Posted on 02/24/2020 1:10:49 PM PST by 11th_VA
Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain
(big snip)
The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”
…Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses...
(Excerpt) Read more at theatlantic.com ...
I think there is a 4th category - or maybe a 5th, since someone made “what the heck is going on?” a 4th category.
#5 I would call the “PDS” group. That is short for “Particularly Dangerous Situation”, a term the National Weather Service uses for, typically, a predicted widespread hazardous weather event. (Notably, every one of these I recall has turned out to be a rough ride.) When a PDS is predicted, I don’t panic OR “blow it off” OR “accept it peacefully”: Instead, I go into a heightened state of awareness (almost like a slight adrenaline surge), monitor weather information resources closely, and briskly but not frantically make preparations as seem prudent (this is a few hours out, typically.) If the tornado siren goes off or a warning is posted, it’s to the basement we go, but, still not in a panic. I think there are a few such types here...
Huh? Have you ever been with someone dying or nearly dying of pneumonia?
I’d rather be fried by ISIS like that poor Jordanian pilot of a few years back...
Mortality rates outside China are about 0.7%...
So far the primary evidence has been from countries with lousy healthcare. I’m not worried. We tend to know how to prevent and treat secondary infections.
Your PDA group, You just described most preppers and a good number of former military officer types who understand the OODA loop when it comes to a plan for adversity. Panic never enters into the mind of a disciplined and prepared leader. First you observe, gathering intel and relevant information about the mission or hazard at hand. Second is to orientate, all scenarios are looked at here including the worst case and best worst case, risk reward calculus is used at this stage. Then the PACE system is used to allocate resources for the plan. Third is to decide, the plan is fully formed and setup for purposeful and decisive action. A course of action is decided, resources are allocated and acquired as needed. A key point of the decide phase is a trigger or mission start is agreed on prior to the hazard presenting itself or go for mission call comes. The predetermined trigger is no longer negotiable after the decision is made. Once this trigger is reached the last step Action, the plan is instituted without hesitation and without additional debate its GO TIME. The plan is executed until it is completed or conditions warrant a new OODA loop to be implemented. No where in this process is room for emotions and it completely squashes normalcy bias every time. The military plans like this preppers should too.
One confirmed case of COVID19 in the wild under 100 miles from my front door triggers immediate action it’s that simple and that definitive. That’s the trigger its no longer negotiable.
Plus China is not reporting new cases. As the virus spreads eastward though Afghanistan and then to the rest of the middle east (with very little medical infrastructure in some of those regions), maybe we are past the point of pretending we can contain it.
In a month from now this won’t even be in the news cycle anymore.
According to this article China is reporting new cases.
Because the average time to death is quicker and reported sooner than the average time to recovery. Early in the outbreak this difference is significant in calculating death rates. With time, it is not. Arithmetic is proof. Once the outbreak is over, the number of cases should equal dead + recovered.
I am never without NAC. it is a staple.
I had a bottle of it sitting on the counter. My husband glanced at it and asked why I had a bottle of NAG.
I take 1200mg am and pm.
If anyone has copd NAC is a must.
A lot of people don’t realize the benefits of NAC and most never heard of it. Amongst others it seems to be very beneficial for people with COPD.
I simply don’t know the answer to your question.
Dr. Li & I went to college together at Tulane. I’ll email her & perhaps she’ll answer your question.
Yours, TMN78247
Arithmetic, dividing deaths by recoveries, proves nothing. If you show that the deaths/recoveries number is approaching an asymptote, that would be strong evidence (proof is not a scientific concept). But I have not seen an asymptote yet, deaths/recoveries keeps dropping, although at a slower rate.
The formating is a bit messy, but it is the best I can do.
|
|
Total Confirmed |
Total Recovered |
Total Deaths |
Rate (D/C) |
Rate (D/(D+R) |
|
1/22/20 |
555 |
28 |
17 |
3.06% |
37.78% |
|
1/23/20 |
653 |
30 |
18 |
2.76% |
37.50% |
|
1/24/20 |
941 |
36 |
26 |
2.76% |
41.94% |
|
1/25/20 |
1434 |
39 |
42 |
2.93% |
51.85% |
|
1/26/20 |
2118 |
52 |
56 |
2.64% |
51.85% |
|
1/27/20 |
2927 |
61 |
82 |
2.80% |
57.34% |
|
1/28/20 |
5578 |
107 |
131 |
2.35% |
55.04% |
|
1/29/20 |
6166 |
126 |
133 |
2.16% |
51.35% |
|
1/30/20 |
8234 |
143 |
171 |
2.08% |
54.46% |
|
1/31/20 |
9927 |
222 |
213 |
2.15% |
48.97% |
|
2/1/20 |
12038 |
284 |
259 |
2.15% |
47.70% |
|
2/2/20 |
16787 |
472 |
362 |
2.16% |
43.41% |
|
2/3/20 |
19881 |
623 |
426 |
2.14% |
40.61% |
|
2/4/20 |
23892 |
852 |
492 |
2.06% |
36.61% |
|
2/5/20 |
27636 |
1124 |
564 |
2.04% |
33.41% |
|
2/6/20 |
30818 |
1487 |
634 |
2.06% |
29.89% |
|
2/7/20 |
34392 |
2011 |
719 |
2.09% |
26.34% |
|
2/8/20 |
37121 |
2616 |
806 |
2.17% |
23.55% |
|
2/9/20 |
40151 |
3244 |
906 |
2.26% |
21.83% |
|
2/10/20 |
42763 |
3946 |
1013 |
2.37% |
20.43% |
|
2/11/20 |
44803 |
4683 |
1113 |
2.48% |
19.20% |
|
2/12/20 |
45222 |
5150 |
1118 |
2.47% |
17.84% |
|
2/13/20 |
60370 |
6295 |
1371 |
2.27% |
17.88% |
|
2/14/20 |
66887 |
8058 |
1523 |
2.28% |
15.90% |
|
2/15/20 |
69032 |
9395 |
1666 |
2.41% |
15.06% |
|
2/16/20 |
71226 |
10865 |
1770 |
2.49% |
14.01% |
|
2/17/20 |
73260 |
12583 |
1868 |
2.55% |
12.93% |
|
2/18/20 |
75138 |
14352 |
2007 |
2.67% |
12.27% |
|
2/19/20 |
75641 |
16121 |
2122 |
2.81% |
11.63% |
|
2/20/20 |
76199 |
18177 |
2247 |
2.95% |
11.00% |
|
2/21/20 |
76843 |
18890 |
2251 |
2.93% |
10.65% |
|
2/22/20 |
78599 |
22886 |
2458 |
3.13% |
9.70% |
|
2/23/20 |
78985 |
23394 |
2469 |
3.13% |
9.55% |
|
2/24/20 |
79570 |
25227 |
2629 |
3.30% |
9.44% |
It seems to me that your numbers do not take into account
those who are confirmed and are neither recovered or dead.
(those who still have it)
Perhaps I misunderstand your chart.
I tell people in copd groups, always surprised at the number of people that have never heard of it. I think it works better than Mucinix. Has many other uses. Only down side, it can cause water retention.
Hospitals also use it IV for Tylenol poisoning.
I got shingles right before I was going to have surgery. I upped my vitamin c to 1 gram every hour. My shingles were gone in a week with no after effects.
The numbers we get from China look pretty dubious. For new cases in Hubei Province, 2/10 2097, 2/11 1638, 2/12 18,840, 2/13 4,823, 2/14 2,420....
For 2/18 1,693. Since then the reports claim daily new cases in Hubei all below 1,000. That would be good newa if true.
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