Warren edges past Biden in new national poll

You speakum truth. Old Gray Beaver counting many coup. Much celebration in Gary Beaver wiggwum tonight. She drinkum fire water.

It is the trend, not the actual points.
Biden is trending down now in multiple polls. As is Bernie.
Warren is trending up.

Bid chief Paleface, heap big support... smoking peace pipe with all the right people.

Smoke signals favorable from major media players...

This poll is D+2:

D: 33
R: 31
I+Other: 35

Key questions:

11. In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you definitely not vote for him?

Definitely vote:
- R: 78
- D: 2
- I: 20
Consider voting:
- R: 12
- D: 2
- I: 17
Definitely not vote:
- R: 10
- D: 95
- I: 59

12. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable:
- R: 82
- D: 4
- I: 29
Unfavorable:
- R: 13
- D: 93
- I: 62

25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

Approve:
- R: 85
- D: 5
- I: 32
Disapprove:
- R: 11
- D: 94
- I: 61

13. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable:
- R: 16
- D: 75
- I: 47
Unfavorable:
- R: 77
- D: 16
- I: 42

14. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable:
- R: 8
- D: 68
- I: 45
Unfavorable:
- R: 86
- D: 21
- I: 47

17. Is your opinion of Elizabeth Warren favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable:
- R: 6
- D: 74
- I: 43
Unfavorable:
- R: 77
- D: 9
- I: 37

I'll stop here, but summarize the whole slate for Independents using a Fav minus Unfav delta for comparison of Independent sentiment vs. Democrats:

Trump: -33 (D: -89)
Biden: +5 (+59)
Sanders: -2 (+47)
O'Rourke: -14 (+26)
Harris: -14 (+39)
Warren: +6 (+65)
Booker: -6 (+14)
Klobuchar: -1 (+23)
Buttigieg: +5 (+39)
Castro: -19 (+9)
Yang: -1 (+13)
Steyer: -10 (-3)

26. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

Satisfied+Somewhat:
- R: 76
- D: 10
- I: 33
Dissatisfied+Somewhat:
- R: 23
- D: 90
- I: 64

28. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - the economy?

Approve:
- R: 92
- D: 9
- I: 46
Disapprove:
- R: 7
- D: 86
- I: 49

32. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

Excellent+Good:
- R: 85
- D: 37
- I: 58
Not Good+Poor:
- R: 13
- D: 60
- I: 40

33. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?

Better:
- R: 65
- D: 4
- I: 26
Worse:
- R: 7
- D: 56
- I: 37
Same:
- R: 27
- D: 39
- I: 35

34. Would you say that you are better off or worse off financially today than you were in 2016?

Better:
- R: 79
- D: 27
- I: 49
Worse:
- R: 6
- D: 41
- I: 24
Same:
- R: 12
- D: 31
- I: 24

29. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - foreign policy?

Approve:
- R: 81
- D: 3
- I: 29
Disapprove:
- R: 14
- D: 92
- I: 64

37. Do you think that President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, or don't you think so?

Yes:
- R: 4
- D: 73
- I: 34
No:
- R: 95
- D: 21
- I: 58

Bottom Line:

As with other Quinnipiac polls, they have a large Independent sample size which I believe is stacked with Democrats posing as Independents to gaslight the polls.

In this poll, Independents are tracking closely with Democrat responses EXCEPT for the economy (as was the case last time) and impeachment.

That said, this population of Independents breaks with Democrats on most candidates, agreeing only on these: Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, and Steyer (both dislike).

This is not as diverse a population of Independents as other polling groups assemble, but they are more aligned than not. This leads me to think that this is another gaslight of Democrats hiding the Independent sample. Still, the poll indicates that if Biden drops out, Warren will be their choice.

However, because this sample of Independents breaks with Democrats on the topic of the economy, Warren is vulnerable to losing this group.

-PJ

Warren's Fall 2020 Wardrobe Plans...

The majority of demo_nCrats are out of touch with reality.

Agreed.

The purpose of my analysis at this time is to review the nature of the Independents.

My thesis is that the polling groups, stung by accusations of oversampling Democrats (and therefore being wrong), are now producing polls where the D/R ratio is more aligned, but the Independent population is now out of whack.

I'm suggesting that the pollsters are salting the I population with D's in order to: 1) claim that the D/R oversampling has been corrected, and 2) to gaslight other I's into thinking that independents are breaking away from Trump.

-PJ

Yeah, that’s okay. I’ve no problem with that. I was only looking at some of their numbers and it’s too obvious not to mention their mental deficits.