The Philippines -- The Poland of the Pacific?

American Thinker ^ | 09/12/2019 | Joseph Somsel

[SeekAndFind]

Given China’s position as a classic Asian land power and America’s role as an oceanic hegemon, a military challenge has emerged in the near seas close to China through which the essentials of modern industrial power flow – oil, to name just one. That means the control of the South China Sea is the next step in the establishment of a New Chinese Empire. As in 1938, when Poland lay between the Wehrmacht and the Red Army, the Philippines is the weak point between the U.S. and China.

It is common knowledge that America intends to ring the South China Sea with putative allies -- South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Vietnam. A goal of our foreign policy is to unite these countries into a defensive cordon. Meanwhile the Chinese Communist Party seems to be doing what it can to antagonize the neighbors. Its “Nine Dash Line” ocean aggrandizement, the militarization of shoals and reefs, the bald-faced, brute-force stealing of ocean resources, all should make clear that China is not a good neighbor.

American diplomatic efforts to solidify the front-line countries into a balancing force rely on their basic self-interests as we see them. Our allies sometimes have different views and see complications that Americans may forget. Increasing military cooperation between the Japanese and the South Koreans faces a long history of antagonisms and bitterness, including the literal “rape-rape” of the WWII comfort women. The Vietnamese still remember what we did to try to prevent the current Communist regime from taking over the country. Pieces of B-52s downed during the Christmas Raids of 1972 still adorn public parks in Hanoi.

The country with the most difficult decision to make is the Philippines. The key fact here is that the Philippines is the weakest link in the cordon.

[SeekAndFind]

While South Korea and Japan have modern navies and could become nuclear weapon states at will, Philippines has no evident capability. Vietnam has already beaten back a Chinese army invasion in 1979. Taiwan has braced for invasion for decades.

To quantify the military weakness of the Philippines vs. China, the three largest, most capable ships in the Philippines navy are 40+-year-old former Coast Guard cutters gifted to the country from the U.S. At 3,250 tons and after major retrofit, they are capable naval assets. But the Chinese navy has 62 destroyers and frigates of 3,250 tons or larger – three versus 62 plus swarms of smaller warships and a dozen nuclear attack submarines. A few new corvettes are being delivered to the Philippines from South Korean shipyards, but at 1,700 tons they are half the displacement of the repurposed cutters.

[CondoleezzaProtege]

And it’s Catholic like Poland.

[Leaning Right]

One look at that map and you realize how nonsensical China’s claims are. But other than a shooting war, there is really no way to stop them.

On second thought, there is another way to stop them: High tariffs on Chinese imports until they start to behave.

[Larry Lucido]

Hmmmm.

[DFG]

Lechon

[DIRTYSECRET]

The women are beautiful. Marry one and you can’t go wrong.

[GOP_Party_Animal]

Interesting. Thanks for posting.

[Data Miner]

The are like Russian women- pretty when young but most morph into their grandmothers on their 30th birthday. Beauty fades with any woman though and most Filipinas I have known were very sweet people, so I wouldn’t disagree that they would make good marriage material.

[pfony1]

It’s seems the name “South China Sea” has provided China with a flimsy excuse for invasion.

Let’s start calling that body of water the “South Asian Sea”.

[Leaning Right]

> It’s seems the name “South China Sea” has provided China with a flimsy excuse for invasion. <

I’ve read that China has a very old map that shows the South China Sea as Chinese territory. And that is the basis for the current Chinese claims.

Flimsy indeed.

By the way, I recently found in my basement a map. It shows that my family owns all of China north of the Yangtze river. I wonder if China will honor this claim.

[ASA Vet]

PI_ng

[BeauBo]

“Let’s start calling that body of water the “South Asian Sea”.”

How about the Americo-Philippine Sea?

That will piss them off.

[newnhdad]

Russian women dont gently glide downhill when they age, they fall off a cliff.

[ASA Vet]

So just replace them as they get over the hill. There are millions available.

[Oscar in Batangas]

Actually, the local press tends to call that body of water the West Philippine Sea.

(Possibly at some peril to continued good relations between China and the Philippines)

[knarf]

Lumpia !

[knarf]

Married to a hottie north of 49 .... like any other decision ....

First I look at the pur ...... mama.

[knarf]

PS

Showed my wife how we folded and rolled our socks, underwear and etc in the mid sixties Army and ....

My sock drawer et al is absolutely BEAUTIFUL.

I made no request nor demand, just showed and on her own, she picked up on it.

[Leaning Right]

> Russian women dont gently glide downhill when they age, they fall off a cliff. <

Old Soviet joke.
To bring in more money for the state, Brezhnev orders that a strip club be opened up in Moscow. But it fails miserably. So Brezhnev calls in the club manager for answers.

Brezhnev: Comrade manager, why has the club failed? Was it the music?
Manager: No, sir. We only played the latest hits.

Brezhnev: Then maybe it was the alcohol.
Manager: No, sir. We served only the finest vodka.

Brezhnev: Then it had to be the dancers.
Manager: No. We selected them carefully. To be hired, a dancer had to be a party member for at least 40 years.

[buwaya]

The Philippines is almost uniquely vulnerable to any power in a position to threaten interdiction via sea and sky. It is a bunch of islands that cannot even maintain its internal economy without seaborne and airborne trade.

Besides the Chinese navy, China has @ 600 fighter-bombers and other aircraft with the range, from South China/Hainan, to paralyze the Philippine domestic economy and shut off its international exports and imports.

The Philippines can be brought to its knees in a few months without a single Chinese soldier setting foot on it, though it would be entirely feasible for China to seize an island or two, which would not be too difficult as, without air/naval superiority, the Philippine armed forces would be unable to reinforce the local island forces. The other problem with the Philippines, strategically, is that any land position can be outflanked by an amphibious landing. Its got endless beaches. Without sufficient air/naval forces or a superpower to provide these, reliably, resistance is futile.

What the Phils most badly needs strategically is a modern air-defense system and air force that can credibly threaten high casualties to a Chinese air and naval attack. I figure this will cost, at minimum, @$50Billion, and at least $10Billion in annual operating costs.