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Reliable China insiders hint that this round of trade talks could lead to a ‘breakthrough’
CNBC ^ | Sept. 5, 2019 | Yun Li

Posted on 09/05/2019 8:31:58 AM PDT by Innovative

“There’s more possibility of a breakthrough between the two sides,” said Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a tabloid under the People’s Daily.

Hu has been spot on with the recent developments in the escalated trade war. Most recently, he had warned about the Chinese retaliation just hours before China’s official announcement.

A blog called Taoran Notes has been followed by analysts covering China and market participants for cues on the trade battle.

In a 1,200-word commentary, Taoran said it’s “very likely” there will be “new developments” in the upcoming trade talks.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: breakthrough; china; trade; trump
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To: babble-on

I don’t understand why Trump “needs a deal?” China trade is a very small part of overall USA GDP. Yes, the stock market could get a nice short-term boost from headlines, but the incidence of a future recession in the USA has almost nothing to do with China.

Re-orienting trade with China is a long-term, strategic project. We know China is a mercantilist country that plans trade to simply gain intellectual property, technology and to boost its own interests. Trump has finally forced America to recognize this, but its been a situation 40 years in the making, and fixing it will take many years.


21 posted on 09/05/2019 9:22:00 AM PDT by PGR88
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To: Innovative

There’s reference in the article to the US acceding to the fact “Chinese will cannot be crushed”.

The implication is the US is caving.

If so, Trump will not win reelection.


22 posted on 09/05/2019 9:27:09 AM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: FlipWilson

Bring it back to the USA. We have free trade between the 50 states. Americans need to work too.


23 posted on 09/05/2019 9:32:23 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: babble-on

“Trump needs a deal more than China does”

Absolutely not. The Communist Party in China could lose its grip on the people if they lose our market. They need us to the point that they could collapse without our consumer markets buying their cheap shite.

Also the PMI index today was a big upward number as well as ADP jobs index, we are not even close to a recession.

If the Fed gets its act together...we may not see a recession for 4-5 years. Manufacturing is only about 15% of our GDP...a downtrend exists there, but even without rate cuts we wont hit a recession for at least another 2-3 years.

Rates will get cut.
Trump wins.


24 posted on 09/05/2019 10:04:27 AM PDT by rbmillerjr
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To: rbmillerjr

Is it possible that the Chinese government is manipulating our stock market by shorting selected stocks after they back away from a deal?


25 posted on 09/05/2019 10:08:20 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (When you think about what the left is doing to America, think no further than Cloward-Piven)
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To: babble-on
The myth is our import tariff hurts our economy. It doesn't. The tariff protects domestic suppliers and help out economy, The only down side is they can be inflationary. There is no sign of inflation.

If you asked economists from the EU, S. Korea, Japan, Vietnam, India, China or Taiwan whether the protectionist tariffs, tariffs all of them use against the USA’s imports to their respective nations, were beneficial to their countries economy and in general a great thing, what would they tell you?

Myths are perpetuated by the intellectually lazy.

26 posted on 09/05/2019 10:12:46 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: EQAndyBuzz

I honestly don’t know if they have enough clout to do that. But Chinese policy points to “unrestricted warfare”. They will attack us by any means they see benefit in.

I would expect several, maybe even “many” trade enticements, followed by pulling the football away Lucy attacks.
The CCP is weaker than people think, albeit it’s ruthless hold on power. Hong Kong shows some weakness imo.

They do not care about putting their people in pain. But the will of the CCP only goes as far as they see themselves losing control and power.

They are our enemies and they are in a state of “unrestricted war”.


27 posted on 09/05/2019 10:14:20 AM PDT by rbmillerjr
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To: gaijin; Innovative

“I haven’t the tiniest doubt the (communists) will be lying”

No doubt. (communist lips moving = lying)

They just need a new tactic, because the costs on them (and the risks) are getting serious.


28 posted on 09/05/2019 10:55:41 AM PDT by BeauBo
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To: FlipWilson; central_va

“Better off with the tariffs.”

“The longer this goes, the less likely China will be able to unring the bell”

That is the big picture.

In the meantime, there will be lots of small movements and statements, to try to calm markets, or tactically delay some impacts (like possibly delaying the new tariffs scheduled to start on 1 Oct, just before “talks”).

But ultimately, we need a secure supply chain outside of communist control, and to rebuild our domestic capacity.


29 posted on 09/05/2019 11:07:00 AM PDT by BeauBo
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To: spokeshave

“when the US exits the Postal Union”

That is going to mostly hit small businesses in China, who market through Amazon and Alibaba and some mid-sized businesses who provide relatively modest-sized shipments of components and materials.

It will be a hit on Chinese producers and distributors, but not as significant overall as the tariffs.


30 posted on 09/05/2019 12:08:43 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: babble-on

I think you’re forgetting about the billions & billions of dollars that are being added to our treasury via the China tariffs, which will be used to offset any downward pressure on the economy. Trump knows what he’s doing, probably better than anyone.


31 posted on 09/05/2019 2:45:12 PM PDT by ResisTyr (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God " ~Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Mariner

Trump doesn’t cave.

He may just work it to allow the Chinese to “save face”, which is a big deal with the Chinese.


