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'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
AFP ^ | Issued on: 24/01/2020 - 11:40 Modified: 24/01/2020 - 11:39 | Agence France-Presse

Posted on 01/24/2020 9:51:30 AM PST by Zhang Fei

China's communist rulers draw on a deep well of public acquiesence -- partly due to control of the internet, no free press and a brutally efficient security apparatus.

"I can't imagine there would be too many countries that would be able to do something on this scale as quickly as China has done," Kamradt-Scott said.

Even so, Kamradt-Scott warned a lockdown that extends for a week or more would produce "growing levels of discontent and frustration".

- Quarantine 'illusion' -

Kamradt-Scott said that, even though the virus would inevitably spread, the quarantine appeared designed to buy authorities time to put in place other measures.

He cited China's plans to build a 1,000-bed hospital in Wuhan in just 10 days.

Zi, from the S. Rajaratnam School, also said there was some hope the quarantines would have a level of success in containing the outbreak.

"I believe it is possible given China's expertise in this area of population control, or urban control," Zi said.

Yet the history of quarantine suggests controls will be far from watertight.

The concept emerged in Venice in the 14th century, where ships arriving at the city state from infected ports were held offshore for 40 days.

Over the centuries the US attempted quarantines to combat yellow fever, European nations tried to subdue cholera outbreaks, and several West African nations sealed off townships to hem in Ebola in the last decade.

Quarantine is "purely an illusion", said Bruno Halioua, a historian of medicine at the University of Paris IV.

"Quarantine has never worked. Each time, there have been problems."

And after seeing the situation in Wuhan first-hand, Guan Yi of Hong Kong University shared an equally pessimistic outlook.

"I've never felt scared," Guan said. "This time I'm scared."

(Excerpt) Read more at france24.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; chinavirus; coronavirus; disease; infectious; kag; maga; prepper; preppers; trump; wuhan
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To: Black Agnes

Good point.


41 posted on 01/24/2020 10:48:34 AM PST by nuconvert ( Warning: Accused of being a radical militarist. Approach with caution.)
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To: Born to Conserve

[The Chicoms don’t care if millions die, they just don’t want it to be disruptive. ]


We use collective terms because it’s too much of a hassle to list all the personalities involved. But the reality is that Xi Jinping cares and all of his rivals do. Because if he falls down on this, they will be waiting to kick him down the staircase. Dictatorships work differently from democracies in one important way - the losers in factional rivalries can end up in prison or much, much worse.


42 posted on 01/24/2020 10:54:27 AM PST by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Mariner

True, Did they quarantine the caves where the bats who have the disease are contained?


43 posted on 01/24/2020 11:05:10 AM PST by oldasrocks (Heavily Medicated for your Protection.)
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To: Mariner
heartiness for several days on cold surfaces ensured that

There's nothing special about that. Hadriness is common feature of those viruses. The question in that case is how easily can you get infected from that contaminated surface, and I don't think that has been answered. Typically it is difficult to get infected that way.

44 posted on 01/24/2020 11:05:30 AM PST by palmer (Democracy Dies Six Ways to Sunday)
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To: Jolla

My son is going to Hong Kong and then Singapore soon. What are the odds his company will cancel the trips. It’s all those people jammed into a confined space on an airplane that worries me the most.


45 posted on 01/24/2020 11:05:53 AM PST by heylady
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To: ClearCase_guy

Once you’ve seen enough of these scares the next scare merely produces contempt for those hyping fear and those foolish enough to panic over it.


46 posted on 01/24/2020 11:06:13 AM PST by thoughtomator (... this has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.)
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To: heylady

I hope they cancel his trip.


47 posted on 01/24/2020 11:06:29 AM PST by Jane Long (Praise God, from whom ALL blessings flow.)
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To: palmer

Hardiness


48 posted on 01/24/2020 11:06:31 AM PST by palmer (Democracy Dies Six Ways to Sunday)
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To: Zhang Fei

Wuhan has a population of NYC and LA combined. They could block major highways but anything beyond that is completely upon the people. Pinky swear you won’t leave. Just wait until the natives get restless.


49 posted on 01/24/2020 11:07:17 AM PST by bgill
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To: Zhang Fei

> Dictatorships work differently from democracies in one important way - the losers in factional rivalries can end up in prison or much, much worse.

