Coronavirus is speeding up the decoupling of global economies

Financial Times ^ | February 23,2020 | RANA FOROOHAR

[Hojczyk]

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Coronavirus has put a spotlight on the economic decoupling of China and some developed countries. With factories shuttered and consumption stalled, multinational companies have been forced to shift production elsewhere. Apple has warned investors that its revenues will take a hit as a result of the outbreak. 

A gradual decoupling of global economies has been under way for a few years. The South Korean electronics group Samsung, for example, has been closing Chinese plants and opening others in Vietnam. Mexico has benefited from some US corporations moving their supply chains closer to home. But decoupling will undoubtedly speed up as Beijing’s opacity in handling the coronavirus epidemic highlights the risks of doing business in China.

There are marked similarities between the virus and decoupling itself. There is what you see on the surface (masks and panic or supply chain shifts and profit warnings) and then there is what you can’t know: how many victims the outbreak will claim or what the world will look like economically and politically in five to 10 years, as globalisation dissolves and divides deepen.

[Robert DeLong]

Dow, Nasdaq, & S&P all down over 3%

[steve8714]

Bloomberg made a lot of money off China.

[duckman]

Rat’s hoping for a crash, their wet dream come true

[null and void]

It's an ill wind that blows no good.

BTW, all of the sudden, the Johns Hopkins tracking site is broken.

Just sayin'...

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[Robert DeLong]

DOW - -3.29% - 28,037.29 - -955.12
Nasdaq - -3.49% - 9,243.01 - -334.33
S&P - -3.12% - 3,233.89 - -104.16

And no doubt they have changed since I typed in these numbers.

[JBW1949]

Listening to Rush...

He just said the recovery rate from this coronavirus is 98%...

He says it is more like the common cold...And is being over hyped...

It is still dangerous, he says, but not quite what is being sold by the media...

[pepsionice]

For at least two weeks, there’s been chatter of freighters which were supposed to be loaded and headed toward the US west coast (out of China)....which are sitting empty in various bays, and simply waiting.

In Germany or Italy, if you were going out to buy or procure masks...it’s almost too late. There’s been serious talk of drugs being on a limited delivery list and pharmacy problems expected by the end of March.

[CIB-173RDABN]

I was reading about all the cases showing up without there seeming to be a contact person, a carrier.

I had a wild thought, what if the virus is being spread by manufactured goods made in China and being shipped around the world.

I was surprised on just how much crap China makes and just how much they trade with the world. IF (tin hat time) the virus is living on products and packages and being spread that way, it will mean a end of China as we know it.

All trade with China will end.

[Clutch Martin]

So are the numbers being reported low?

Because if there’s 9 billion people on this planet the amount of people who have passed away so far from this virus is miniscule. A far greater percentage of people have gotten over the virus than have succumbed to it.

This is where I have to say to myself, in times like these there will always be times like these and that yes the Earth is round and yes we did go to the Moon.

[Erik Latranyi]

Rush is wrong.

Coronavirus is far more dangerous than a cold or flu.

A Surgical mask will not stop becoming infected.

It seems that poor containment by other nations means many more months of this to come.

[DarthVader]

Not necessarily as there are other political factors involved.

[balch3]

*He just said the recovery rate from this coronavirus is 98%...

This is true

*He says it is more like the common cold.

It’s quite a bit more serious than the common cold. 15-20% will need medical treatment, including hospitalization. If half the country gets infected, that would mean millions needing medical care, which would overwhelm our health system or any other country’s health system.

*And is being over hyped.

If anything, it’s being underhyped by the MSM.

I’m surprised at Rush’s take on this. With his health situation, he’s in the cohort that would be heavily impacted.

[Karma_Sherab]

the Earth is round and

This guy didn't think so!

[11th_VA]

He just said the recovery rate from this coronavirus is 98%...

The latest figures from Korea and Iran, suggest the virus may have evolved to a more virulent type - this could now be a 10 percent killer ...

[mikey_hates_everything]

I like Rush but I’m sorry, if you have 100,000 infected, 4000 recovered and 2000 dead, you have a 67% recovery rate and a 33% death rate, not 98% recovery or 2% death.

[DEPcom]

Wonder where Rush is getting his info?

I think what happens in South Korea will be better data then China. If the number of infected shoots through the roof quickly like China then we have a problem Houston.

Hopefully Rush is right.

I still wonder how fast it spread in that Church. Was it from one services or multiply services over weeks? Was it a communion service?

[ClearCase_guy]

I was reading about all the cases showing up without there seeming to be a contact person, a carrier.

I had a wild thought, what if the virus is being spread by manufactured goods made in China and being shipped around the world.

I saw a report (probably a crazy Conspiracy Theory) that a very large amount of counterfeit US currency was found. It was all in $1 bills. Which is crazy. No one counterfeits $1 bills. But if you infect the currency and start spending it in US cities, the disease would go everywhere.

[taxcontrol]

Assumng a 2% fatality rate and a world population of 6 billion, the death toll would be 120 million world wide. A population of 300 million (US) would have a death toll of 6 million.

By comparison, the US 2017 - 2018 flu season was responsible for just under 80,000 deaths. Further, The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet’s population—and killed 675,000 Americans.

I suspect that 3rd world countries would be far harder hit and the developed world will quickly be able to produce a vaccine for their populations, minimizing the toll.

With 1.2 billion in Africa and likely a higher death rate, it is possible that the limit to the spread will be running out of people.

[Black Agnes]

It was a communion service and one of the ‘dispensers’ was infected but asymptomatic.