Posted on 12/08/2019 4:26:24 PM PST by Zhang Fei
The Chinese communist regime is heading towards disintegration and the West needs to be prepared to manage the fallout, according to a leading China scholar.
Arthur Waldron, China historian and Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, made the remarks in a recent interview on The Epoch Times’ American Thought Leaders. He shared his views on the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) imminent collapse, U.S. foreign policy on China, and the relentless Hong Kong protests that have posed a major challenge to Beijing’s rule. CCP’s Disintegration
The CCP has started on a path of decline and is headed towards a similar fate as the Soviet Union when it collapsed in 1991, the professor said.
“I believe that China is in this stage of disintegration or ‘jie ti (解體)’, and it’s something that you don’t see immediately,” said Waldron.
The Chinese regime’s practice of forced organ harvesting—which results in an estimated tens of thousands of prisoners of conscience killed every year to supply its organ transplant market—and its treatment of Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in the northwestern region of Xinjiang, made it “the most evil regime” since the Nazi Germany, Waldron said.
He recalled a conversation with an unidentified person, who is a close advisor to Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
“He said to me, Arthur, what the hell are we going to do? Everybody knows that this [political] system doesn’t work. We have reached a “si hu tong” (死胡同),” said Waldron said, explaining that the Chinese phrase means a “dead-end street.”
The advisor continued: “But what we don’t know is what is the next step to take because … there are mines everywhere and if we take a step, we may set off a terrible explosion.”
(Excerpt) Read more at theepochtimes.com ...
It was a combination of Reagan and Chernobyl that sunk the old USSR... What are the uber large events that could topple China? And are we really ready for chaos on the level that could bring?
We are witnessing Tiananmen 2.0 but it won’t end like Tiananmen 1.0
> Nixon helped by opening the door. We were used.
Well, the Soviets were pretty close to nuking the Chinese and at the time the Soviets were the bigger worry.
Biggest mistake was letting the Chinese into the WTO on such easy conditions.
I wouldn’t hold my breath. I would guess a collapse of that regime would begin with a military mutiny led by some warlord that wanted to be dictator. It wouldn’t last long before China entered a “time of troubles”, with all sorts of strongmen vying for power, with economic and social crises.
A few million Chinese would likely be slaughtered in the process, which is the typical fare for that trip. On the plus side, communism would hopefully be discarded as an inefficient waste.
“I remember reading a book in 1987 that claimed that the Castro Regime was heading for imminent collapse. Over 3 decades later, I am still waiting.”
The difference is, how could you even tell if Cuba has disintegrated? The people there have been reduced to such a low level of existence it would hardly make a ripple in the world if it disappeared entirely. China, OTOH...
It still amazes me that so few people died when the USSR collapsed considering that at the time (or possibly ever) they had arguably the most powerful standing army on the planet. I doubt that this would be the case with China. I’ve got to believe that too many people there would have too much to lose for that to happen. They all know their own history.
The difference is nukes.
I just can’t think a feudal regime wouldn’t use them to defend itself.
It’s like “Newtonian” and “Einsteinian” physics, in the nuclear realm one doesn’t apply.
[I wouldn’t hold my breath. I would guess a collapse of that regime would begin with a military mutiny led by some warlord that wanted to be dictator.]
The leaders will just buy North American real estate and move if the going gets tough.
Last one out gets to turn off the lights!
Zaing Fei: So wha you are saying is WE need another INTERNAL war inside China. Like we need muzzles to fight each other. It helps.
I’m sorry to reject someone so knowledgeable, but...
Pre nuke political science doesn’t apply.
A nuke-capable feudal regime is different. Comparisons to the past are ineffectual. Feudal regimes go as far as they can, and have no inherent limits.
I am saying that the style of rule has not changed, even with nukes. Nukes simply makes the despots more dangerous outside of the Middle Kingdom. China has gone through periods of expansion before that have been highly aggressive and destructive. Kubilai attempted to conquer Japan and Vietnam.There has been 2500 years of constant occupaton and pressure on SEA. There is no difference in quality between Xi and Kubilai, only in reach.
But that difference in reach makes all the difference.
Attacking an enemy with a nuke is existentially different from past attacks.
No past overthrow of a feudal regime faced such a problem:
the regime can defend itself from internal threats by launching nukes, or threatening to.
The wealthy support Communist rule because the collapse of central institutions would be followed by economic collapse.
Current rulers don’t want democracy because it reminds them of the chaos of the Cultural Revolution.
If the regime disappears, there is no guarantee a democratic government will fill the vacuum.
Attacking you with a gun is different in reach but no different in character. Adding a blower to a Camaro increases the power and speed but does not change the character of the driver.
I get where you’re coming from.
A feudal regime that can defend itself with a nuclear bomb is just completely different from feudal regimes in the past.
The current system works for the Chinese. They have no incentive to change what’s given them economic prosperity, a certain measure of freedom and China about to become a superpower.
Throwing all of that away for Western democracy would be the height of folly.
The PLA itself is not a monolith, correct?
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