Posted on 11/07/2019 8:48:38 AM PST by edwinland
KEY POINTS In reporting about the 2020 presidential contest, it’s likely that at least some of those stories quote nationwide polls.
Hopefully most Americans have figured out that both the primary elections to choose a presidential nominee and the general election to choose the president are state-by-state contests.
But statewide polls are much less reliable than nationwide surveys.
There’s a multi-faceted silver lining to all of this if we’re all willing to admit the truth about this polling conundrum.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
But statewide polls are much less reliable than nationwide surveys.
Funny when Obama was running in 2012 and losing in he National Polling, all the “polling experts” said we should not watch the national polls but focus on the state by state polling.
Now they want to discount the state by state polling and focus on the nation surveys?
How about this. Ban polling all together and an illegal attempt at election interference
Because people are smart enough to lie to the pollsters.
Personally I lie to them. Just to get the extreme entertainment value of watching pundits’ heads explode on election night.
I call it polling mal-practice.
If some hot-shot attorneys could sue the polling companies for mal-practice the garbage polls would end quickly.
Most common polling mal-practice includes:
—Assumptions of who will turn out that are at best wild guesses
—Over sampling of Democrats and/or Independents
—Poor wording of questions (intentional or accidental)
—Failure to reach true random samples of voters (again intentional or accidental)
—As noted in the article, meaningless national polls
—Rushing to get out polls with incomplete or faulty analysis
—Failure to fully disclose the assumptions underlying the poll, and/or failure to highlight those assumptions when they are critical to the result.
—”Agenda” polling, where the purpose is to try to affect public opinion rather than just report on it
etc etc etc
Because they want to get them wrong?
It’s easy to tell wrong polls vs. fake polls. Wrong polls roughly break 50/50 to either side, but fake polls are always “wrong” in favor of the Democrats.
Presidential polling is gaslighting. Just like in 2016.
When I was an undergrad in sociology in the early 70s, we spent a LOT of time working on the principles of polling / surveying and statistical analysis of said research. Of course in those days our goal was accuracy and truth. Hard to believe, huh?
If we had submitted survey’s like this crap to our profs, it would have been Ds and Fs.
There are legitimate in-house polls, but those are secret.
Mass media exists to tell lies—the truth is top secret!
Mass media exists to tell lies—the truth is top secret!
Man, oh, man. You win the Kewpie Doll.
All real campaigns do their pwn polling because they all know that the "street" polls are just published to shape opinion.
The closest poll trying to get to the truth is Rasmussen and it's only partially accurate.
The bottom line...they’re part of the dis-information subversives.
November 2020 is going to be a Trump landslide of historic proportions.
“One in Five Dallas Trump Rally Registrants Was Democrat, Campaign Chair Says”
“TRUMP on Track to Win More Black Votes Than Any GOP Candidate Since 1960”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/trump-track-win-black-votes-gop-candidate-since-1960/
If I got polled I Lie and say I’m voting Dem.
The author is only concerned with why Hillary lost and not why state polls were wrong on Trump.
Candidates don’t only rely on internal polls, they work with eyes-on-the-ground for feedback and donor and voter enthusiasm measured in multiple ways. Hillary’s team just could have noticed, but they didn’t want to see the truth, and this complaint that “state polls are inaccurate” has nothing to do with it.
Ummm - if you use “Eric Ciarmella” in the search bar, it has lots of pics of him including some with Schiff and with captions that contain “whistleblower”.
I believe the “science” of polling is now obsolete. Majority of people no longer have land lines in their homes. Even a larger majority of people no longer answer their phone if they do not know the caller. Most of the polls we see are simply made up.
"The author is only concerned with why Hillary lost and not why state polls were wrong on Trump."
If you’re looking for a definitive reason why those crucial swing state polls were wrong, good luck. In the year or so since the 2016 election, we’ve heard a number of explanations that either don’t hold up to scrutiny or cannot be objectively proven.
Perhaps the best example of that is the early explanation promoted by some pollsters who said that the 2016 swing state polls were wrong because most of them did not accurately weight them based on the respondents’ level of education.
But here’s the problem with that theory: the few statewide polls that were weighted for education levels also got the actual election results wrong. In some cases, The New York Times reported they were even more off the mark than the non-education weighted polls.
The other prevailing explanations are hard to fix or even prove. One theory is that a large majority of undecided voters decided to vote for Trump at the last minute. Another is that Trump was and is supported by disaffected Americans who are very unlikely to respond to pollsters at all.
"Candidates don’t only rely on internal polls, they work with eyes-on-the-ground for feedback and donor and voter enthusiasm measured in multiple ways. Hillary’s team just could have noticed, but they didn’t want to see the truth, and this complaint that “state polls are inaccurate” has nothing to do with it."
Second, candidates who become more sensitive to the likely inaccuracy of statewide polling should become more likely to visit more of those states more often.
One of the great lessons of Hillary Clinton’s failed 2016 bid was the fact that her decision not to make more frequent visits to key Rustbelt states came back to burn her.
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