It happens in democracies also, they’re just not as honest about it.

Look at the Dems drooling over themselves to find a reason to put Trump in jail... and when they fail they themselves will end up in prison (or hanged) for the seditious attempt.


50 posted on 01/24/2020 11:08:06 AM PST by thoughtomator (... this has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.)
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To: palmer
Yep. They’re not saying much about transmission methods or viability times, on this one, as they normally do, by now. 🤔
51 posted on 01/24/2020 11:08:16 AM PST by Jane Long (Praise God, from whom ALL blessings flow.)
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To: heylady

He should postpone that trip, period, don’t even wait for the company.


52 posted on 01/24/2020 11:08:57 AM PST by Jolla
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To: bgill

[Wuhan has a population of NYC and LA combined. They could block major highways but anything beyond that is completely upon the people. Pinky swear you won’t leave. Just wait until the natives get restless.]


It’s not the population size that’s an issue. It’s the vast area. 12,000 sq miles or more in the expanded quarantine area.


53 posted on 01/24/2020 11:09:53 AM PST by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: ClearCase_guy

.gov cries wolf so often they have zero credibility.

Of course if we could use that as an excuse to clamp down on illegal immigration that would be making lemonade out of lemons.


54 posted on 01/24/2020 11:14:09 AM PST by cgbg (The Democratic Party is morphing into the Donner Party)
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To: bgill

[Wuhan has a population of NYC and LA combined. They could block major highways but anything beyond that is completely upon the people. Pinky swear you won’t leave. Just wait until the natives get restless.]


Another way of putting this is that the expanded area is 20x the land area of LA and NY combined. Even Wuhan alone was 5x the land area of LA and NY combined.


55 posted on 01/24/2020 11:15:34 AM PST by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Mariner; Zhang Fei; 2ndreconmarine; Fitzcarraldo; Covenantor; Mother Abigail; EBH; Dog Gone; ...
Mariner :" It’s already everywhere with zero chance of containment.
14 day incubation and heartiness for several days on cold surfaces ensured that.
By the time the 10th person fell ill, it was already out of the bag."

Infectious Disease Ping - Update Wuhan (airborne pneumonia)virus - China & Elsewhere

Caution is advised, especially if traveling, or in confined areas (ie.: airplane).
Avoid large groups. Be aware,.. and take proactive actions.
This is not the time to panic - but to prepare !
Confirmed cases in the US - Texas, Washington State, Chicago and elsewhere.

See earlier posting : CDC coronavirus/influenza prevention and responses at :
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3810445/posts

56 posted on 01/24/2020 11:17:10 AM PST by Tilted Irish Kilt
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To: Zhang Fei

Get real, nothing can be done to stop any kind of serious out-break, it has to run it’s course, that’s all there is to it.


57 posted on 01/24/2020 11:18:03 AM PST by GulfMan
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To: Zhang Fei

And the land area keeps increasing. Test shortages will also affect the numbers reported.

https://www.winterwatch.net/2020/01/whats-this-new-coronavirus-outbreak-really-all-about/

“Now, we learn at the time of this posting that eleven cities: Zhijiang, Enshi, Qianjiang, Huangshi, Wuhan, Huangging, Xiantao, Chibi, Hubei, Tianmen and Ezhou totaling 33 million are being quarantined and public transport shut down. There are also concerns about a winter food shortage.

Chinese officials have raised the alert level to 1 (highest possible level).

The numbers announced as shown at left are go to lag, as China, faces such a shortage of coronavirus test-kits that people say getting one is like ‘winning the lottery’.”


58 posted on 01/24/2020 11:23:06 AM PST by bgill
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To: Vermont Lt

It would have little economic impact in China if 22 million Chinese died from this disease. Of course the spread to other modern countries is the problem.
Health care in China is very sparse. Mere speculation, but many more people could die from disease in that country and nobody would know. Their government values human life very little.


59 posted on 01/24/2020 11:30:23 AM PST by cornfedcowboy
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To: heylady

Most businesses would cancel the trip if the danger is real. If anything, just postpone and see how it all plays out. I wouldn’t worry too much about it.


60 posted on 01/24/2020 11:38:07 AM PST by cornfedcowboy
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