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Posted on 08/28/2019 1:34:36 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Dorian battered St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and brushing Puerto Rico. Taking aim at the Florida Atlantic Coastline, Hurricane Dorian is projected to be a major hurricane (Category 3) at landfall.
Satellite Imagery Dorian
NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Florida Radar Loop (with storm track overlay)
Buoy Data with Storm Track overlay
The 12z is further north than the 6z.
Yes, and that's good news (perhaps temporarily) for FL West Coasters like me.
As a recent FL transplant to the Fort Myers area, we were here for Irma. I was telling my husband the same thing just this morning. I reminded him how Irma was supposed to hit the east coast which they evacuated. Somehow it ended up making landfall in SW FL.
I think your projection will misinform folks here .
Dated stamp Sept 6
“As a recent FL transplant to the Fort Myers area...”
As someone familiar with the area, please accept my condolences for ending up there. There has truly gotta be something wrong with the water or some kind of genetic flaw with many in that area.
Hopefully, you’re in a gated community where your interactions with the locals will be fewer.
Actually most are from other states I’ve met very few natives. We actually do hate it and are thinking of relocating in the next two years.
LOL.... Have you had the pleasure of visiting, Clewiston? Good grief, that is a very strange crowd.
Here’s a link to the Orlando Sentinel about how Dorian could affect them. The reporter has been updating the story every few hours...
Not if they read the text that proceeds the picture.
True landfall near Emerald Isle, NC Lower Outer Banks or down to Myrtle Beach.
This will be the case if the storm “pauses” in North-Mid Center of the Bahamas— who will get plastered in Eleuthra and Nassau— taking max winds at 2 O’Clock position in the counterclockwise wind rotation (the worst place to be in a hurricane in this hemisphere— 2 O’Clock position, with storm path direction being at 12 “Noon” on the circle of rotation). After the “pause” or slowdown— the upper level Low that was drawing it West will move away over Florida Bay , Florida Straits and the Keys- and disconnect the “low”— handing it off as it were to the prominent descending Low coming down all the way from New England, matched in the West with a huge High area/trough. Will pull it North from where ever it finally “pauses”-— IF it does.
Praying for the pause to occur well out to sea/in the unfortunate but highly experienced Bahamas— and thus spare the entire FL Peninsula. Tides will be high and flooding possible but not a CAT 4 waltzing up the coast. This would be best scenario.
Summary Of 200 PM AST...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...About 445 MI E of the Northwestern Bahamas
About 625 MI E of West Palm Beach FL
Max Sustained Winds...115 MPH...
Moving...NW at 10 MPH...
Minimum Pressure...970 MB...
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 mi.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Sounds like NOAA just headed out again for another look.
“Have you had the pleasure of visiting, Clewiston?”
Way too damned many times. If anyone out there has wondered where “Florida Man” may have been born and raised, Lee County is as good a guess as any other.
Bad county government, bad cops, bad roads, bad schools, bad attitudes, bad social skills, etc...
Even Larry The Cable Guy wouldn’t wanna live there...
Sugar Can, Capt. For a hundred years— Sugar Cane. Now with some outbuild of tract cheapo homes. Lake Okeechobee— an inland sea.
Time was the cane was all owned by General Motors Corporation, its U.S. Sugar Division. 50s- 60s time period. Seasonal sugar cane cutters— all Jamaicans flown in to cut and burn the cane fields, with temporary housing, special police, and the locals who could, stayed the hell away. Mechanical harvesting now. Belle Glade.. same way-— oh, and at one time coupled with appalling public health issues— highest AIDS census in the US.
Largest whole orange juice processor in the US is in Clewiston area— Snively Citrus (olde Florida). Bit of trivia for the rocknroller banana types— Gram Parsons was from Lakeland, FL to a Snively mother, and a drunk crazy father (whom they sent to Waycross, GA to run a citrus wooden crate making company- he was a major drunk, blew his brains out, and the mom moved to New Orleans and married Mr. Parsons who changed Gram’s last name. Did him no good— he O’D out West, a rich trust fund stoner “rocker”).
There is a lot of oddness in Clewiston with all the sugar and Agri history— long growing season, and not much to do— unless you can get to the west coast and fish.
Keeps drifting Northward, and that right turn could occur before landfall, especially if she slows down some.
Yes, that is the “hand off” that Bernie Rayno Chief Meteorologist for Accuweather was talking about-— that time period when the LOW to the SW of the storm— separates from it and no longer drawing it West. The orange dipping down band represents the Low to the NE North bunched up against a large Midwest High convergance-— creating the “trough” that picks up and draws the storm North.
If this happens faster than the model— ie. if Dorian hasn’t crossed the longitude of Andros Island in the Bahamas- it could skip FL altogether. Tons of rain and tidal things in any case all the way up.
I’ve spent a fair amount of time out on the Outer Banks of NC, and have found Windfinder.com to be accurate and useful, plus it’s fun to play with, the different tools plus the visual representation is very helpful.
It shows a sort of glancing landfall around Jupiter, FL then running right up the coast and into the warm sounds of NC. I’ve got it set on 9/3 in the following link, but you can advance it several more days, or go back to current time, whatever you prefer:
https://www.windfinder.com/#5/34.4703/-87.9126/2019-09-04T00:00Z
BTW Joe Bastardi of Weather Bell Analytics can be heard talking about the strange anomaly of the projected “hand off” of the upper level low seen in the Euro model but not the GFS— and called it “strange” and not understandable in the projection. These all being computer projections. Pointed this out last Saturday on his free 14 minute weatherbell.com summary video at the bottom of the page.
Something made him change his mind from the noaa nhc forecast— because as Bernie Rayno says== “actions are being taken, costly massive human actions, on the basis of these projected paths”. For example— if somehow the “handoff “does not occur and Dorian tracks S-SW into the Lower Keys— without prior evacuation-— just monster horrible result.
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