Posted on 01/30/2020 2:38:04 PM PST by janetjanet998
There are currently 9,171 confirmed cases worldwide, including 213 fatalities.
Over the last few days research has emerged estimating the incubation period, speed of spread and most vulnerable groups. The most comprehensive paper, published in the New England Journal of Medicine by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing, suggests that the virus has a mean incubation period of 5.2 days.
Yep - very similar to “normal” Flu numbers..haven’t seen where any have dies outside China - only a handful of human-human transmissions outside China and the American case is husband/wife.
Has to skyrocket to get worldwide deaths anywhere near the 80K Americans who dies in the 2017-2018 Flu season...
0:19: 1 new case in Japan. (Source)
09:43: 5 new cases in Thailand. (Source)
09:33: First 2 cases in England. (Source)
Absolutely. I believe the long term exposure to less than ideal air quality has weakened respiratory systems in the region’s population as a whole. There is also a very high percentage of smokers in China as I recall.
I hope there is a Big Pharma company producing a bunch of test kits for the US. I don’t care if they expire unused.
I don’t know if you watched the video from a man in Wuhan, but one of the biggest problems they have are lack of test kits, and the ones they have they are using to test doctors.
The VIRUS news reports on MSM are so dull. Repeat headlines with no information.
Won’t be long before I turn the station when they talk about it. Entertainment Tonite will be all Corona, all the time
The next 96 hours: Superbowl, BernieIowa, SenateAcQuit. No more Kobe.
1) A snippet of an article suggesting Asian men are more susceptible as they have a greater % of lung cells which have the ACE2 binding site for the virus; up to 5x as many as some other ethnicities; and men overall have ~2x as many such as women.
2) China's lack of cleanliness (sanitation, personal space mores, air pollution) and affinity for things like bat soup.
3) China's relative lack of medical care (though actually not necessarily true of Wuhan)
4) Chicoms not known for honesty in reporting
5) Transmissibility without symptoms has been demonstrated.
6) 10 days to 2 weeks from infection to frank symptoms.
Note that other countries don't have the fatalities of China; but most haven't had people infected for long enough yet. At the same time, preliminary results from Thailand show 7 recovered out of 19 known infected.
We ought to know more in the rest of the world in about two weeks.
Do we take gigantic hits to the world economy for a maybe? Or do we hedge the bets but prepare to clamp down hard if we see either explosive growth or increasing fatalities outside of China?
13:27: 1 new case in Germany.
12:38: First 2 cases in Russia.
Recovered coronavirus patients still need to strengthen protection: doctor
Xinhua
20:56 UTC+8, 2020-01-31
New Coronavirus Outbreak
Cured patients are still at risk of reinfection with the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and should strengthen protection, a Chinese respiratory doctor said Friday.
“Usually, certain antibodies will be produced after a virus infection, which will have a protective effect on the human body. However, some antibodies may not last that long,” said Zhan Qingyuan, a doctor with the China-Japan Friendship Hospital, at the daily press conference held by the National Health Commission (NHC)”
https://www.shine.cn/news/nation/2001310991/
Good article, a rather informed “we don’t know”... :-)
Easier to read:
About outbreak of asymptomatic pathogen carrier associated with new coronavirus
Asymptomatic pathogen carriers are those who have no symptoms but have a positive PCR test
Yesterday (January 30), at 210: 45 yesterday at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, out of 210 Japanese nationals who returned to Japan on a charter flight from Wuhan City at 20:45, they were involved in a new coronavirus. Testing revealed that all 13 individuals were negative.
At around 10:00 today (January 31), the National Institute of Infectious Diseases reported results for the remaining 197 patients. Among them, there were two cases of infectious diseases related to the new coronavirus. Both cases are asymptomatic pathogen carriers.
These were Japanese who returned yesterday on a charter flight from Wuhan City, and a new coronavirus was detected as a result of a PCR test that performed a sample collection at the National Center for Global Health and Medicine. We will carry out proactive epidemiological investigations on this matter, including the identification of close contacts.
Outline
Third case holder of asymptomatic pathogen
(1) Age: 30s
(2) Gender: Male
(3) Place of residence: Under investigation
(4) Symptoms, progress:
January 30 : Returned to Japan at around 8:57. There were no symptoms, and the test was positive just in case.
(5) Action history:
According to his report, he has not stopped by the seafood market in Wuhan (South China Seafood Castle).
No clear contact with pneumonia patients has been identified in China.
4th case of asymptomatic pathogen carrier
(1) Age: 50s
(2) Gender: Male
(3) Place of residence: Under investigation
(4) Symptoms, progress: Jan.
30 : Returned at about 8:57. There were no symptoms, and the test was positive just in case.
(5) Action history:
According to his report, he has not stopped at the seafood market in Wuhan (South China Seafood Castle).
No clear contact with pneumonia patients has been identified in China.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Yeah, every time that graph looks like maybe there is a slowing in the progression of that curve, more data comes in and it resumes that steady upward march. The rate of increase, the “acceleration of the curve”, if you will, is weakening a bit, probably reflecting the Chinese’ efforts at containment, but that exponent IS still positive. Given that the cases seem to be resolving slowly (no surprise, IMO), how do the caregivers not get overwhelmed? They may be already, as reports seem to indicate.
If that curve doesn’t at least turn into a straight line (stop accelerating) in the next few days...
“Oh, Hell.”
(Capt. John Sheridan, in “The Fall Of Night”)
JANUARY 31, 2020 / 2:28 PM / UPDATED 12 MINUTES
“BERLIN (Reuters) - A new coronavirus that is spreading around the world has been confirmed in a child in Germany, the southern state of Bavaria said on Friday, bringing the total number of known cases in Germany to six.
The new case is a child of an employee at the same firm where four more individuals in the Munich area were infected, the state health ministry said in a statement.
JANUARY 31, 2020 / 2:28 PM / UPDATED 12 MINUTES
“BERLIN (Reuters) - A new coronavirus that is spreading around the world has been confirmed in a child in Germany, the southern state of Bavaria said on Friday, bringing the total number of known cases in Germany to six.
The new case is a child of an employee at the same firm where four more individuals in the Munich area were infected, the state health ministry said in a statement.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-germany-child/german-coronavirus-cases-climb-to-six-after-child-infected-ministry-idUSKBN1ZU1TT
6th confirmed case of deadly #coronavirus in #Germany.
It is for the first time in #Europe a child. The infected child is the son of one of the men infected with the #nCoV2019 virus from a Chinese colleague in Bavaria - NTV
Anyone remember this video I posted on January 1st...?
Wuhan flight, some people were suffering from infectious diseases. All people in the plane were forbidden to go out.
https://mobile.twitter.com/IsChinar/status/1223116887929716736
DELANEY IS OUT!! Sad.
He was the first one in.
He had literally zero supporters on DU.
Crazy. That’s the point quarantines should have been started if not earlier
Influenza killed about 80,000 people in the 2017-2018 season in the United States, according to figures released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It was a very high death toll, highest in decades.
80,000 \ 365 = 220 dying daily in the United States
There’s some perspective on things.
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