Posted on 09/06/2019 7:22:27 AM PDT by Red Badger
A new poll has some astonishing news for those who keep seeing President Trump losing in polls in head-to-head competition with the leading Democratic Party presidential candidates Democrats: All three leading Democratic candidates — former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) — have lower favorability ratings than President Trump. Current Time 0:29 Duration 0:41 Report: Jason Greenblatt, Key Player In Middle East Peace Plan, To Leave Trump Administration
The in-depth, comprehensive poll from The Economist and YouGov, taken between September 1-3, showed 43% of respondents with a favorable response to Trump; 29% had a "very favorable" reaction and an additional 14% had a "somewhat favorable" response.
Among the three leading Democrats, only 40% had a favorable reaction to Biden, with a paltry 17% of respondents having a "very favorable" reaction and an additional 23% with a "somewhat favorable" reaction.
Warren got a total of 39% of respondents giving her a favorable reaction, 20% of whom had a "very favorable: reaction and 19% with a "somewhat favorable" reaction. Sanders got the most favorable reaction of the three top candidates as he barely edged out Biden with 41% of respondents having a favorable reaction, but he still ranked 2% behind Trump. 18% of voters gave Sanders a "very favorable" rating while 23% gave him a "somewhat favorable" response.
Another piece of evidence with good news for Trump: asked whether their candidate would defeat or lose to Trump in 2020, Biden was 10% underwater, with 32% of voters agreeing he would probably beat Trump but 42% saying he would probably lose. Warren fared even worse, at 16% underwater; 28% thought she would probably win and 44% thought she would probably lose, while Sanders brought up the rear at 17% underwater, as 29% of voters thought he would probably win but 46% thought he would probably lose. (Just a note: Senator Kamala Harris lagged far behind the top three candidates at a whopping 24% underwater.)
Voters 45 and older clearly preferred Trump to the Democrats; 46% of those aged 45-64 gave him a favorable rating while 54% of those over 65 felt the same way. Biden's numbers were 39% and 42%; Sanders' were 34% and 33%, and Warren's were 35% and 33%.
Younger voters skewed harder to the Left; Sanders got 53% of voters aged 18-29 and 45% of those aged 30-44. Warren's numbers were 48% and 44%; Biden's were 41% and 37%, while Trump's were 35% and 36%.
The fact that older voters skewed toward Trump is significant considering that the poll found that they are paying far more attention to the election than younger voters; 70% of voters over 65 said they were paying some attention or a lot of attention to the election; 65% of voters aged 45-64 felt the same way, while only 53% of voters younger than 45 said they were paying some or a lot of attention to the election.
Another interesting factoid: Despite the fact that all of their leading candidates trailed Trump and there are a plethora of other candidates behind them doing even worse, when asked if they were satisfied with the Democratic candidates running for president, a staggering 85% of Democrats said yes. In addition, 63% of Democrats said they were more interested in a candidate who could defeat Trump than one who agreed with them on most issues.
OK, we keep harping about how useless polling “REGISTERED” voters is as opposed to the more accurate “LIKELY” voters.
How about this poll? Did they poll “LIKELY” or “REGISTERED” voters?
Doesn’t matter. Wrong narrative. Never happened.
lol.
They didn’t publish the internals..........will go look for them...........
Sample: 1500 US Adult citizens
Conducted: September 1 - 3, 2019
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/o92jexdv2x/econToplines.pdf
It’s OK news. Not “GREAT” news. The right way to compare politicians who are equally well known is head to head favorability one vs the other, as with Trump and Biden. Everyone knows both and people have made up their mind.
For less known polticians like Warren, you need to look at the ratio of favorable to unfavorable, meaning of the people who know her what do they think? We can ssume that if she gets the nomination everyone else will eventually form an opinion before the election.
The OK good news is that Warren has 30% very unfavorable to 20% very unfavorable, which is a pretty bad ratio. Trump has 43% very unfavorable to 29% very unfavorable, which is almost exactly the same 1.5 to 1 ratio.
RE: Sample: 1500 US Adult citizens
Even more useless than the Q-Poll or Marquette polls which sample “REGISTERED” voters. What the heck does “Adult” citizens mean? Are they even registered?
Here’s The Whole POLL:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/o92jexdv2x/econToplines.pdf
Just 1500 people at random, voter registration not asked............
It’s a commie trick to get us to believe in polls again
There’s only one poll that counts...................
Unfortunately, massive voter fraud will change that final poll.
The media/left will keep trying to convince you that 2020 is going to be a race.. they will repeat this lie often and loudly trying to make it a reality... when in fact its going to be a blowout for Trump.
Short of an economic collapse or other black swan event, There is NO, absolutely NO path to victory for the Democrats.
Absolute best case for them is about 15 states and DC... Reality is, its HIGHLY HIGHLY HIGHLY unlikely they will see a best case scenario.
Depending on who actually gets the nomination, they could wind up not even seeing 10 states and DC.
The 2020 dynamic is shaping up, politically anyway, to be a repeat of 1972.... And a whole new generation of left wing whackadoos is about to relearn a lesson their grandparents and great grandparents learned nearly 50 years ago. Dems went off the deep end and put up a hard left wing candidate, and got crushed... To add insult to this, 2020 cycle is happening at a time when America is enjoying a 1984ish type of Economy!.... So a 1972 political dynamic, with a 1984 economy at his back.... There is NO PATH, not A ONE that can put A democrat, regardless of who that Democorat may be, in the White House.
The only question about 2020 is, how big are Trump’s coattails? Right now, I believe they are big enough that GOP (unless they shoot themselves in the foot) will almost certainly extend their lead in the senate, and right now I’d say odds are better than even they retake the house.
They are only getting away with it in places they already own, so I don’t worry about it........
I am going to predict California will be in play...............
The dead don’t answer the calls of pollsters. But they do vote.
My prediction, and I have posted it many times on many threads:
Trump will take EVERY state he took in 16.
Trump will win most if not all states he got 45% of the vote or better and lost in 16.
Trump will take the battle to states where he got beween 40 and 45% of the vote in 16 and will likely win a few of them as well.
Trump will win re-election by the greatest EC win since Reagan. No it won’t be 49-1 like 84 or 72, but it will be an absolute drubbing
I don’t see California being in play... Trump was beat there by almost 2 to 1 in 16. However, I will say that Trump will be sitting so comfortable that he will INDEED take the fight there... So he should very much outperform 16 there, but making it close enough to put it in play... If Trump puts Cali even remotely in Play... Democrats won’t win 5 states.
Polls are crap and polls this early are meaningless crap.
Wait till they turn from crap into propaganda and you won’t see results like this. Polls are tools for influencing voter behavior and as for the internals? I could write a spreadsheet macro based on the (RND) function that would produce very realistic but entirely made-up data.
As far as I can tell most polls are manufactured the same way. Sure they may have some people on phones but what assurance is there that that data ever goes into determining what is released to the public? Goebbels and Mao got nothing on them.
Polling outfits are like cake bakers.
Give me the money and you’ll get the cake you want................
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