Is Boris Johnson Actually Winning?

The Atlantic ^ | 15th October 2019 | Tom McTague

[naturalman1975]

Boris Johnson has not won a single vote in the House of Commons...

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And yet, despite everything, an intriguing question is bubbling up in London, even among some of those predisposed to hate anything Johnson does or stands for: Is he winning?

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Whatever else can legitimately be leveled at Johnson’s door, he cannot (yet) be accused of making the same mistake. He has defined what he wants from Brexit—maximum sovereignty and no more delays. The rest of his policy flows from there.

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Johnson’s political strategy at home is also showing early signs of success. In contrast to May, he has sought to control the agenda, setting a simple narrative in the public’s mind about what he is trying to achieve and why voters should not blame him if he fails. Like Donald Trump with the border wall with Mexico, he calculates that it is not failure that is punished by voters, but a lack of trying.

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Within a week it will be clear whether he has successfully managed to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s departure from the EU in a way that stands a chance of being ratified by the U.K. Parliament....

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In reality, no one—not even those at 10 Downing Street—is clear on what will happen should negotiations fall short this week or soon thereafter (there is now talk of a second emergency summit before October 31). If no agreement is reached, events could quickly begin to spiral out of Johnson’s control.

Is he winning? At the least, he hasn’t lost yet.

[aspasia]

Boris has a little fire in his belly. Imagine that, you can skip the Atlantic and watch Boris himself

[originalbuckeye]

I am glad Boris is fighting for the Sovereignty of the UK. May didn’t want Brexit, so she accepted whatever Brussels wanted, in the hope that citizens of the UK would accept that the EU would still control certain aspects of the EU contract.

On a side note, my husband’s younger relatives (50 and under) simply don’t much remember the UK with total sovereignty. And they enjoy being able to have ‘citizen’ rights in the other countries of the EU. I’m sure they voted Remain. But the older population is fed up with being dictated to by Brussels. I sure hope Boris wins......I didn’t enjoy watching Britain being subjugated by Brussels.

[MeganC]

“Seems to me sovereignty is a lot like pregnancy. Either you are...or you aren’t.”

That’s a great comparison because with both sovereignty and pregnancy there can occur a miscarriage.

!!!

Let’s pray for Boris Johnson that he can act as a competent midwife as Brexit gives birth to a new age of UK sovereignty!

[FLT-bird]

All Boris needs is just one EU member state to veto another extension.

Also, though he is supposedly required to ask for another extension, he can do so under certain conditions - namely that the EU drop any backstop nonsense and drop any claims to judicial authority over Britain. Obviously they won’t accept that. In which case Boris can say “oh well. I asked for an extension. They just wouldn’t play ball”.

[naturalman1975]

Seems to me sovereignty is a lot like pregnancy.

Either you are...or you aren't.

Yes, but it's important to understand the context here.

Even if the UK leaves the EU completely, it still wouldn't achieve a complete reversal of the changes that have limited its sovereignty over the last few decades.

As one example of this, in addition to being a European Union member, the UK is also part of a completely separate and older organisation called the Council of Europe. It will remain part of the Council of Europe even if it leaves the EU.

And that means it is still subject to the rulings of the European Court of Human Rights (which is a CoE court, not an EU Court).

The CoE is less of a restriction on the UK than the EU is, and the ECHR is less interventionist than the organs of the EU, but it's still some restriction on total sovereignty.

Some of us hope that after leaving the EU, there will be further consideration of withdrawal from the jurisdicition of the ECHR, or even total withdrawal from the Council of Europe, but one problem at a time.

Just getting out of the EU will solve 80-90% of the problem. It's not everything but it's the right thing to do first.

[Winniesboy]

The extent to which ECHR and CoE membership are sovereignty issues is, to put it mildly, debatable. Turkey and Russia are members. It’s hardly conceivable that either of them would be so if they believed their sovereignty to be affected!

[PapaBear3625]

Also, though he is supposedly required to ask for another extension, he can do so under certain conditions - namely that the EU drop any backstop nonsense and drop any claims to judicial authority over Britain. Obviously they won’t accept that. In which case Boris can say “oh well. I asked for an extension. They just wouldn’t play ball”.

The Benn act which mandates he ask for an extension, also specifies the exact text of the request he is supposed to send.

[FLT-bird]

I don’t see anything in the text of the Benn Act which requires/rules out the conditions the PM can demand from the EU. It sets the format. It has requirements around dates but I see nothing in it saying the PM cannot demand that the EU meet certain conditions in order to grant an extension.

[PapaBear3625]

The Benn Act specifies the exact text that the PM is mandated to send:

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2019/26/schedule/enacted

The PM is given absolutely no discretion.

[FLT-bird]

I see the form to be used. Boris could openly say “we insist on conditions X, Y, and Z and any extension would be pointless if the EU is not prepared to accept those conditions because we will never agree to present to Parliament any agreement with the EU that contained those terms”.

Then go ahead and send that form letter off. Now the bell is in the Yurps’ court.......remember A veto by even one member state to a further extension results in a clean break Brexit. Granting a further extension by the EU will be seen as accepting the conditions Boris laid out.

