Posted on 01/31/2020 6:20:46 AM PST by 11th_VA
… Friday, Jan. 31, noon
The death toll from China’s coronavirus outbreak has reached 213.
By the end of Thursday, China had confirmed 9,720 coronavirus cases, according to the latest data released by the country’s top health body (link in Chinese). That included 1,982 new cases added over the past 24 hours.
Coronavirus has now spread to every provincial-level region in China and to 19 countries overseas. Local person-to-person transmission has been recorded in four countries outside China.
According to figures from China’s National Health Commission, 171 patients have so far recovered from the virus, and more than 100,000 are under medical observation.
(Excerpt) Read more at caixinglobal.com ...
I don’t get it. What about all the people that left at the time this thing was starting.
There should be 100s or maybe thousands of cases in other countries.
they didn’t come out with the problem right away, China.
Unless the Chinese areas that were hit or poor and folks don’t do much jetsetting
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.
The Coronavirus has a long incubation period, so long, you could be a 'spreader' without even know you are sick. Instead of a 'mass shooter' it acts more like a 'sniper', taking out people here and there.
That's why you haven't seen Tens of Thousands of cases yet, it doesn't spread as quickly as the flu.
And one other thing. The first phase of the Spanish flu was less lethal. It wasn't until several months after its first appearance, that it reappeared, and had 'adapted' and morphed into a more lethal virus - that's what these buggers do - adapt, improvise, and overcome.
Almost 10000 cases, about 200 deaths. Help me with the math. 2%? For a lethal virus that is not very impressive. Ebola is tougher. In a country of 1.5 billion the rate of infection is miniscule. If I was Coronavirus I would be embarrassed.
Although I know Russia closed its border w/China, it seems strange that no cases have been reported there; given their proximity and we have cases here in the U.S./Canada.
I expect there are unreported cases in Africa since the Chinese are heavily invested there.
For a few days now various reports of “first person to person transmission” How many “first’s” will there be?
it’s getting a bit old already.
I'm pretty sure the Spanish Influenza was much the same - it wasn't until it became 'more lethal' after several months of adaptation that it really began to kill.
Also, like the Spanish Influenza, the death rates in various countries will be different - China has first world medical equipment and staff to handle this virus - let this thing spread to India or sub-Africa, and you could see substantially hirer death rates, or it could die out.
We're in the first quarter of the game, we don't know what's going to happen.
Ebola actually isn’t as good at spreading. Ebola requires contact with infectious materials, the flu and (likely) this coronavirus is airborne as well as contact.
That’s why they didn’t have to burn down the Dallas hospital that had the Ebola victim appear in it a few years ago.
Also, as others have pointed out, there’s a few points - it could (and likely already has) mutate into different strains, which many times are more dangerous. Second, we don’t know for sure about the death numbers as the Chinese are not to be trusted for such stats and there’s reports from China that the local authorities are cremating corpses so they don’t have to report the deaths.
Finally, the major mechanism of death *right now* for the afflicted is pneumonia. Which in actually how the normal flu virii commonly kill people as well - one difference is that a normal flu season will have about a 0.1% kill rate. This one has a literal order of magnitude higher kill rate.
Yup. For a lot of the people in Wuhan, they’re already infected, they’re contagious without symptoms (which is a major difference from most normal flus), and they probably don’t know it. We’ll know more in about a week when the next wave of infected start finally showing symptoms.
I think that the 2% death rate (and for that matter the number infected) isn’t accurate, for several reasons:
1) The Chinese lie - they knew about this for a month and said nothing to the rest of the world because they thought that they could contain it and didn’t want to lose face (which is a REALLY big deal in Asian cultures);
2) It takes a while for this virus (such as it is now) to become lethal. First you get it, then you get pneumonia, then you die (or recover). That’s the rub: you simply don’t know that someone has recovered until they do, and it takes a few weeks to find out. I would imagine that a lot of those infected (i.e. more than 2%) will not recover. What we need to do is to look at those known to be infected NOW, and see how many have died in 2 or 3 weeks to get a better idea of how lethal this disease really is.
3) There is that mutation factor, which right now is a complete wildcard. No one knows IF it will mutate and, if it does (which is likely), whether that mutation will make it more deadly or less (and with less would come easier transmission).
Oh, BTW, a 2% mortality rate is very high. The “normal” flu has about a 0.1% mortality rate, and when you understand that this disease is about twice as communicable as the flu, you are looking at 40 times the number of deaths. Last year about 30,000 people died of the flu in this country. Do the math on that one. This is not a joke, and not to be dismissed as a big nothing.
Another factor to consider is that IF (big word there) it infects tens of millions here, that this patient load will be on top of our existing patient load. IOW, our healthcare system will become over-burdened and unable to render top shelf treatment to everyone. There are only so many doctors and nurses, and so much medication, after all. Thus, even if this virus or the pneumonia it leads to don’t DIRECTLY kill you, its burden on our system might.
I don’t want to devalue the lives of those who have died or those who still may die. It is tragic that people have to die of viral diseases. There certainly is risk of transmission and there are people who are less or more susceptible to the effects of the disease so we should try to keep them safe by minimizing their risk of contracting the virus.
However! The excitement and anxiety are perfect for news networks seeking ad revenue by dangling teaser lines for information that will follow several minutes of important commercial messages. These messages are necessary to pay for the hairdressers and makeup artists who keep our economy moving so I guess it’s good.
Interestingly a lot of movies about dystopian futures begin with outbreaks of virulent diseases so much of the population is conditioned to be fearful that corona virus will ultimately lead to Walking Dead or The Stand. I have always loved a good dystopian future movie. Like Omega Man with Charleton Heston.
Besides we have had instances in history when people died in huge numbers like the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I don’t know of ver many other epidemic wipeouts but I’m sure they must have happened. But the Black Death was 500 years ago and they threw poop into the streets outside their houses and they had lots of rats. And the Spanish Flu traveled and mutated and probably people weren’t washing their hands as much.
I just don’t want to feed the narrative and I am going on record as saying that in six months nobody will be talking about how many hundreds of people died from the corona virus pandemic epidemic. It would be so easy to join the chorus of doom and gloom.
And another thing: there are a lot of words beings used like if, could, likely, possibly, may, might, imagine, think, believe, unknown, I could keep going. These words are used in multiples in the same sentence. It’s like saying if I buy enough lottery tickets and maybe pick the right numbers I could possibly win up to as much as potentially a million dollars or more.
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