Posted the the forrest thread.......
To believe only 1300 cases...
This originated in a city of 13 MILLION
Are we to assume that the 40 or so who been diagnosed in other countries ran into those 1300 people...in the city of 13 MILLION?
HIGHLY improbable.
This alone hints that the number really infected in China is EXPONENTIALLY higher.
Ten times higher?
Fifty times...eighty?
I’m guessing the suggested real numbers of infected at 80-100x higher than currently reported more closely represents the odds of the 40 foreigners contacting an infected person in a region of 13 million.
Mortality rate had changed today from 2% to nearly 4%.
Expect the numbers of reported infected to rise exponentially.
There is no cure. No vaccine.
If caught only symptoms can be managed until the virus runs it’s course.
Let that sink in for all who have family members who are medically frail.
Chinese New Year celebrations.
Certainly wealthy travelers from US and other nations will return or alreadyy have done so out of concern.
This is NOT contained
The reports from China hospitals is grim. 24 hour shifts. No more hazmat clothes. No meds to give.
This is not contained
Sadly to little is known
Exact incubating time?
Days contagious?
Real number infected?
Actual fatalities?
Primary initial testing is for fever, but reports say some display no fever? If so, they can carry more easily.
Six days ago, 40 reported cases
Today 1300+
32% increase?
If that’s the rate, then in six days 42,000
But the prediction is 250,000 to 350,000 by February 4 in Wuhan alone. Another clue that the current number infected is larger than we’re told.
No panic, but have a plan for the weaker loved ones in our lives of a prudent idea
I agree that it seems that they are fudging the numbers.Most of the people infected that aren’t from that city were on planes with people who were. The Chinese New Year has lots of outsiders there for celebration. Then, they get on their planes home, don’t know they’re infected and voila. It is spread.
CDC says 15 million have caught the flu in the US this year - that’s 4-5% of the population - and many people get shots. I can easily see 30% in Wuhan getting this virus (3 million). 10% mortality, would be 300,000 in Wuhan alone.
Yeah - you don’t shut down cities far larger than New York City over 1400 people getting a typical virus.
Then the mortality rate will drop from 3% to 0.3% or 0.03%