Posted on 01/07/2020 9:47:21 AM PST by C19fan
Tesla Inc. is as big as peak Ford Motor Co., with the Silicon Valley electric-car maker stock poised to hit another record on Tuesday.
Tesla TSLA, +2.73% shares traded as high as $462.06, up more than 1% from Monday’s record close, the latest in a series of ever-climbing notches that stretch back to mid-December.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
It is a bit more than that now. They are cranking out about 20K cars a month in the US. That is about the full capacity of a single car plant..
I read an excellent post that said Tesla is a complete gamble - could be worth nothing, could be worth $1000 per share or more.
Tesla is very different from the likes of Ford or GM. It does everything itself - produces its own parts, has its own stores. Therefore its risk (and reward) are highly concentrated. If electric vehicles really do replace internal combustion vehicles, it is position to be a huge winner.
If not, Teslas debt and structure will sink it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-01-06/why-we-dont-own-tesla-stock-and-no-were-not-bears
Tesla doesn’t get taxpayer money.
The EV tax _credit_ is about to disappear.
Tesla produces substantially more in taxes than what it arguably got.
(Musk, in one year alone, paid in taxes _half_ of what Tesla allegedly got. $2.5B income tax payment, vs cumulative $5B in tax credits for customers. That constitutes substantially more in tax paid by many over time.)
This notion that “Tesla exists for the tax money” is BS. Tesla doesn’t get a dime of tax money. To inspire development of EVs (vs the stalled-out state of ICE vehicles), your legislators allowed a tax credit; insofar as we can’t get across-the-board massive tax cuts, I’ll approve of whatever tax credits we can get out of gov’t. If Tesla doesn’t make cars that people buy, with their own (not taxpayer) real money, the business folds. We’re not talking Solyndra here, which did get $millions in taxpayer money and disappeared a year later with little to show, Tesla is a stable and growing business making a popular vehicle for a decade now.
Before you snap about “tax credits”: you do/did/would take the home mortgage tax credit, right? that’s WAY bigger than the EV credit over time.
Tesla is the Apple of cars. Incredibly loyal fan base.
China allows Tesla to build a factory without licensing to a Chinese partner. China wants to grow without more oil imports.
Tesla ultimately is an energy storage technology company. Battery banks will allow California to shut off power on windy days.
Yes, I’m long, but don’t own their expensive car.
Tesla didn’t get gov’t subsidies. Customers got tax credits; nobody got taxpayer money for this.
Re: stockholders - similar was said about Amazon when it reached where Tesla is now ($469/share); today Amazon is $1912/share.
Bailout? for what? The Cybertruck alone, promising production two years hence, got $25,000,000 of preorder cash in less than a week after announcement. They can’t produce enough cars to meet demand. They’re making a clear profit on each built. Production in China has started, opening another huge market. Several European countries will end ICE vehicle sales in a few years. Just review the charts at https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/10/06/tesla-in-4-charts.aspx to see how the spending (necessary to ramp up production) has turned of late.
Transportation economics require 3 things:
- Manufacturing. ICE has parts & assembly all over with lots of transport, unions, and middlemen. Tesla is Made in USA (and now China for Chinese market), Tesla builds practically the whole thing, ground up, batteries included; cheap supply chain; no unions or resellers to jack up prices.
- Sales. ICE has gov’t-enforced monopoly-based sales. Tesla has online sales: pick your configuration, CC or Apple Pay and it’s on its way; very soon the car will be able to literally deliver itself to you.
- Power. ICE requires independent gasoline providers. Between home charging and Supercharger network, Tesla has excluded the necessity of third-party power providers (and can leverage off the other EV power networks), yet provides practically full national coverage.
Tesla market cap is $82B. Revenue is $25B and rising. That ratio alone (usually about 10:1) indicates it’s massively under-valued.
Tesla gets $0 from the government.
Customers get tax breaks, yes, but so do mortgages.
Tesla’s “expensive car” is plummeting in price. Yes, the S & X are heading toward $100k, and the Roadster is a quarter-mil, but the 3 and Cybertruck start within the $30k range and have far lower maintenance & “fuel” costs than ICE competitors.
Yes, Tesla is the Apple of cars. There’s a reason Apple has a quarter-trillion dollars cash in the bank, and Tesla has a clear path there.
“Customers got tax credits”
When a financial transaction is executed it does not matter a whit whether it’s the buyer or seller that is subsidized.
I do know there are new companies starting to get some visibility and frankly may be better options but time will tell. Competition will put more stress on Tesla if it cant respond but here again time will tell. I know I cant justify the cost verses performance and I need a 4x4 that is functional. The new truck did not impress me at all but its a step in the right direction technology wise. I still like hydrogen but that tech needs more maturation time.
