Posted on 12/03/2019 7:12:22 PM PST by cba123
President Trump’s comment that he had no deadline on a China deal has predictably thrown markets into a tizzy, as the self-imposed deadline of Dec. 15 for additional tariffs is now less than two weeks away.
The market is now grappling with the likelihood of no trade deal, but the critical issue is tariffs. I asked UBS Art Cashin if traders would be satisfied with 1) no new tariffs on Dec. 15, 2) keeping additional tariffs, and 3) no deal going into the new year.
(Please see link for full article)
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
I just noticed Trump apparently said something, somehow maybe related to NK today.
Here is the link:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FrGHzS7h3nY
The PresidenT and the Commerce Secretary have been making public statements the last couple of days, that seem to be geared toward preparing the markets for no deal with China during the current negotiations, and the next scheduled package of new tariffs going into effect on 15 December.
That would be 15% on $112 billion per year of goods - mostly finished consumer goods, especially cellphone, laptops, cameras and toys. That package of tariffs will be a focused hit on the Shenzhen area of China, their “Silicon Valley”. The whole integrated supply chain for those products in that area would be rocked by a contraction, and an exodus of companies to lower cost countries.
On 15 December, new orders will have no effect on our Christmas shopping, so it would be a very convenient time for us to impose higher tariffs on such goods ( as the Commerce Secretary pointed out).
The serious tariffs have been rolling out on pretty clear quarterly pattern. Letting the package already prepared and scheduled for 15 December go into effect, would be right in line with this trend.
I expect that pattern to continue, until 25-30% tariffs are in place on all communist Chinese imports, early next year. The chance of a serious economic or financial crisis occurring in China would go way up.
Trump said the new trade deal may not be until after the next election. This is a wise move. The Chinese hope he will not be elected again. They are wrong. In effect he is saying, “make a good deal today but after the election the deal will be much harsher.”
Exactly what I've been thinking. Get ready for the dip, and buy those stocks I've been eyeing.
Pfft...it’s CNBC.
Since congress does not want a Trump victory, they have been willing to sacrifice any positive deals for this admin. He has shown that deregulating frees the businesses to do business, and growth rates over 2% can be the minimums, rather than the maximums.
DK
Exactly, look where the market was Dec. 24, 2018.
But it’s not just a “trade war”
China will strike back with NK and the Mideast or wherever it can.
Especially grad students.
The howls of agony and bitter salty tears of the Admins and the leftist professors will be delicious.
These clowns STILL haven’t figured out Trump yet.
All time high hit, now profit taking. Panic!
“China will strike”
...so better to weaken them as much as we can, as soon as we can.
Strategically, we need a trade divorce from the malign gangsters of the Chinese communist party.
Stop feeding the beast.
Liberal wishful thinking.
This doesn't add up. Trade with Chine is $850B out of a $22T dollar US economy, or 3.8% of US GDP. So how can the stock market crash and loose Trillion$ over that?
I THOUGHT THE TARIFFS WE HAVE NOW WERE GOING TO RUIN BLACK FRIDAY AND CHRISTMAS SALES THIS YEAR? INSTEAD, RETAIL IS ON TRACK TO HAVE A RECORD UP YEAR.
/bingo
There was a little slide going on since the Monday before T-giving, no surprise there, and the premarket action is all up in my tiny little portfolio (that was before 7:30 a).
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