wants to spend $60T of their money.
“Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.”
― H.L. Mencken, Prejudices: First Series
A lot of folks predicted there was no way PDJT could win either. No laurel resting. Vote early and vote often. :-)
Fox just announced that the latest Quinnipiac poll had Comrade Bernie beating The President 48% - 44% in Pennsylvania.
Bernie’s road to the White House however has many possible roadblocks. First many in the Democratic establishment will work hard to derail him getting the nomination including backroom deals like those that gave Hillary the nomination. Second even if Bernie succeeds in getting the nomination the Democrat establishment will likely not give him wholehearted support and may distance themselves from Bernie to preserve House and Senate seats. The big question is whether Bernie’s loony policies will resonate with anyone other than the far left. Bernie may also not enjoy the same media adoration lavished on Hillary
In a match up with Bernie, Trump will unleash a torrent of negative ads including clips showing Bernie praising Castro, saying breadlines were not so bad etc. Any scrutiny of the cost of Bernie’s proposals and the taxes needed to support them should scare the heck out of all but the most hardened leftists. His Green New Deal proposals will cost him any energy producing states and the votes of labor unions.
Could Bernie win the WhiteHouse? ...anything is possible in politics. However I think the odds of Bernie winning against Trump are very small.
He may be looking good primary wise and delegate wise but the voter numbers tell a different story. He’s far behind what he was in 2016 and Trump is ahead of here he was in 2016.
What you didn’t know was that the GOP was going to put up willing Designated Losers who had no intention of winning.
Here we go with the doom and gloom articles.
Obama open mic slip: 'After my election I have more flexibility’ (1:04 min.)
Obama's Magic Wand (1:09 min.)
Remember in November!
MAGA, now KAGA! (Keep America Great Always!)
Supporting PDJT with a new patriot Congress that will promise to fully support his already excellent work for MAGA will effectively give fast-working PDJT a third term in office imo.
I think President Trump would have to drop out for that to happen.
One tiny little difference, Trump is not a socialist, Bernie is.
And Hillary is our current President.
That includes the 105% turnout in Philly and Pittsburg, I assume.
Is that yet another D+11 poll?
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