Here is one that popped up last December Rivian.
https://rivian.com/
Do you likewise oppose mortgage interest deductions?
Do you take _any_ deductions/credits when filing your taxes?
No taxpayer money goes to Tesla.
Buyers get a slight reduction in their taxes because your legislature decided that which they otherwise would have confiscated in taxes is better spent by the gov’t _not_ taking it, instead improving the country by you using it for an EV.
Yes, there are other EV competitors popping up, from newbies like Rivian to Big Auto like Ford & most other ICE manufacturers. The former face a huge fight, being behind the curve and having no serious capabilities vs their competition. The latter are too big for their own good, dragged down by deeply established habits & hangers-on. Tesla is far enough ahead to have a serious chance, and is leveraging everything conceivable to far outdo competitors.
Cybertruck looks bizarre, and makes some dubious choices, but does stand out (Rivian just has funky headlights) and covers the bulk of the intended market with impressive specs. 11/19 was the right time to introduce it, got gobs of attention in doing so, got lots of orders, and has time to correct deficiencies which concern you.
BTW: the recent Rivian “tank turn” ad concerns me. Yes, it can do a zero-radius turn ... but they make clear it’s _very_ hard on the drivetrain - to wit “hey, look at the awesome thing this can do, but if you do you risk wrecking the $50k vehicle”. Seems like something @ScottAdamsSays would dub “bad persuasion”.
Loyal fan base you say?
Absolutely.
Crazy loyal.
I was out in my parking lot a few day ago. Two of my guys are standing around fiddling with their phones. Out in the parking lot there are two Tesla model 3’s driving around with nobody in the cars. They are driving them from their phones.
These are 30’ish types who have all sort of toys. Have $400K+ houses. They would give up everything to keep the Tesla’s. I don’t think they would ever buy a vehicle from anyone else.
The Tesla’s are pretty cool. I drove one of the higher end models in ludicrous mode. It’s amazing. I’d rather drive my GT3, GT350 or other toys though. I think that if we indeed had climate change issues and changed to 100’s of the new technology nuke plants then electric would make sense. Electrify everything. But alas, there I no such thing as climate change.
Elon Musk? He’s the Edison of our time. Amazing mind.
Another cool electric thing I the Rivian truck. Check out the thing in “tank mode”. Cool.
Wanna know what I really don’t like? What I don’t like is what is going to happen over the next 36 month in the sky. Besides all the space junk we will have an incredible amount of drone garbage above us. I’ve seen the technology in the works and the stuff that is going to be flying over us will change the sky forever.
“Do you likewise oppose mortgage interest deductions?”
Yes.
But an interest deduction is considerably different than a tax credit.
The trucks are a funny thing to me. If you look at the current run of the mill Ford or Dodge high end trucks I would be apprehensive to go out brush breaking in one just due the possibility of repairing one cost wise.
Now with that said they are designed to take a reasonable amount of punishment and are capable of decent range and on a wide range of terrain. I have yet to see a electric version in trail climbing or serious weather or the like. I like the concept but they need serious testing for reliability and longevity.
I am also in the camp that there should be zero gov’t incentives to purchase a car on any level.
When I was at Microsoft there where hundreds of Tesla’s there and the amount of money people were plunking down for the status and cool factor was a curious thing for me. I still don’t understand it and wonder what will happen when the shiny factor wears off. The typical throw away mentality will come into play I suspect.
Like someone said recently, “When a financial transaction is executed it does not matter a whit whether it’s the buyer or seller that is subsidized.” Interest deduction or EV tax credit, taxpayer has taxes lowered because s/he bought something legislators want more of.
I’m all for lower taxes wherever we can get them.
Here in the Atlanta region Teslas (and other EVs) are everywhere. Wait a minute and one will pass by (not kidding). Perfect area: significant commuting (within battery range, charged up daily), not too cold/hot, decent 3rd-party charging infrastructure, moderately affluent population.
The incentives are fading. They admittedly helped jump-start the industry & demand around here, mostly by getting more chargers around to address range anxiety, and got more people into them to discover how great EVs are to actually use.
Tax credits go to people who pay no taxes (too).
Deductions are only for those who pay taxes.
Say what?
They're selling more than that each quarter, but the big number is 50% annual growth.
I’d count the Green Credit as a government subsidy.
Though technically not taxpayer money, ultimately it is.
Lot of the “green” subsidies are hidden like that.
Interesting company and method.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.