Posted on 01/31/2020 10:33:43 AM PST by DannyTN
Video at link.
Thank you for the correction. !!
0.32 * 0.11 = 0.035
Death rat you postulate is ~3.5%
I don’t postulate anything. cdc says death rate in hospitalized patients 11-15%
“The protocol will need updating. “
Maybe for now.
But a complete overhaul may be needed.
At some point they will have to test anyone who comes down sick. Fever, sore throat and phlegm will be the new criteria. Anywhere in the country.
Because this bug is lose and in no way contained.
There’s a killer on the road...
Asymptomatic transmission is common in colds, flus, and stomach viruses. So this shouldn’t surprise anyone. Also, up to 5 days after colds and stomach bugs you can still transmit the germs.
Most sites say 1 day prior to symptoms for the flu. And it usually stops being contagious as the symptoms go away. There are exceptions. Kids tend to spread it longer afterwards. What they saw in Germany was worse than the typical flue or cold pattern.
"When Flu Spreads. People with flu are most contagious in the first three to four days after their illness begins. Most healthy adults may be able to infect others beginning 1 day before symptoms develop and up to 5 to 7 days after becoming sick." - CDC
"For colds, most individuals become contagious about a day before cold symptoms develop and remain contagious for about five to seven days. Some children may pass the flu viruses for longer than seven days (occasionally for two weeks)." - Medicinenet
a friend’s son married a Chinese girl and she went with her Chinese mom and her toddler son to CHina to visit relatives and are still there.....
I hope and pray they are staying well.
This thing broke at a bad time.
Well this is crazy if true
“A Mexican citizen who traveled to Wuhan came home and showed symptoms of coronavirus. He went to a public hospital. They were unable to help him and sent him home putting a much larger population at risk. Does Mexico have a strategy in place? #coronavirus.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/NathanielParish
(Retweeted from here https://mobile.twitter.com/El_Universal_Mx/status/1223289697625088001 )
That's fine. I'm pretty optimistic about technology. I know the virus needs to be cultured and then examined for certain markers, probably partly manual, time consuming, and expensive. But technology solves all problems sooner or later because capitalism requires solutions. If you don't have a solution, you don't get the money.
All too often the government will pervert capitalism and throw out money to people without solutions. I know this wasn't government but it's an instructive example. Here's 83.333k a month. You don't need to solve any problems for us although if pushed we'll pretend you are helping us get international business. But really, don't even mention you work for us, you hoe-chasing crackhead. Now go away.
But in the case of virus detection I think the necessary inventions are mostly done, and the government should just give out a $10m V-Prize for the first succesful virus detector, buildable for less than 10k, effectiveness measured with double blind testing. Probably get a successful prototype in a month.
Right. And 0.25 to 0.32 of cases go to the hospital. And only a certain percentage of cases in the hospital will get put into the ICU (assume 100% to as low as 50%). So you need to multiply 0.25 to 0.32 by 0.11 to 0.15 by 0.5 to 1.0 And you get 1.4% to 4.8% mortality. There might be more hidden cases in the community but we'll assume the low end of 0.25 is used to cover that condition.
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