[bert]

——dismantling of the EU.——

You speak of dismantling while explaining what amounts to modification of the EU. The process described is actually change. I know this is Free Republic and the term is heresy to some but the change process is evolution. Soverign political evolution.

I agree that there are lots of deals to be put forward to asure some form of the status quo with the UK remains in effect.

[pepsionice]

I spent two years in the late 70s in Germany. I could rattle off a dozen reasons why you needed something like the EU to exist. It was horrendous to travel from Germany to Amsterdam on a Friday night and return on Sunday evening. Exchanging DM’s for Franc’s were always a hassle. The list would go on and on.

So as the 80s and 90s evolved, the EU arrived and solved all of these crappy problems. In 1999...the Euro arrived and ended the currency exchange issue.

At that point, the EU had done all the good things left on the plate, and needed to continue to prove reasons for their existence, and there in....lies the root of problems today.

They decided you needed a regulation over the wattage power for vacuum cleaners. They made dozens of regulations over cars, scooters, light-bulbs, bananas, and even tea pots.

You can ask a hundred Germans today about the representatives for them, and probably three-quarters have no idea who is their person, or what’s on the agenda for this month. Brussels is like some dark cave where things occur all of sudden and the public is shocked that a vote is going to occur in 24 hours over a fairly sensitive topic.

[naturalman1975]

The extent to which ECHR and CoE membership are sovereignty issues is, to put it mildly, debatable.

When you have the ECHR issuing rulings saying that (criminal) prisoners should have the right to vote, that is a sovereignty issue. Parliament hasn't given effect to the ruling so it's of limited influence, but it's still a sovereignty issue.

Personally, I'm not necessarily in favour of Britain withdrawing from the jurisdiction of the ECHR or the CoE. I do agree that its influence is limited and as long as Parliament always retains the power to decide how to give effect to rulings (including whether to give effect to them), it's not a huge deal, but I was mentioning it because a lot of people do think sovereignty has to be absolute to be real and I was just pointing out that even if the UK completely leaves the EU, there are still other treaties in effect that tie it to Europe in other ways.

My problem with the European Union is the concept of 'ever closer union'. At the moment I do believe the UK is still a sovereign nation even within the EU - but I'm not convinced that it would stay that way and so that's why I want it out. If the EU was still the common market that Britain joined, I'd be all for it. If it was guaranteed that it would stay as it is now I could even live with that - that's a personal position, I know many who are more hardline on leaving than I am and I don't want to suggest my position would satisfy most who want to leave.

[Winniesboy]

as long as Parliament always retains the power to decide how to give effect to rulings (including whether to give effect to them), it's not a huge deal

Well, quite. And as long as that's the case, there is no diminution of sovereignty. There's a gap between the perception, the rhetoric and the reality.

The same applies to 'ever closer union' in the EU itself. European officials routinely cite the 'ever closer Union' theme when it's expedient to do so. Some of them may even believe it. But there's very little sign of it actually happening. If anything, ties have become looser since the Lisbon Treaty. In the practical politics of the EU, whenever there's a significant conflict between the interests of a member state (the UK included) and collective EU interests, the member state gets its way. There seems, hitherto at least, to be a nicely balanced equilibrium.

Unfortunately much of the rhetoric in the Brexit saga has been based on the assertion that 'ever closer union', rather than being just a long-term aspiration, has actually been achieved ('EU superstate', 'Fourth Reich' etc etc). Perception has trumped reality.

From what you say it appears that (unlike the Brexiteer ultras) you recognise this: but you believe that the risks of the present EU/member state equilibrium giving way are too great. Well, that's a reasonable position.

[Cronos]

I partially agree that up to Euroland is very good and there must be changes to what came after.

however, you point out myths like the bendy bananas

The EU parliament should be scrapped in favor of just the council of ministers, but then folks would complain about “lack of democracy in the federation”

[Cronos]

I was mentioning it because a lot of people do think sovereignty has to be absolute to be real and I was just pointing out that even if the UK completely leaves the EU, there are still other treaties in effect that tie it to Europe in other ways.

Correct - the refrain is about absolute sovereignty so no trade agreements etc.

[pepsionice]

I would put the EU mechanism in the same category as the US-Congress system. The idiots should meet for 90 days in the spring and 60 days in the fall, always retreating back to the states/countries. Once they brand themselves to all being the master-solution to every problem, they simply screw up the whole thing.

I walked around a fest in Mainz, Germany last year. Big billboards in German....to appreciate the EU because it funneled and paid for several cultural projects in the city, and half of the fest cost was from mother-EU.

Me? The skeptical one? I’m thinking while reading the poster...the idiot German handed tax money over, which got diverted into some EU pot, and the EU ‘Lord’ is handing down a grant for special things they want to fund, and the sign is supposed to signal me that I should appreciate that mother-EU gave funding for the city for culture and the fest.

[Cronos]

That’s true for Germany. In Poland you see a lot of those boards too — the deal is that even if the EU pays for 1% or something of that, you gotta put up that board.

In the case of Poland I think we got a lot more money from the EU and it has really, really improved the infrastructure and business environment