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Posted on 08/28/2019 1:34:36 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Dorian battered St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and brushing Puerto Rico. Taking aim at the Florida Atlantic Coastline, Hurricane Dorian is projected to be a major hurricane (Category 3) at landfall.
Satellite Imagery Dorian
NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Florida Radar Loop (with storm track overlay)
Buoy Data with Storm Track overlay
Fwiw, I concur!
They’ve been having it come in at Central Brevard County......Kennedy Space Center is moving their huge booster to the VAB (Vehicle Assembly Building) tomorrow morning......it will take 8 hours to do the job
I would suspect that if and when a monster storm ever hits that area, it'll be wiped out.
Here are some preliminary National Park closings...
Nothing yet on Canaveral National Seashore - but I’m sure they’ll be announcing a closing soon.
Ukmet has been the most accurate inside of 96 hours. And they have landfall inside if 96 hours so it must be taken seriously.
If this comes in as a Cat 4 I suspect you could be right
There are two narrow causeways miles apart and evacuations have to be managed carefully
We have a relative on Cocoa Beach who is being stubborn about leaving.....
.....she said she’s waiting to be told (even though she has a sister waiting for her on the other side with a room)
We tried to impress if she waits for the official evacuation, she will find herself stuck on the causeway with thousands of others!
As of right now, there are no closings in any of the Florida State Parks - but I anticipate that’ll change...
https://www.floridastateparks.org/StormUpdates
I have lived on the barrier islands in Brevard since the early 80’s. They have the evacuations down pat and have been relatively orderly and timely for the last 5 or so years. I’ve evacuated to Orlando many times and plan to head out Saturday unless the forecast changes.
It looks like Kennedy Space Center’s Visitor Complex will be closed on September 1st and 2nd.
On August 31st, all bus tours of KSC are cancelled.
https://www.kennedyspacecenter.com/info/hurricane-dorian
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Oh no! There is the WSW bend that the other models namely the Euro/UK/ICON have been insisting. UKMet was the very first model to show the south hook.
Here’s the hurricane thread if you haven’t seen it. Or have time to look.
Came home, grabbed bite, have hospital meeting now, back later tonight.
Not loving the looks of this for us in Brevard, Seminole, Volusia counties. Lots of “concern” here. But! Anything can change with this one.
Good to see you! Here we go again, he?
So it looks like that change is around Orlando. Is that actual expected change? The little spinning bit?
Waay too early to tell - look at Irma last year - was forecast to go up the east side of FLorida and instead went up the west side. I think it’s a pretty safe bet that Dorian will make landfall along the east Florida coast, but the steering currents will weaken after that. Current GFS run has Dorian meandering across Florida for three days.
For sure, this sucker might do anything. I was just startled for a sec by the squiggle!
Ditto on the good-to-sees! still gtx?
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