Coronavirus Live Thread Feb 9, 2020

Agenda free TV ^

[janetjanet998]

There are currently 40,221 confirmed cases worldwide, including 904fatalities.

[grey_whiskers]

There are currently 40,134 confirmed cases worldwide, including 904 fatalities.

Look, a steady ~2500 new cases and ~80-90 new deaths/day

[11th_VA]

Link didn’t work

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Oorang]

I saw that post as well. Considering the various youtubes out of China and other information leaking I would tend to believe the Doctor and the wife’s info. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Chinese “authorities” are posting comments such as what is on “Update 3” to sow disinformation “everyone stay calm, all is well”. But, what do I know.

[hardspunned]

After two full months of unimpeded travel to the US from China, how is it we have only 12 confirmed cases. The weeks long transmission period of those thousands of potentially infected Chinese occurred while they were here. I’m not trying to downplay caronavirus but did anyone suspect only 12 cases to date 3 weeks ago? I don’t believe the US government is fudging the statistics.

[Jane Long]

I’ve been wondering when the (possibly infected) food prep (fast/frozen/fresh) peeps would start ‘triggering’ safety concerns....there, here and EVERYWHERE.

[LilFarmer]

Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing

Two eye popping numbers from an insightful interview with Dr Neil Ferguson of @MRC_Outbreak on #coronavirus interview: 1) China cases are likely underestimated by maybe 10x (1:12 video). 2) Global cases outside China underestimated by maybe 4x.

https://youtu.be/ALQTdCYGISw

[Travis McGee]

Plague Pushes China To Breaking Point

Rod Dreher / Feb 8 / American Conservative

Dr. Li Wenliang, heroic doctor attacked by Chinese government for trying to tell truth about coronavirus. He died of it this week

Read this stunning comment left by “Wyoming Doc,” a physician in Wyoming (whose name I know) whose wife is an immigrant from China:

Has been a while since I last wrote anything. I have had the flu and have been home with my wife for the past several days. It has been fascinating. Our satellite TV provider has a service wherein you can subscribe to the People’s Republic official TV station.

There have now been four occasions where I have witnessed on live Chinese national TV public officials being frog-marched out of press conferences in hand irons. Their crimes? One had his mask on upside down. One did not have a mask on at all. One was stating (translated by my wife) that he had repeatedly been telling Beijing about the problems for weeks – and there was no response. One was answering every question with obvious double-speak (not unlike listening to Nancy Pelosi or Ted Cruz). Shortly into the press conferences, young men from the PLA show up – slapped on the hand irons – and hauled them out and in all 4 cases – it was just stunned silence in the rooms. My wife just casually tells me – “no one will ever see them again.”

It is also clear to me as a physician – listening to the Chinese doctors – and viewing footage from the hospitals and clinics – that this is many orders of magnitude worse than what they are saying. Common sense will tell you that as well – are they really going to torpedo their entire industrial heartland for months – just because 300 people have died? — I think not – I think this is way worse than we can possibly imagine.
{REST AT LINK}
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/the-plague-pushes-china-to-breaking-point-coronavirus/

[datura]

My in- laws and WeChat groups verify the doctors article.

The Epoch Times has also done some excellent journalism inside China, corroborating that the official numbers are very low.

[winoneforthegipper]

Very true ...and graphically pungent.

[Vermont Lt]

Ok. What I did was take the deaths and divide by the serious/critical cases from a few days ago. The assumption is that deaths are a “lagging” indicator. If you look at the critical cases going through the system, how many will be dead soon.

I think we both agree the numbers are junk. The cases outside of China are still almost a month behind on the timeline.

Time will tell.

[Vermont Lt]

Every third or fourth comment on twitter indicates “all is well.”

It sounds like crap. But who knows. I guess it’s good to keep balance.

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[donozark]

In Hungary they busted a couple of low lines for putting up false websites claiming people in the country were dying of Coronavirus. Not so. At least not yet...

[nuconvert]

Reminder:

“The 2017-2018 flu season was severe for all populations and resulted in an estimated 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths. This is the highest number of patient claims since the 2009 flu season. 186 pediatric deaths were reported to the CDC”

[Uncle Sham]

"After two full months of unimpeded travel to the US from China, how is it we have only 12 confirmed cases."

One thing that should be tallied is "who" is getting infected. Is is primarily those of Chinese or Asian descent? Are they more likely to catch the illness than those who are from European descent? Is there a race factor?

[datura]

As of yesterday it was reported that 10 million workers had departed Beijing for New Years, and only 2 million had returned to begin work.

If true, the supply chain outbound is broken. Oil refineries have shutdown, LNG terminals closed. Shipyards and defense manufacturing has ceased.

In a nation where 30,000 die every day in god times, they aren’t going to shut down for these numbers.

[grey_whiskers]

So I guess it’s possibly more than the flu.

Or maybe all the workers from Beijing read this thread and got too scared to go to work, eh?

[LilFarmer]

Several possibilities:

No more cases in the US, unlikely.

Health departments are choosing or told not to publicize the numbers

Local health departments just got the kits to be able to test. CDC had a backlog of a week or more.

There could be some more positives among the suspected cases who have not tested positive yet, because the test has 30-50% positive rate (https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/828326-how-is-the-false-negative-of-new-coronary-pneumonia-caused#post828326)

The govt is holding back numbers until they can get hospitals prepared. However, if I were in charge of planning at a hospital, I’d be already doing this.

And, the lag time. A person can be asymptomatic for 2-3 weeks. The first case in the US was not even identified until 1/31, 9 days ago.

[Vermont Lt]

If you look at the chart someone posted above, the US and west are about two inches to the left of the margin.

We are way behind on the timeline. Which good because we can try to stop it from breaking out.

[LilFarmer]

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3815068/posts

Report: Wuhan Province Cremating Hundreds per Day While China Reports Dozens of Virus Deaths
Breitbart ^ | 7 Feb 2020 | Francis Martel
Posted on 2/9/2020, 5:44:44 PM by SoConPubbie

A shocking report published Saturday local time by the Epoch Times revealed that crematoriums in China are struggling to keep up with the hundreds of bodies they are receiving, suggesting Beijing is undercounting the number of coronavirus deaths in the country