Posted on 01/16/2020 7:08:30 AM PST by billorites
What if in November enough black Americans voted for Donald Trump to re-elect him into the presidency?
This unlikely straw has been in the political winds recently because in three opinion polls—Emerson, Marist and Rasmussen—President Trump registered about 30% support among black voters.
Asked to respond by InsideSources.com, former Hillary Clinton adviser Joel Payne said: “I have a better chance of jumping center for the Celtics tonight than Donald Trump having 30% support in the African-American community.” He may get the call.
The reason this unlikely 30% number breaks the seals in Democratic heads is that for years it has been a rule of thumb in politics that if black support for Republicans ever reached 20% of the total vote, a Democratic presidential candidate would not be able to win, ever.
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An enduring condescension of our politics is that the voting preferences of minorities, especially black Americans, are monolithic and unchanging. This is notably untrue of Hispanics, whose vote this time is up for grabs, and who are a substantial percentage of voters in Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Texas and Florida.
As well, one of the great, well-documented social dynamics of our time is the migration of black Americans out of the politically blue urban centers in the north—New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, even Los Angeles—for greater economic opportunity across the Southern U.S. Days ago, the Journal reported on the array of benefits manufacturers are offering to get needed workers to relocate to take a half-million unfilled factory jobs.
Social mobility, the most durable antipoverty program, is stirring again. Rick Perry’s question about results and party is suddenly apt. The tectonic plates of American society are moving again, and not in ways that comport with the progressive story line of intractable inequality and racism.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
I can’t say if Trump will or won’t but I would bet my last dollar Mayor Pete won’t.
Can he? He already has earned the support of many Blacks.
Many blacks will vote for Trump and keep it to themselves.
30% is a huge number who are turning their backs on the DNC.
I ran some numbers.
I assumed that 10% of blacks voted for Trump in 2016.
If 27% of blacks had voted for Trump in 2016, and that level of support was nationwide, Trump would’ve picked up only one new state (VA), for another 13 electoral votes.
Here are some other numbers:
27% of blacks voted Trump = 13 more EVs (VA)
31% of blacks voted Trump = 19 more EVs (VA, NV)
32% of blacks voted Trump = 29 more EVs (VA, NV, MN)
40% of blacks voted Trump = 32 more EVs (VA, NV, MN, DE)
If blacks were politically neutral (50%), the GOP would’ve picked up another 32 EVs from VA, NV, MN and DE.
Blacks didn’t have anything to lose in 2016 by voting for Trump, but have a lot to lose in 2020 by not voting Trump.
A better question would be why do blacks as a group vote for Democrats?
To claim that the Black vote is “monolithic”, as stated in the article, is a polite way of saying this voting block lacks the ability to think for itself. Black voters are expected to fall in line behind “thought leaders” such as Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson. But, it seems a new leader has emerged, and her name is Candace Owens. She has challenged the Democrat orthodoxy that all Blacks must be Democrats. She has urged Black voters to think for themselves. As more Blacks listen to her and think about how they want to be treated, it is not inconceivable that President Trump will garner a larger percentage of the vote than the Democrats imagine.
Great point. Don’t forget the Walk Away movement.
More and more Blacks are leaving the Plantation.
“Blacks didn’t have anything to lose in 2016 by voting for Trump, but have a lot to lose in 2020 by not voting Trump”.
Right on! Your post is the thread winner.
When I think of what a liberal looks like I don’t think black or brown.
I see either a fat white guy with a smirk, or a skinny know-it-all with glasses and a nasally voice.
The usual liberal women are either fat with long scraggly hair dressed in moo moo’s with a crystal hanging from their neck or is rail thin, pinched face, glasses with an angry look.
ALL Conservative Women are beautiful inside and out!
He will and has.........................
In April of 1968, MLK was murdered, setting off a second “hot summer” of violence among deep-urban residents of major industrial centers in the US. most of these residents were black. I know...I was there in the rust-belt of Michigan (I-94).
In November of 1968, a republican -Richard M Nixon- handily won the Presidency. He did not do this without a large portion of black voter support...which included, to some degree, King himself. Many of these black supporters voted for Nixon after being beaten and arrested only a few short months before.
See muh tagline.
Exactly! I was thinking about posting something similar, but yours is PERFECT.
Across the board — not just minorities — I think he’ll have Reagan-esque EV votes. Considering how he won in 2016 as a complete unknown politically speaking, and considering how the country is running under him now ... I don’t see any other outcome.
In addition, many Blacks this year will not cast a vote for President so they can truthfully say to friends and family that, no, they did not vote for Trump, despite comments that seemed to favor him. The Democrats will claim that this Black undervote at the top of the ticket is evidence of vote tampering.
You're right of course.
but I still want to see Tulsi Gabbard naked.
He already has. It’s just how much.
He’ll get some Black support, maybe higher than in 2016, but it’s going to depend on where that support is. If his support among Blacks climbs in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and South Carolina but falls among Blacks in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania then it isn’t going to matter in the end.
Since many whites have been taught not to discuss politics in social settings, Many whites vote for Trump and keep it private.
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