Earlier this week James Carville went on MSNBC and told Democrats it was time to panic. I mean, Im 75 years old why am I here doing this? Because I am scared to death thats why, Carville said. The clip of Carvilles on-air panic went viral and today, Vox interviewed Carville and gave him a chance to revise and extend his remarks:
Sean Illing
Why are you scared to death about the 2020 election?James Carville
Look, the turnout in the Iowa caucus was below what we expected, what we wanted. Trumps approval rating is probably as high as its been. This is very bad. And now it appears the party cant even count votes. What the hell am I supposed to think?We have candidates on the debate stage talking about open borders and decriminalizing illegal immigration. Theyre talking about doing away with nuclear energy and fracking. Youve got Bernie Sanders talking about letting criminals and terrorists vote from jail cells. It doesnt matter what you think about any of that, or if there are good arguments talking about that is not how you win a national election. Its not how you become a majoritarian party
Im not sure Carville is personally that far off from Bernies positions on these issues, but he knows that winning an election means focusing on issues where you have an electoral advantage, not ones where the electorate is against you. The counter-argument, which Voxs Sean Illing makes, is that maybe things have changed so much that Sanders can win despite his far-left platform.
Sean Illing
A lot of threads there. First, a lot of people dont trust the Democratic Party, dont believe in the party, for reasons youve already mentioned, and so they just dont care about that. They want change. And I guess the other thing Id say is, 2016 scrambled our understanding of whats possible in American politics.Are we really sure Sanders cant win?
James Carville
Who the hell knows? But heres what I do know: Sanders might get 280 electoral votes and win the presidency and maybe we keep the House. But theres no chance in hell well ever win the Senate with Sanders at the top of the party defining it for the public. Eighteen percent of the country elects more than half of our senators. Thats the deal, fair or not.So long as McConnell runs the Senate, its game over. Theres no chance well change the courts and nothing will happen, and hell just be sitting up there screaming in the microphone about the revolution.
As another example of a losing issue, Carville brought up a viral video in which a voter confronted Elizabeth Warren over her college debt forgiveness plan:
Heres another stupid thing: Democrats talking about free college tuition or debt forgiveness. Im not here to debate the idea. What I can tell you is that people all over this country worked their way through school, sent their kids to school, paid off student loans. They dont want to hear this shit. And you saw Warren confronted by an angry voter over this. Its just not a winning message.
The core of Carvilles message is that you have to always be thinking about the persuadable voters because ultimately every election is about persuading a majority of voters with your most appealing issues. As Carville sees it, theres no alternative: look, if no ones persuadable, then lets just have the revolution.
As for the outcome in 2020, Carville was asked if he sees anyone who can beat Trump and replied, I dont know, I just dont know.
Carville will be ignored by Sanders supporters, probably with a jaunty Ok, boomer. Hes old, hes out of touch, hes moderatelots of reasons to ignore him. But I think hes right about Sanders, at least so far.