32 posted on 09/05/2019 6:48:38 PM PDT by Innovative
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To: ResisTyr

Those billions are first being taken out of our economy.

Americans pay the tariffs in the first place, not the Chinese.


33 posted on 09/06/2019 2:32:05 AM PDT by babble-on ("moderation is best in all things" - Hesiod)
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To: All

Should just put a tariff on all those hell-hole countries anyway. Trump can just say that they have no Environmental/ Labor laws so then the libs wouldn’t be able to disagree with him.


34 posted on 09/06/2019 5:19:24 AM PDT by escapefromboston (Free Assange)
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To: Innovative

Bad news if true, the tariffs should be higher and permanent.


35 posted on 09/06/2019 5:21:06 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: central_va

You still don’t get it

The tariffs were implemented to force concessions. The President is a businessman and knows tariffs are detrimental to Free Trade


36 posted on 09/06/2019 5:23:02 AM PDT by bert ( (KE. NP. N.btyC. +12) Progressives are existential American enemies)
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Comment #37 Removed by Moderator

To: mrs9x
China needs a deal more than we do. Their backs are up against the wall. They will not fold completely, but the US is definitely in the power position to dictate terms.

Partner, u r so correct that the Chicoms need us very badly since the U.S. economy is the biggest in the world.

The Chicoms are continuing to catch up very quickly though.

The companies that have set up offices in China are companies that have given away everything to the Chicoms and the kitchen sink.

The Chicoms have copied all of our engineering code books which are the electrical, civil, mechanical, etc. etc.

They have copied our engineering know how, expertise, experience, ingenuity, and the years it takes to develop these code books and know how behind he decisions. Not only do they have the U.S. code books they copy all the dwgs. and steal the intellectual designs of our products. Is this a win win situation for the Chicoms since they have been doing this from day one.

This is probably why we keep hearing about the theft of our property, copying our designs and the outright stealing of our property.

BTW, the code books are copied by the Chicoms word for word.

Every Freeper will agree that enough is enough of these favorable trade deals with the Chicoms.

38 posted on 09/06/2019 6:36:18 AM PDT by TheConservativeTejano (God Bless Texas...)
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To: TheConservativeTejano

What are these “code books”?

There is no “code book” to tell me (or some Chinese) how to make, on their own, a particularly effective fishing lure. They might be able to pick it up by studying fishing forums for a good while, but even then they’d mostly just be copying something existing, not figuring out something new from actual research on how fish brains work.

There is no “code book” to tell anyone how to make a superlative sounding loudspeaker (nor do I know of any designed without the input of non-mainland-Chinese engineers, unless they are copies.)

There is no “code book” to tell the Chinese how to make a sports car as fun to drive as my old Mazda MX-3 GS. Again, they might be able to copy it, but they’d likely miss some of the subtle stuff, and they’d almost certainly get undercut by cutting corners - a 90 % of the time Chinese pastime.

Now, don’t get me wrong. If a Chinese company hires a few Western or Japanese engineers, they can be “dangerous”. In a few areas where they have long background, such as ceramics, and corner cutting can be rejected by a very tough management attitude, the Chinese can be REALLY good. I do have some direct experience with this: Of all the suppliers my company tried, there was one that was just flat out better quality than the US competition - and lower price, too. The Chinese are in many cases willing to do capital investment that US firms won’t, thereby beating us in automation of factories, and / or efficiency, even before the low wages come into play. But, on the flip side, my experience with Chinese engineers and techs is that they do NOT in general have our effective ingenuity: There is a degree of cultural rigidity that tends to suppress it. A few break that mold, or partially do, and those that come here for several years are most likely to succeed in that. But, they are the exception.

The problem is that the US consumer has been dumbed down in many of these things, therefor mostly copied commodities and low-bar designs of questionable quality suffice — and here the Chinese can make a killing. Most US manufacturers do too little, anymore, in most areas of endeavor, to develop a demanding and discerning market. I’ve seen it from the inside. Too many US companies are lazy in this regard.

Compare this to, of all things, the thriving winery business that has popped up in all sorts of places in the US. (Most anywhere where decent grapes will grow.) Does Wally-World or Kroger or IGA sell cheap Chinese wine? Not in my area. They have product from many US locations, and particularly a good selection from local wineries, which wineries have built up a darn good reputation AND a customer expectation of a good product at a good price.

That’s not a comparable business? Ok, look at Subaru, churning out vehicles as fast as they can, in Lafayette, Indiana. They are increasing market share every year, year after year after year.

Having been involved in design and manufacturing for a long time, I say: 1) Don’t strangle ourselves @ home. 2) Stomp on the IP theft as hard as possible (we can then move ahead quickly.) 3) Fair trade deals. 4) Somehow refocus consumers on lasting quality.

Given those things, we’ll smoke ‘em (the Chinese.)


39 posted on 09/07/2019 12:55:42 AM PDT by Paul R. (The Lib / Socialist goal: Total control of nothing left worth controlling.)
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To: mrs9x

“China needs a deal more than we do.”
>
But Trump needs a deal more than
everyone else does.


40 posted on 09/07/2019 2:47:43 AM PDT by granada
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