Anti-Trump Bias In Economic Forecasts

Forbes ^ | September 1, 2019 | Bill Conerly

[2ndDivisionVet]

Are economic forecasts biased downward because of economists’ antipathy against President Trump? I don’t know the answer, but I’m pondering the question.

We economists tend to be well educated, often from prestigious universities. We range from liberal to conservative or libertarian in our politics, but we are part of what many call the elite. We have chatted with senators and governors and Federal Reserve board members. We’re quoted in newspapers and interviewed on television. We are part of the group that Donald Trump sneered at in his electoral campaign: “I want you to imagine how much better our future can be if we declare independence from the elites who’ve led us to one financial and foreign policy disaster after another.”

Opposition to the president is illustrated by Bill Dudley, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who recently wrote “There’s even an argument that the election itself falls within the Fed’s purview. After all, Trump’s reelection arguably presents a threat to the U.S. and global economy….”

[Fido969]

Nobel Prize economist Paul Krugman in 2016 promising a “Trump Recession”

[pas]

And AOC has an economics degree.

[VikingMom]

An almost honest assessment from an economist...admitting that their dislike of Donald Trump as a person affects their perceptions and predictions!

Just like many politicians of BOTH parties, those who live in the “bubble” of Washington DC, have zero idea of, or interest in, what is happening in the rest of the country!

[Aria]

Economists say the tariffs hurt the poor most. But doesn’t sending our manufacturing to China help create the poor in the first place? Look how many new poor there were under Obama who he put on food stamps. Oh...more government dept as a result also....which leads to higher taxes...which leads to companies growing less..which leads to.....etc etc

So I don’t get the economists argument.

[Intolerant in NJ]

My favorite story intro from CNBC a few days back - The Trump economy is good, but no one knows how long that will last....

[Dark Knight]

Economists work for banks or big business (multinationals) or they hope to. Since they do influence elections as this article stated and they have the “world view” of course they oppose PDJT. I read what Krugman got the Nobel for...not exactly brilliant or earth shattering. Wonder what the real reason was?

DK

[17th Miss Regt]

Media: “Come on, recession! Sis-boom-bah!”

[roadcat]

And AOC has an economics degree.

AOC is so pessimistic that she is warning us not to buy green bananas, or something to that effect. "Oh no, we're all gonna die under the Trump presidency!". Economics degree? That got her into bartending? I guess she figured everyone would get drunk while the world fell apart.

[From The Deer Stand]

Today the media and Democrats are “talking down the economy.” Remember in 2001 President George Bush was criticized by the media and Democrats for “talking down the economy.” My, how times change.

[volunbeer]

There is no doubt that the media, comprised mostly of leftists, and the “brightest minds on economics, comprised mostly of globalists, are talking down the economy.

They hate Trump. Period.

The irony is that Trump has shown them to be wrong more often than not, but all they have and know is “conventional wisdom.”

[Vendome]

“Are economic forecasts biased downward because of economists’ antipathy against President Trump?”

The question answers itself...

[Maine Mariner]

Krugman did some path breaking work in international economics and won the John Bates Clark medal. An award giving by the American Economic Association every two years to an economist under the age of 40 who has made significant contributions to economic theory.

I cannot stand the man and his politics but his work on international trade theory is world class.

[Chgogal]

What about the federal gasoline tax? Elitists are so full of it!

[adorno]

And AOC has an economics degree.

And AOC has an economics "D", I agree.

[DoodleBob]

To be fair, nobody is fully objective. We all have SOME baggage. The issue is whether or not you can tease out the bias.

Here is a chart of actual vs The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), compiled by the Philadelphia Fed since 1990 forecasts over several decades:

If I eyeball it, here is my assessment of consensus over/under prediction by Administration:

Johnson through Carter: mixed to generally over prediction
Reagan- under prediction
Bush I - over predication
Clinton - no bias early on then graduating to under prediction
Wubya-over prediction
Obama - over prediction

Thus, using this data, it is hard to argue that there was some systemic bias. Your mileage may vary.

[CMailBag]

“”often from prestigious universities”” Which are overloaded with libtard professors.

[july4thfreedomfoundation]

FU Bill Dudley! You’re a dud!

[Phil DiBasquette]

Wrong, but keep repeating that to yourself.

[snarkytart]

Yea, no sh*t. it’s called free campaigning for the democrats in 2020. Did you think they’d do anything OTHER than try to kill the economy or make it seem bad? lol