Italy’s novel coronavirus cases rise to 17 as cluster emerges (2 dead)

PBS ^ | 2-21-20

[nuconvert]

The number of people in Italy infected with the new virus from China more than quadrupled Friday due to an emerging cluster of cases in the country’s north that prompted officials to order schools, restaurants and businesses to close.

Many of the 14 new cases represented the first infections in Italy acquired through secondary contagion and brought the country’s total to 17. The cluster was located in a handful of tiny towns southeast of Milan in the Lombardy region, said Lombardy regional health chief Giulio Gallera.

“This was foreseeable even if we hoped it wouldn’t have happened,” Gallera said.

The first to fall ill was a 38-year-old Italian who met with someone who had returned from China on Jan. 21 without presenting any symptoms of the new virus, health authorities said. That person was being kept in isolation and appears to present antibodies to the virus.

The 38-year-old is now hospitalized in critical condition. His wife and a friend of his, who was a member of his running club, also tested positive for the virus. Three patients at the hospital in Codogno where he went with flu-like symptoms on Feb. 18 also have infections, as do five nurses and doctors.

In addition, another three elderly people, who frequented the same cafe as the runner’s father, also tested positive Friday, Gallera said.

Tests were under way, meanwhile, on the 38-year-old’s doctor, who made a house call on him, as well as on 120 people he worked with in the research and development branch of Unilever in Casalpusterlengo, Gallera said.

[exDemMom]

The first to fall ill was a 38-year-old Italian who met with someone who had returned from China on Jan. 21 without presenting any symptoms of the new virus, health authorities said.

Asymptomatic transmission: that is concerning. It is easy to avoid people who are coughing and sneezing, impossible to avoid people who appear healthy.

Also, I did not see mention of two dead in the article.

[oldasrocks]

Seems every case is traced to a traveler or seaman from china.

I think this translates into some people are Super Carriers that go into areas where people have no immunity to anything. Similar to US being affected by mumps etc from South American illegals.

We all gonna DIE!

[nuconvert]

“Also, I did not see mention of two dead in the article”

Multiple sources on internet. That’s why I added it. The article came out yesterday. Additional death report today

[Mount Athos]

two out of 17 would be an unusually high death rate

[null and void]

Just in case you were wondering if non-Chinese were immune...

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[null and void]

We all gonna DIE!

Yes.

Eventually.

Of something.

[AlaskaErik]

[bert]

They already met. Here's the outstanding 7 oz result

[nuconvert]

Yes it is a high rate. It just sprang up in the Lombardy region, so I’m sure we’ll hear of more cases shortly to lower the appearance of the rate.
The same type thing seems to be happening in Iran. Though with Iran it’s hard to tell how much the gov’t is just hiding.

[nuconvert]

Iran - 28th case, 5th death

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3818474/posts?page=40#40

[allendale]

There were thousands of people traveling via commercial air from Wusan from Dec 15 thru Jan 15 to multiple points in the United States. Many had to carrying the virus. Yet there have been no reported cluster outbreaks in the US.Could be that there are many cases that are being misdiagnosed as flu because the vast majority of hospitals and physicians do not have access to COVID 19 diagnostic kits. Another possibility is that there are at least three variants of coronavirus that most hospitals can reliably test. Have to at least wonder if these cluster cases in Iran and Italy are really a coronavirus infection other than COVID 19. If the CDC took specimens from these infected people and confirmed it was COVID 19, then this current pandemic in China is likely to become a worldwide epidemic with a significant number of people dying.

[Freedom56v2]

I keep wondering about airborn transmission in these hospitals...and before symptomatic...

[Mount Athos]

prior to this the death rate in stories i read seem to range between 1 and 2.5 percent. Just from memory and my reading.

[yldstrk]

Is it being strategically released?

[exDemMom]

I think this translates into some people are Super Carriers that go into areas where people have no immunity to anything. Similar to US being affected by mumps etc from South American illegals.

Technically, those people are super spreaders. The 38 year old index case was a super spreader, since he infected 18 other people.

We do, or should have immunity to mumps. I've had the disease as a child and the vaccine as an adult, I should be completely immune from it now. Since mumps vaccine is widely distributed, we are not ripe for a mumps epidemic.

The newly emerged diseases that no one has immunity to are the most concerning. I have not seen any data yet on whether there is cross-immunity between covid-19 and the corona viruses that cause ordinary colds. There are so many unknowns about this virus that it is difficult to determine what is really going on.

[exDemMom]

then this current pandemic in China is likely to become a worldwide epidemic with a significant number of people dying.

A note about terminology: an outbreak is confined to a local area, for example a county or a few counties. An epidemic is confined to a region or state. A pandemic involves several regions and can be worldwide. Therefore the covid-19 situation is at outbreak or epidemic status in China. It is not pandemic yet because the outbreaks in other countries have been contained (so far). If it starts to spread uncontrollably, it is a pandemic.

[nuconvert]

You’re right. I think what we’re seeing is people not being tested for the virus until they’re extremely ill & dying. Then all of a sudden, you get death rates higher than infection rates. Now that they know it’s there, they’ll start testing more people and using better methods of treatment & isolation. SO the case fatality rate should come down.
Having medical staff passing it on to patients before they realize that it’s already among them is really bad.

[nuconvert]

Seriously? paranoid much?

[nuconvert]

Iran has a Pasteur institute in Tehran, so let’s hope they are sharing their information with other Pasteur Institutes .